Likely next US districts after 2020

[Padfoot]

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but it seems like the Republicans are going to have to lose a seat in Ohio. All the incumbent Democrats seem safe, and if we get lucky, we'll finally get a Democratic seat in Hamilton County. It's going to split it up and not look monstrous.

Though shame hasn't stopped gerrymanders before.

Also Ohio has a bipartisan commission that draws the districts now.  Although it's really a half-assed redistricting reform, it is something.   

If they draw OH-9 "normal" and draw Hamilton county's district "normal" then I think there's at least some chance of a 5th Dem seat.

The Ohio legislature only passed redistricting reform for its own legislative districts.  Congressional redistricting reform was blocked by Boehner and his allies under the guise of waiting to see how the Supreme Court ruled on redistricting commissions.  Congressional redistricting power still lies with whoever controls the state legislature.  Kasich has publicly declared his support for Congressional redistricting reform though so not all hope is lost.

[Heisenberg]

^In Ohio, aren't some of the redistricting commission members elected row officers, and the others selected by the majority parties in each house of the legislature?

Also, regardless, I imagine both parties would want to chop up Jim Jordan's district, I assume?

[muon2]

Proportionality doesn't come into play often, and when it does it is usually used as a factor in evaluating whether a section 2 violation may have occurred. If a map comes under strict scrutiny due to a section 2 claim, then adherence to neutral criteria would presumably weigh in favor of the state's map showing a compelling state interest.

What has changed in this decade is the relaxation of the 50% BVAP standard. 50% BVAP is indicative of the need to provide a minority district. The district itself need not have 50% BVAP if it can be shown to be likely to elect the preferred representative of the black minority.

But if the map otherwise adheres to good line drawing metrics, is it legal to blow off a minority district that is short of 50% BVAP? Sure it is legal to draw such a district (at least where the minority population is contiguous, and probably even if not, as long as there is not another way to have one more minority CD, as opposed to an alternative way that does use the contiguous minority population), and probably more often than not would be good policy to draw such a district. SCOTUS has not so ruled, and is it clear that any lower court has so ruled?

I would normally think so. At a conference last summer, it was clear that the national Dem strategy is to use the courts to try to force the formation of sub-50% BVAP districts to maximize their overall delegation. The Pubs haven't realized that their only defense may be using strict neutral standards. As is generally the case with the majority party, they don't want to recognize change and simply hope to preserve a successful status quo.

[windjammer]

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but it seems like the Republicans are going to have to lose a seat in Ohio. All the incumbent Democrats seem safe, and if we get lucky, we'll finally get a Democratic seat in Hamilton County. It's going to split it up and not look monstrous.

Though shame hasn't stopped gerrymanders before.

Also Ohio has a bipartisan commission that draws the districts now.  Although it's really a half-assed redistricting reform, it is something.   

If they draw OH-9 "normal" and draw Hamilton county's district "normal" then I think there's at least some chance of a 5th Dem seat.

Ohio has a bipartisan commission for state legislature districts, not for congressional districts.

[Tintrlvr]

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but it seems like the Republicans are going to have to lose a seat in Ohio. All the incumbent Democrats seem safe, and if we get lucky, we'll finally get a Democratic seat in Hamilton County. It's going to split it up and not look monstrous.

Though shame hasn't stopped gerrymanders before.

Also Ohio has a bipartisan commission that draws the districts now.  Although it's really a half-assed redistricting reform, it is something.   

If they draw OH-9 "normal" and draw Hamilton county's district "normal" then I think there's at least some chance of a 5th Dem seat.

Ohio has a bipartisan commission for state legislature districts, not for congressional districts.

I believe it does for congressional districts also, starting in 2020. As I recall, for whatever reason, the bill that put the commission in place applied only to the state legislature for 2010 and deferred its application to congressional districts until 2020.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but it seems like the Republicans are going to have to lose a seat in Ohio. All the incumbent Democrats seem safe, and if we get lucky, we'll finally get a Democratic seat in Hamilton County. It's going to split it up and not look monstrous.

Though shame hasn't stopped gerrymanders before.

Also Ohio has a bipartisan commission that draws the districts now.  Although it's really a half-assed redistricting reform, it is something.   

If they draw OH-9 "normal" and draw Hamilton county's district "normal" then I think there's at least some chance of a 5th Dem seat.

Ohio has a bipartisan commission for state legislature districts, not for congressional districts.

I believe it does for congressional districts also, starting in 2020. As I recall, for whatever reason, the bill that put the commission in place applied only to the state legislature for 2010 and deferred its application to congressional districts until 2020.

It doesn't. Need a second referendum for all that.

[muon2]

I'm probably being overly optimistic, but it seems like the Republicans are going to have to lose a seat in Ohio. All the incumbent Democrats seem safe, and if we get lucky, we'll finally get a Democratic seat in Hamilton County. It's going to split it up and not look monstrous.

Though shame hasn't stopped gerrymanders before.

Also Ohio has a bipartisan commission that draws the districts now.  Although it's really a half-assed redistricting reform, it is something.   

If they draw OH-9 "normal" and draw Hamilton county's district "normal" then I think there's at least some chance of a 5th Dem seat.

Ohio has a bipartisan commission for state legislature districts, not for congressional districts.

I believe it does for congressional districts also, starting in 2020. As I recall, for whatever reason, the bill that put the commission in place applied only to the state legislature for 2010 and deferred its application to congressional districts until 2020.

It doesn't. Need a second referendum for all that.

I thought the legislature could assign Congressional maps to the commission by statute if they wanted.