Predict the next Democratic primary poll(s)
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  Predict the next Democratic primary poll(s)
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Author Topic: Predict the next Democratic primary poll(s)  (Read 1155 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: December 03, 2016, 03:14:15 PM »

Our only 2020 Democratic primary poll so far was this national one by Morning Consult, taken in October:

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Oct. 5-6:

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPToplines-1.pdf
https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Politico_MCPostVPCrosstabs.pdf

If Trump wins this year, who should be the 2020 Dem. nominee?

Warren 28%
Kaine 16%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
"other" 8%
"don't know" 32%

Presumably we'll get more such polls some time soon (within the next month?).  Who will be included in the poll question, and what will the results look like?

Bonus: Same question for Iowa and New Hampshire polls: Who will they include in the poll question, and what will the results be?
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2016, 05:02:25 PM »

Around the time Iowa voting begins it will be: 35% Warren, 30% Castro, 22% Booker, 8% Cuomo, 2% Bullock
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2016, 05:09:23 PM »

Around the time Iowa voting begins it will be: 35% Warren, 30% Castro, 22% Booker, 8% Cuomo, 2% Bullock

OK, but I'm asking what will polling that comes out within the next couple of weeks/month look like.  Not polling three years from now.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2016, 05:14:16 PM »

Around the time Iowa voting begins it will be: 35% Warren, 30% Castro, 22% Booker, 8% Cuomo, 2% Bullock

wtf
Sorry but Julian Castro is my guy I think like Obama he is the dark horse
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2016, 05:16:58 PM »

Around the time Iowa voting begins it will be: 35% Warren, 30% Castro, 22% Booker, 8% Cuomo, 2% Bullock

OK, but I'm asking what will polling that comes out within the next couple of weeks/month look like.  Not polling three years from now.

Ah in that case: Warren 30%, Booker 19%, Cuomo 13%
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Figueira
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« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2016, 06:01:30 PM »

Warren 26%
Kaine 14%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
Sanders 7%
Clinton 5%
Other 5%
Don't know 26%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2016, 11:44:18 AM »

Warren 26%
Kaine 14%
Booker 9%
Cuomo 8%
Sanders 7%
Clinton 5%
Other 5%
Don't know 26%

If Clinton and Sanders are actually included in such a poll, then I think they'll both do much better than that.  They are still way ahead of the rest of the field in name recognition, and it'll take a long time for that to change.

I'm not sure if one or both will be included though.  Or if they are, then the pollsters might ask for 2nd and 3rd choice options, so that they can do what PPP used to do with Clinton and Biden in the 2016 race, and ask how people would vote if neither of those two people ran.

It really depends on how seriously the media takes the possibility that Clinton and/or Sanders might run again.  Do they figure that with Clinton having lost the general election, she's done now, and with Sanders being nearly 80 in 2020, he's done now too?
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LLR
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2016, 06:34:01 PM »

Warren 22%
Kaine 15%
Booker 10%
Cuomo 7%
Gillibrand 5%
Harris 3%
Other 8%
Don't know 29%
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Cynthia
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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2016, 02:43:05 AM »

Warren 41%
Booker 27%
Gillibrand 7%
Don't know/write-in/other 25%
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2016, 03:05:29 AM »

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2016, 10:18:27 AM »

Incidentally, PPP is starting a national poll right now:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/12/national-poll-question-suggestions.html

Hopefully they'll include some 2020 questions.  I'm not too optimistic about them doing a Democratic primary subsample, but maybe they'll include a 2020 GE question?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2016, 10:25:05 AM »

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2016, 10:33:55 AM »

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2016, 10:47:05 AM »

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.


As far as I know, Cuomo also declined because he’s running for a third term as NY Gov. At least Wikipedia lists him as “declined”: Link
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2016, 10:52:19 AM »

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.


As far as I know, Cuomo also declined because he’s running for a third term as NY Gov. At least Wikipedia lists him as “declined”: Link

Wikipedia's wrong though.  If you look at the article they reference, it just says that Cuomo is saying he's going to run for a third term as governor in 2018.  He hasn't ruled out running for president in 2020.  In fact, when people ask him about it, he changes the subject by saying that he's just focused on being governor, and running for reelection in '18.  It's the classic non-denial.

Kaine is different.  Maybe Kaine will change his mind, and maybe he's lying.  But Kaine has actually explicitly said he's not running for president in 2020.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2016, 10:57:45 AM »

Where would Biden fall if he does end up running?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2016, 11:23:07 AM »
« Edited: December 06, 2016, 11:25:00 AM by Castro »

Where would Biden fall if he does end up running?

If Warren doesn't run, he's the frontrunner. If she does, they'd be the two frontrunners.
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Shadows
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« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2016, 11:41:12 AM »
« Edited: December 06, 2016, 11:45:33 AM by Shadows »

Sanders - 51%
Biden - 23%
Booker - 7%
Warren - 6%
Coumo - 6%
Kaine - 5%
O Malley - 2%

Sanders would win in a landslide & may even defeat Warren in MA. It will be a huge HUGE victory & there is no-one near enough to beat him or even close to beat him.

Only person who is realistic is Joe Biden. Biden vs Sanders would be close with Sanders being the favorite for obvious reasons - If this was 2020 & Sanders vs Clinton for the 1st time Sanders would be fav due to pure demographic advantage (more 12-16 year old people coming & older people dying)
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KingCharles
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« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2016, 12:44:54 PM »

YEEZY - 51%
Biden - 23%
Booker - 7%
Warren - 6%
Coumo - 6%
Kaine - 5%
O Malley - 2%

YEEZY would win in a landslide & may even defeat Warren in MA. It will be a huge HUGE victory & there is no-one near enough to beat him or even close to beat him.

Only person who is realistic is Joe Biden. Biden vs YEEZY would be close with YEEZY being the favorite for obvious reasons - If this was 2020 & YEEZY vs Clinton for the 1st time YEEZY would be fav due to pure demographic advantage (more 12-16 year old people coming & older people dying)

Much much better now.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2016, 01:02:00 PM »

Sanders - 51%
Biden - 23%
Booker - 7%
Warren - 6%
Coumo - 6%
Kaine - 5%
O Malley - 2%

Sanders would win in a landslide & may even defeat Warren in MA. It will be a huge HUGE victory & there is no-one near enough to beat him or even close to beat him.

Only person who is realistic is Joe Biden. Biden vs Sanders would be close with Sanders being the favorite for obvious reasons - If this was 2020 & Sanders vs Clinton for the 1st time Sanders would be fav due to pure demographic advantage (more 12-16 year old people coming & older people dying)

Uhm....

At least you tried.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2016, 10:31:10 PM »

Sanders
Warren
Booker
Gillibrand
Harris
Kaine
Cuomo

Not going to guess percentages.

The problem is, that two of these dudes already declined a run.

Just Kaine AFAIK, though I'm not sure the media is going to take his denials seriously.  The pollsters kept including Warren in 2016 polls well into 2015, even after she'd been saying she wasn't running for years.


As far as I know, Cuomo also declined because he’s running for a third term as NY Gov. At least Wikipedia lists him as “declined”: Link

Wikipedia's wrong though.  If you look at the article they reference, it just says that Cuomo is saying he's going to run for a third term as governor in 2018.  He hasn't ruled out running for president in 2020.  In fact, when people ask him about it, he changes the subject by saying that he's just focused on being governor, and running for reelection in '18.  It's the classic non-denial.

Kaine is different.  Maybe Kaine will change his mind, and maybe he's lying.  But Kaine has actually explicitly said he's not running for president in 2020.


Followup on this: Looks like Wikipedia's now recanted, and taken Cuomo out of the "declined" category.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2016, 10:42:07 PM »

A good indication of what the next poll could look like is this one:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=254202.0

Sanders 20%
Obama 17%
Biden 14%
Warren 11%
B. Clinton 9%
H. Clinton 7%

Democrats only:
Obama 25%
Sanders 24%
Warren 17%
Biden 11%
H. Clinton 11%
B. Clinton 7%

Given that Obama cannot run in 2020, Bernie would be ahead in any poll that comes out now.
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KingCharles
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« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2016, 10:45:36 PM »

Warren and Sanders will collectively get over 50%

Grayson and Brown could also be lumped into their category.

At least 50% of the Dem base want somebody to the left of Hillary.
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mvd10
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« Reply #23 on: December 13, 2016, 01:12:15 AM »

Warren 26%
Biden 16%
Booker 11%
Cuomo 8%
Harris 7%
Klobuchar 4%
Castro 4%
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