Why did Kansas swing towards Clinton?

[Figueira]

Is it the high suburban population, the increasing number of Hispanics in the southwest, the unpopularity of Brownback, something else, or a combination?

[Matty]

Brownback

[Cashew]

Brownback

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Kansas is a very educated state.

[BaldEagle1991]

Kansas is a very educated state.

Brownback

A combination of these

[ElectionsGuy]

No, its not just Brownback. It barely had anything to do with this election. Its primarily because Johnson County swung way more Democratic than expected, its a big suburban county with high incomes and college education levels. Romney won by 18, Trump won by a little less than 3.

[VPH]

-Anti Brownback sentiment certainly helped the state party get organized and energized (accounts for downballot Democrats winning in places like Crawford, Ellis, and Leavenworth counties, but not that much for Clinton's swing)
-Johnson County swung HARD towards Clinton, even as many of Kansas' smaller town counties and rural counties voted the most Republican they have in a long time
-Riley County (moderately GOP home of K-State) and Douglas County (already very Democratic home of KU) also swung Dem
-There were a handful of W. Kansas counties with rising Hispanic populations that swung towards Clinton

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I think it mainly comes down to two things.
1. The hispanic population there is increasing rapidly and is mostly Mexican.
2. Kansas tends to be very socially conservative. They prefer evangelicals and voted strongly for Cruz in the primary. Many of them may not have gotten over Trump's "New York values" as Cruz called them.

[RINO Tom]

Kansas is a very educated state.

So?  The college grads there are largely White, and that group voted for Trump.

[RBH]

Johnson County is a pretty well-off suburban area. I'd imagine once the precinct results are out, there'll be an interesting correlation between income and voting preferences there

[Sbane]

Kansas is a very educated state.

So?  The college grads there are largely White, and that group voted for Trump.

Trends matter. College educated whites may have voted Republican again, but just barely. The reason why Hillary won the popular vote is because of college-educated whites.

[smoltchanov]

Kansas tends to be very socially conservative. They prefer evangelicals and voted strongly for Cruz in the primary. Many of them may not have gotten over Trump's "New York values" as Cruz called them.

Then why this year it defeated 14 conservative (including - socially conservative) republican legislators in favor of moderate ones (mostly - pro-choice, pro-SSM and so on) in primary and 12 more - in general election?

[RINO Tom]

Kansas is a very educated state.

So?  The college grads there are largely White, and that group voted for Trump.

Another obsessive post about this issue.  You really can't take the fact that higher educated people don't vote like you, can you?

And you really can't take the fact that your party's vote share is directly tied to having a lower income, can you?  Not that either should matter, I'm just calling you on your false sense of party superiority.

[libertpaulian]

I don't get why people blame Brownback.  Brownback is a doctrinaire supply-sider.  Trump didn't campaign as such.

[136or142]

I don't get why people blame Brownback.  Brownback is a doctrinaire supply-sider.  Trump didn't campaign as such.

The early indications are that he'll govern as such though.

[136or142]

the Proverbs of Solomon 17:28 Even a fool, when he holds his peace, is counted wise: and he that shuts his lips is esteemed a man of understanding.

This is where the quote originated, despite the intentions of those who would discredit the source. In fact, almost all the really good quotes and sayings we still use today originated in the scriptures. Mark Twain and Abraham Lincoln were both students of the scriptures!


http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/archive/index.php/t-128682.html

The Bible FTW!

[MarkD]

I don't even get this question.
I don't see any swing towards Clinton.
Four years ago, here is how Kansas voted: total votes cast: 1,159,971.
Votes for Obama: 440,726 (38.00%), votes for Romney: 692,634 (59.71%), votes for others: 26,611 (2.29%).
Here is what happened this year: total votes cast: 1,184,402.
Votes for Clinton: 427,005 (36.05%), votes for Trump: 671,018 (56.65%), votes for others: 86,379 (7.29%).
The swing was toward the other candidates, like Johnson and Stein.
Are you calling it a swing towards Clinton because Romney beat Obama by 21.71 percentage points - nearly 252,000 votes - but Trump beat Clinton by 20.60 percentage points - 244,00 votes?

[JustinTimeCuber]

I don't even get this question.
I don't see any swing towards Clinton.
Four years ago, here is how Kansas voted: total votes cast: 1,159,971.
Votes for Obama: 440,726 (38.00%), votes for Romney: 692,634 (59.71%), votes for others: 26,611 (2.29%).
Here is what happened this year: total votes cast: 1,184,402.
Votes for Clinton: 427,005 (36.05%), votes for Trump: 671,018 (56.65%), votes for others: 86,379 (7.29%).
The swing was toward the other candidates, like Johnson and Stein.
Are you calling it a swing towards Clinton because Romney beat Obama by 21.71 percentage points - nearly 252,000 votes - but Trump beat Clinton by 20.60 percentage points - 244,00 votes?

[AGA]

Not only Brownback, but also the fact that Kansas is a highly educated state. A look at the swing map will let one see that the huge Democratic swing in Johnson County, a reliably Republican county in the suburbs of Kansas City, contributed to the Democratic swing. Trump won by less than 3 points there.

Trump also was not a very good fit for the state. Cruz handily beat him there in the caucus.

[Classic Conservative]

Turnout was down big league in Western Kansas.

[RFayette]

I don't get why people blame Brownback.  Brownback is a doctrinaire supply-sider.  Trump didn't campaign as such.

The Democratic congressional candidate Jay Sidie ran against Kevin Yoder largely on the basis of Brownback's policies.  There was definitely a sense that his presence as governor drove down the prospects of the whole KSGOP ticket. 

[smoltchanov]

Trump also was not a very good fit for the state. Cruz handily beat him there in the caucus.

Caucuses are "activist dominated", so Cruz victory here essentially means nothing. Would it be primary - another matter..

[AGA]

Trump also was not a very good fit for the state. Cruz handily beat him there in the caucus.

Caucuses are "activist dominated", so Cruz victory here essentially means nothing. Would it be primary - another matter..

There is a good chance that Cruz would have won there if they had a primary. He won the caucus by about 24 points, and Trump did quite poorly in the Great Plains states except for the ones that voted after he became the presumptive nominee.

[smoltchanov]

Trump also was not a very good fit for the state. Cruz handily beat him there in the caucus.

Caucuses are "activist dominated", so Cruz victory here essentially means nothing. Would it be primary - another matter..

There is a good chance that Cruz would have won there if they had a primary. He won the caucus by about 24 points, and Trump did quite poorly in the Great Plains states except for the ones that voted after he became the presumptive nominee.

May be, but it's a guess. We will never know for sure..