PA-Sen: Barletta is running

[Heisenberg]

He's not going to run, he wants too much to keep his safe gerrymandered seat.

It may not be safe for him in coming years, it was only R+1 before the election and Clinton outright won it last month.

[Heisenberg]

I am the most moderate person on this forum, especially compared to you.

Most moderate if you average out all the different positions you've had over time. Seriously, you show no consistency in your views. Anyway, the title of most moderate has to go to Wulfric. Kingpoleon would probably be second.

[Heisenberg]

Lou Barletta would be the strongest challenger, IMO: He can keep a lot of Trump voters who usually vote Dem, and would probably hold decent in the suburbs since he comes across as inoffensive. Tim Murphy would be my second choice, being from the Southwest part of the state. If neither run, then Mike Fitzpatrick would also be solid, he's out of office so he can focus on the campaign full-time.

[Heisenberg]

Lou Barletta would be the strongest challenger, IMO: He can keep a lot of Trump voters who usually vote Dem, and would probably hold decent in the suburbs since he comes across as inoffensive. Tim Murphy would be my second choice, being from the Southwest part of the state. If neither run, then Mike Fitzpatrick would also be solid, he's out of office so he can focus on the campaign full-time.

Casey would wipe the floor with Barletta.  The man is hardly inoffensive and has a history of being an anti-immigration nut IIRC.  In any case, you guys aren't beating Casey, especially not in a Trump midterm.

I know there are much better targets, but my point is Barletta is the type of Republican who'd be popular in historically-D areas that went for Trump. He just screams "America First" all over him.

[Heisenberg]

I've changed my list of most electable people:
1. Mike Fitzpatrick
2. Ryan Costello
3. Charlie Dent
4. Jim Cawley
5. Jake Corman
6. Mary Beth Buchanan

I would've put Dent at one or two tbh.

I disagree.  A pro-choice nominee will lose more social conservative votes than they would gain from suburban moderates, relative to an inoffensive pro-lifer like Costello or Fitzpatrick.

True, I see your point.

Dent, despite voting for making the Hyde Amendment permanent, voted against defunding PP, and against the Pain Capable act (or whatever it's called). If Trump lost, Dent would have been of the right wing of the party to win, but he would probably isn't going to work too well with Trump, and he would get annihilated by Casey in Northeast and Southwest Pennsylvania. It's also no guarantee he'd do well in the Philly Suburbs, where someone like Costello or Fitzpatrick would probably stop the bleeding. Also, Casey might make the prospect of Lehigh County controlling both of PA's Senate seats an issue in the campaign. Dent isn't that good, I would love to see Mike Fitzpatrick run as wave insurance.

[Heisenberg]

Rick Saccone is in

Barely above a some-dude. Even if Republicans totally whiff on recruitment there will be stronger candidates

Looked him up and he seems to be a religious right-type guy. Not a good candidate, someone else will probably run as well and beat him.

[Heisenberg]

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.

I'd say:
1. Costello
2. M. Fitzpatrick
3. Meehan (if he pulls a Gardner)
4. T. Murphy
5. Barletta?

Dent is overrated. He's from the wrong part of the state, and won't be able to pick up the populist support Trump got, and is pretty socially liberal. I think Casey should dispatch him pretty easily.

[Heisenberg]

Costello would probably be the strongest candidate, followed by Dent.

I'd say:
1. Costello
2. M. Fitzpatrick
3. Meehan (if he pulls a Gardner)
4. T. Murphy
5. Barletta?

Dent is overrated. He's from the wrong part of the state, and won't be able to pick up the populist support Trump got, and is pretty socially liberal. I think Casey should dispatch him pretty easily.

I am sorry but this part is objectively false.

The Lehigh Valley almost always mirrors the statewide result. Dent has flaws yes, but being from the wrong region is not one of them.

Sorry, I worded it poorly.
The first three are from the Philly Burbs, and that helps as they should "stop the bleeding".
Toomey, the Class 3 Senator, is also from Lehigh. The fourth and fifth are from districts that contain at least some historically-D territory, and Barletta did really well for a Republican in the old PA-11, and was pretty popular in Hazelton. Maybe it's just me, but I prefer geographic diversity between the two senators of large states, rather than one county controlling both seats. Maybe some Pennsylvanians agree, but perhaps I'm overstating this.