Likely next US districts after 2020

[jimrtex]

He'll complain all day about the Arizona map Mathis made, but find a 11-3 delegation in a 48/52 vote state totally acceptable since the 11 is R.

My definition of "gerrymander" is result-oriented districting.

Lol...okay, please don't tell me you find the NC map non-result oriented?'

Greensboro and Winston-Salem are different metropolitan areas. Forsyth and Gulford are too large for a single congressional district, which probably result in the two counties being placed in different congressional districts.

Chapel Hill and Raleigh are two different Metro areas as well, that sure didn't stop the NC GOP from putting them in the same district of NC-4, how convenient for them (or result oriented, whichever you prefer).

Raleigh is larger than a district. Together the two metropolitan areas are roughly the equivalent of two districts.

Okay...so if it's not "results oriented" why not give Raleigh (Wake County) it's own district

Look at the two UCC involved, and explain how you are going to draw two districts in the two UCCs, and one entirely in Wake County. You might want to actually draw a map.

Why is it needed to draw two districts inside the two UCCs?   They certainly didn't have two districts in the two UCCs in the previous map.

They didn't have enough wisdom to utilize UCCs.

[libertpaulian]

Ugh, Texas is still mushrooming?

Yes.  At some point, Dems just need to accept reality and take their strategy where the people are.

To be clear, I don't necessarily have anything against Texas in particular--I've never been there; I have no strong opinion on it--I just think it's ridiculous and unsustainable that any one state should keep growing and growing and growing and growing like this.

It's humongous land-wise.  Plenty of room for population growth.

[/]

Texas's population density is pretty low...

[Sol]

Given that mixed control is likely to be the case in Minnesota, I wonder what some sort of incumbent protection scheme looks like with the loss of the seat. I wouldn't be surprised if they do a Duluth-to-Fargo district given that both parties have reason to support such a scheme now, and then combine Peterson with Emmer, with maybe the upper hand to Peterson but where probably no other Democrat else could win. Maybe also shore up Walz by giving him northern Dakota County.

[Miles]

^ The Republicans proposed something like that last time. They wanted to give Peterson an Iron Range to Dakotas seat and Cravaack a safe seat south of it.

[Nyvin]

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

The Virginia map is 7-4 currently,  I really don't think even that is very sustainable going into 2020 with the way VA-10 is going (and Loudon County's growth and trend).   The most likely map will be 6R-5D IMO.   The three NOVA districts will get sucked more into the NOVA area and lose their Republican exurbs.   VA-1 might possibly move Dem a little, but not enough to really matter.

Once district results in NC are available we'll know more about that state.

[Gass3268]

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

The Virginia map is 7-4 currently,  I really don't think even that is very sustainable going into 2020 with the way VA-10 is going (and Loudon County's growth and trend).   The most likely map will be 6R-5D IMO.   The three NOVA districts will get sucked more into the NOVA area and lose their Republican exurbs.   VA-1 might possibly move Dem a little, but not enough to really matter.

Once district results in NC are available we'll know more about that state.

Also, it looks like VA results by state senate district were just released.  Counting only Election Day ballots, Clinton has won 22 of the 40 districts, and by at least 6% in 21 of them.  Trump is barely up by <500 votes in SD-07 in the Norfolk area.  Given that absentee ballots are uniformly more D than countywide results in VA, it's quite likely Clinton won 23 districts.  She won the seat Dems would need to tie the chamber by 13%.  If VA Dems flip 2 seats and get to 21 in 2019, they are assured of a say in the next congressional redistricting.  If they flip one seat to tie the chamber and hold the LG office, they would also be assured of a say in the next redistricting.

Nice, a fair state senate map probably locks in a Democratic majority. Fingers crossed...

[windjammer]

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

The Virginia map is 7-4 currently,  I really don't think even that is very sustainable going into 2020 with the way VA-10 is going (and Loudon County's growth and trend).   The most likely map will be 6R-5D IMO.   The three NOVA districts will get sucked more into the NOVA area and lose their Republican exurbs.   VA-1 might possibly move Dem a little, but not enough to really matter.

Once district results in NC are available we'll know more about that state.

Also, it looks like VA results by state senate district were just released.  Counting only Election Day ballots, Clinton has won 22 of the 40 districts, and by at least 6% in 21 of them.  Trump is barely up by <500 votes in SD-07 in the Norfolk area.  Given that absentee ballots are uniformly more D than countywide results in VA, it's quite likely Clinton won 23 districts.  She won the seat Dems would need to tie the chamber by 13%.  If VA Dems flip 2 seats and get to 21 in 2019, they are assured of a say in the next congressional redistricting.  If they flip one seat to tie the chamber and hold the LG office, they would also be assured of a say in the next redistricting.

Where did you find these results?

[Nyvin]

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

The Virginia map is 7-4 currently,  I really don't think even that is very sustainable going into 2020 with the way VA-10 is going (and Loudon County's growth and trend).   The most likely map will be 6R-5D IMO.   The three NOVA districts will get sucked more into the NOVA area and lose their Republican exurbs.   VA-1 might possibly move Dem a little, but not enough to really matter.

Once district results in NC are available we'll know more about that state.

Also, it looks like VA results by state senate district were just released.  Counting only Election Day ballots, Clinton has won 22 of the 40 districts, and by at least 6% in 21 of them.  Trump is barely up by <500 votes in SD-07 in the Norfolk area.  Given that absentee ballots are uniformly more D than countywide results in VA, it's quite likely Clinton won 23 districts.  She won the seat Dems would need to tie the chamber by 13%.  If VA Dems flip 2 seats and get to 21 in 2019, they are assured of a say in the next congressional redistricting.  If they flip one seat to tie the chamber and hold the LG office, they would also be assured of a say in the next redistricting.

That's definitely positive news,  hopefully with a say in the next redistricting the VA Dems can do something about that god awful travesty that's the current VA State House map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Texas's population density is pretty low...

Don't worry. By 2050 we will have a population density on par with New Jersey, because y'all, everything is big in texas.

[jamestroll]

I have a great, innovative, never before thought of idea for congressional redistricting.

Require districts to make geographic sense!

[muon2]

I have a great, innovative, never before thought of idea for congressional redistricting.

Require districts to make geographic sense!

You mean, just follow the muon rules.

[Virginiá]

Here: http://www.vpap.org/updates/2394-new-visual-election-results-state-senate-districts/

And as you can see, this is in a dataset where Clinton only won by ~70K statewide when her actual margin with the absentees is over 200K.

Thank you Skill! They also posted the House of Delegates numbers too:

http://www.vpap.org/updates/2398-new-visual-election-results-house-delegates-districts/
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/2016-presidential-results-by-house

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I was very interested in this. I would have liked to compare to 2012, but I don't have time to search for that and it doesn't seem immediately available. Delegates are up for reelection next year, and I think how Republicans perform there might be a harbinger of sorts in regards to future off-year & 2018 election(s) under Trump's administration, or possibly at the very least just in Virginia. An altered HoD map is possible that could make it easier for Democrats if the upcoming SCOTUS ruling is favorable (but also may make the Senate map a bit more difficult?)

If Trump is to be toxic for Republicans, I'd expect some sharp losses for VA State Republicans over the next 4 years. Those numbers suggest the VAGOP holds 17 HoD districts that Clinton won. There is some potential here for sure.

Anywho, we'll see!

-

Edit: I completely missed your own post edit regarding this. oh well lol

[krazen1211]

Nice, a fair state senate map probably locks in a Democratic majority. Fingers crossed...

Haha, what?

The current Virginia Senate map is a brutal Democratic gerrymander. The Republican party of Virginia rallied the people and won a majority of the seats.


This is truly amazing. A deal was made such that the Republicans in the House of Delegates drew that map, and the Democrats in the Senate drew that map. After making that deal and bundling the plans into 1 bill liberals are now complaining about their side of the deal because they lost the elections!

Even the Congressional map is basically a Democratic gerrymander as it is substantially similar to those proposed in the Virginia Senate in 2011.

How rich.

[krazen1211]

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

Of course not. Another 8/3 map could and would have been drawn if the Democrats had not adjourned the special session to do so this year. First order of business if a Republican is elected in 2017 would be to take back the stolen 4th district. The 2001 iteration of the 3rd and 4th districts were already cleared by the 4th circuit court in 2004.

[Nyvin]

How about NC and VA?  Is 11R/3D viable in NC, or will the legislature have to concede the new seat?  I would presume 8R/3D is no longer viable in VA with what is happening in Richmond and outer NOVA.  If it meets court standards, Republicans would probably want to draw the second black opportunity seat from Richmond to Woodbridge along I-95 to shore up VA-10 and VA-07.

Of course not. Another 8/3 map could and would have been drawn if the Democrats had not adjourned the special session to do so this year. First order of business if a Republican is elected in 2017 would be to take back the stolen 4th district. The 2001 iteration of the 3rd and 4th districts were already cleared by the 4th circuit court in 2004.

They didn't adjourn a special session () the map was struck down by the courts, and then the VA legislature couldn't draw a map (due to GOP incompetence, not the dems...) and the courts ended up drawing the maps.

The map drawn in 2001 was not the same as the map drawn in 2010.

Considering Hillary won Virginia by 5 points I would definitely not call a 4th Dem seat "stolen".  

It's really a moot point anyway - an 8-3 map just flat out isn't possible anymore.   Hillary won 5 seats by double digits and came within 2 and 6 points in another two (both in the east).    The only way to cram all that down into 3 districts would be to draw crazy bacon-strip districts across the state.    The only packed districts Republicans really have left are VA-6 and VA-9, both of them are on the western edge of the state.  

If the GOP takes it too far they can easily draw themselves a dummymander.

[Nyvin]

Nice, a fair state senate map probably locks in a Democratic majority. Fingers crossed...

Haha, what?

The current Virginia Senate map is a brutal Democratic gerrymander. The Republican party of Virginia rallied the people and won a majority of the seats.


This is truly amazing. A deal was made such that the Republicans in the House of Delegates drew that map, and the Democrats in the Senate drew that map. After making that deal and bundling the plans into 1 bill liberals are now complaining about their side of the deal because they lost the elections!

Even the Congressional map is basically a Democratic gerrymander as it is substantially similar to those proposed in the Virginia Senate in 2011.

How rich.

The Legislature did not produce the map, the court did.   The Virginia Senate passed three different maps, and they all died in the GOP dominated House.

It was the Republicans that produced the State Senate map, in effect.   It's absolutely not a Democratic gerrymander,  it hardly changed anything in the NOVA area.

[krazen1211]

They didn't adjourn a special session () the map was struck down by the courts, and then the VA legislature couldn't draw a map (due to GOP incompetence, not the dems...) and the courts ended up drawing the maps.

The map drawn in 2001 was not the same as the map drawn in 2010.

Considering Hillary won Virginia by 5 points I would definitely not call a 4th Dem seat "stolen".  

It's really a moot point anyway - an 8-3 map just flat out isn't possible anymore.   Hillary won 5 seats by double digits and came within 2 and 6 points in another two (both in the east).    The only way to cram all that down into 3 districts would be to draw crazy bacon-strip districts across the state.    The only packed districts Republicans really have left are VA-6 and VA-9, both of them are on the western edge of the state.  

If the GOP takes it too far they can easily draw themselves a dummymander.

That is wholly ridiculous!



First, It was Terry Mcauliffe who called a special session to rectify the 3rd district.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe plans to call the Virginia General Assembly into special session next month to redraw the state's congressional map, his press office said Tuesday afternoon.




After that bizarro court ruling, which might not survive Justice Pryor, Virginia Republicans in the House of Delegates called a special session to redraw the 3rd district.


“While we still strongly believe the defendants should have the opportunity to pursue their appeal, the House of Delegates fully intends to exercise its legal right to remedy the flaws with the current 3rd Congressional District,” said House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford.



What happened? Virginia Democrats, and a single cuckservative, ended the special session! So when you say the VA legislature could not draw a map, it is because Democrats made it so by a 21-20 vote.



And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

[Virginiá]

And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

Hmm, well if this is stealing than hopefully we can really loot the place in 2021.

[krazen1211]

The Legislature did not produce the map, the court did.   The Virginia Senate passed three different maps, and they all died in the GOP dominated House.

It was the Republicans that produced the State Senate map, in effect.   It's absolutely not a Democratic gerrymander,  it hardly changed anything in the NOVA area.

Here are the maps proposed by the Democrats in 2011.

Link

Plan SB5004 was proposed by Democrat Senator M Locke.

Plan SB5004 from 2011 includes very close to the current lines in areas around DC, and a 4th district that connects Richmond with areas around Chesapeake.

Plan SB5004, and the substitute SB5004 plan, basically overlap with the court ordered modification 16 plan! It's almost as if the liberals on the 4th circuit enacted the plan drawn by Democrat Senator M. Locke.

Oh, wait, that is what happened.

[Nyvin]

They didn't adjourn a special session () the map was struck down by the courts, and then the VA legislature couldn't draw a map (due to GOP incompetence, not the dems...) and the courts ended up drawing the maps.

The map drawn in 2001 was not the same as the map drawn in 2010.

Considering Hillary won Virginia by 5 points I would definitely not call a 4th Dem seat "stolen".  

It's really a moot point anyway - an 8-3 map just flat out isn't possible anymore.   Hillary won 5 seats by double digits and came within 2 and 6 points in another two (both in the east).    The only way to cram all that down into 3 districts would be to draw crazy bacon-strip districts across the state.    The only packed districts Republicans really have left are VA-6 and VA-9, both of them are on the western edge of the state.  

If the GOP takes it too far they can easily draw themselves a dummymander.

That is wholly ridiculous!



First, It was Terry Mcauliffe who called a special session to rectify the 3rd district.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe plans to call the Virginia General Assembly into special session next month to redraw the state's congressional map, his press office said Tuesday afternoon.




After that bizarro court ruling, which might not survive Justice Pryor, Virginia Republicans in the House of Delegates called a special session to redraw the 3rd district.


“While we still strongly believe the defendants should have the opportunity to pursue their appeal, the House of Delegates fully intends to exercise its legal right to remedy the flaws with the current 3rd Congressional District,” said House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford.



What happened? Virginia Democrats, and a single cuckservative, ended the special session! So when you say the VA legislature could not draw a map, it is because Democrats made it so by a 21-20 vote.



And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

The Senate has 40 members, it was a 21-19 vote.

Considering even Obama won Virginia by about 4 points, I hardly call the Democrats winning a whole 4 of 11 seats "stealing".    More like unpack African Americans from one dem vote sink.

[krazen1211]

And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

Hmm, well if this is stealing than hopefully we can really loot the place in 2021.

Why would you think that? Democrats drew a ruthless gerrymander of the state Senate in 2011 when they held 22 seats. Now they hold 19 seats.

Maybe you people are very bad at this elections thing.

[krazen1211]

They didn't adjourn a special session () the map was struck down by the courts, and then the VA legislature couldn't draw a map (due to GOP incompetence, not the dems...) and the courts ended up drawing the maps.

The map drawn in 2001 was not the same as the map drawn in 2010.

Considering Hillary won Virginia by 5 points I would definitely not call a 4th Dem seat "stolen".  

It's really a moot point anyway - an 8-3 map just flat out isn't possible anymore.   Hillary won 5 seats by double digits and came within 2 and 6 points in another two (both in the east).    The only way to cram all that down into 3 districts would be to draw crazy bacon-strip districts across the state.    The only packed districts Republicans really have left are VA-6 and VA-9, both of them are on the western edge of the state.  

If the GOP takes it too far they can easily draw themselves a dummymander.

That is wholly ridiculous!



First, It was Terry Mcauliffe who called a special session to rectify the 3rd district.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe plans to call the Virginia General Assembly into special session next month to redraw the state's congressional map, his press office said Tuesday afternoon.




After that bizarro court ruling, which might not survive Justice Pryor, Virginia Republicans in the House of Delegates called a special session to redraw the 3rd district.


“While we still strongly believe the defendants should have the opportunity to pursue their appeal, the House of Delegates fully intends to exercise its legal right to remedy the flaws with the current 3rd Congressional District,” said House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford.



What happened? Virginia Democrats, and a single cuckservative, ended the special session! So when you say the VA legislature could not draw a map, it is because Democrats made it so by a 21-20 vote.



And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

The Senate has 40 members, it was a 21-19 vote.

Considering even Obama won Virginia by about 4 points, I hardly call the Democrats winning a whole 4 of 11 seats "stealing".    More like unpack African Americans from one dem vote sink.

That is not at all what happened! It's right there in the article.

Watkins, who is retiring this year, also voted with Democrats to end the session. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam broke the ensuing 20-20 tie.

Normally, it should be the legislature that passes a map. And they did in early 2012, with the support of many Democrats such as Gerry Connolly. And your courts and judges then enacted something close to M. Locke's plan which could not even pass the legislature.

I will point out this article from February 2012, written by a liberal, that complained that the legislature enacted a certain map and instead insisted on a map like the one proposed by M. Locke. So basically the court enacted a plan proposed by activist liberals.


I give the thieves credit. Live and die by the sword.

[publicunofficial]

Any map that results in more Democrats winning more seats than the previous map = Dem gerrymander.

[Nyvin]

They didn't adjourn a special session () the map was struck down by the courts, and then the VA legislature couldn't draw a map (due to GOP incompetence, not the dems...) and the courts ended up drawing the maps.

The map drawn in 2001 was not the same as the map drawn in 2010.

Considering Hillary won Virginia by 5 points I would definitely not call a 4th Dem seat "stolen".  

It's really a moot point anyway - an 8-3 map just flat out isn't possible anymore.   Hillary won 5 seats by double digits and came within 2 and 6 points in another two (both in the east).    The only way to cram all that down into 3 districts would be to draw crazy bacon-strip districts across the state.    The only packed districts Republicans really have left are VA-6 and VA-9, both of them are on the western edge of the state.  

If the GOP takes it too far they can easily draw themselves a dummymander.

That is wholly ridiculous!



First, It was Terry Mcauliffe who called a special session to rectify the 3rd district.

Gov. Terry McAuliffe plans to call the Virginia General Assembly into special session next month to redraw the state's congressional map, his press office said Tuesday afternoon.




After that bizarro court ruling, which might not survive Justice Pryor, Virginia Republicans in the House of Delegates called a special session to redraw the 3rd district.


“While we still strongly believe the defendants should have the opportunity to pursue their appeal, the House of Delegates fully intends to exercise its legal right to remedy the flaws with the current 3rd Congressional District,” said House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford.



What happened? Virginia Democrats, and a single cuckservative, ended the special session! So when you say the VA legislature could not draw a map, it is because Democrats made it so by a 21-20 vote.



And then 4th circuit judges appointed special masters to redraw the 3rd district, and while they did that, they stole the 4th district.

The Senate has 40 members, it was a 21-19 vote.

Considering even Obama won Virginia by about 4 points, I hardly call the Democrats winning a whole 4 of 11 seats "stealing".    More like unpack African Americans from one dem vote sink.

That is not at all what happened! It's right there in the article.

Watkins, who is retiring this year, also voted with Democrats to end the session. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam broke the ensuing 20-20 tie.

Normally, it should be the legislature that passes a map. And they did in early 2012, with the support of many Democrats such as Gerry Connolly. And your courts and judges then enacted something close to M. Locke's plan which could not even pass the legislature.

I will point out this article from February 2012, written by a liberal, that complained that the legislature enacted a certain map and instead insisted on a map like the one proposed by M. Locke. So basically the court enacted a plan proposed by activist liberals.


I give the thieves credit. Live and die by the sword.

Maybe the Courts enacted the map because *gasp* it better represents the interests of the people of Virginia?  Maybe the court picked the more fair map?   Crazy thought huh? 

I'm sure you think an 8-3 map in a state the Democrats consistently win is "fair"