Obama/Trump voters

[Angel of Death]

Anyone able to make an educated guess how many there were?

[SingingAnalyst]

Anyone able to make an educated guess how many there were?

I'd estimate 3 million--mostly white, middle-income, working people, many in the Midwest. (Macomb Co, MI went from a 208000-192000 Obama margin in 2012 to a 224000-176000 Trump margin in 2016).

[Mr. Morden]

Anyone able to make an educated guess how many there were?

I'd estimate 3 million--mostly white, middle-income, working people, many in the Midwest. (Macomb Co, MI went from a 208000-192000 Obama margin in 2012 to a 224000-176000 Trump margin in 2016).

But we still don't really know how much of the shift is because of voters switching from Obama '12 to Trump '16 as opposed to a different group of voters showing up at the polls, do we?  The voter rolls do tell you if someone voted in a given election or not, so someone could put together an estimate of how much voter turnover there was, but I haven't seen anyone attempt to do that in this case.