Rhode Island: David Cicilline vs. James Langevin

[Kerrington]

Rhode Island is likely to lose its second congressional district, thus finally ending its enormous overrepresentation in both the House of Representatives and the Electoral College.

RI's 1st district has been represented by David Cicilline since 2010, and James Langevin has been the representative for RI's 2nd district since 2000; both won re-election this year.

Put the case that both Democrats will win the next two elections and both will want to hold their House seat in 2022, after both congressional districts have been merged. Who will win the Democratic primary, providing that no third candidate is running?

[NerdyBohemian]

That's a tough one. Tilt Langevin although I much prefer Cicilline.

[Zioneer]

If I recall, one of them is corrupt, but I can't remember which one. Whichever one isn't corrupt.

[Kevin]

If I recall, one of them is corrupt, but I can't remember which one. Whichever one isn't corrupt.

David is corrupt but James isn't.

David is a massive HP and James is an FF.

[Vega]

Cicilline has a good few skeletons in his closet and I can't imagine him making it Statewide.

[nclib]

Voted Option 2, but meant to vote option 4.

Cicilline has a good few skeletons in his closet and I can't imagine him making it Statewide.

Do you mean in the primary or the general? With Cicilline, the general would still be Safe/Likely D even if he underperforms like he does now in RI-1. Langevin would probably win the primary as he tends to overperform generic D in RI-2, and Cicilline tends to underperform generic D in RI-1.

[Heisenberg]

David Cicilline is corrupt and not well liked, and Republicans even recruited a moderate Democrat to switch parties in 2012 and target the seat, but even that failed. Langevin should easily dispatch Cicilline if the two do duke it out. Langevin is one of the better Democrats and while I disagree with him on many things I certainly respect him, so I would support him in the primary. The general would remain Safe D, although if it wasn't losing the second seat, a RI-02 post-Langevin would be interesting with the right Republican.

[Maxwell]

Langevin/Langevin. Cicilline is pretty much garbage.

[Figueira]

Cicilline is corrupt and Langevin is way too moderate.

Anyway, how did Langevin's district vote in the presidential election? I'm sure it voted for Clinton, but it must have been way closer than usual.

[Cynthia]

Cicilline is corrupt and Langevin is way too moderate.

Anyway, how did Langevin's district vote in the presidential election? I'm sure it voted for Clinton, but it must have been way closer than usual.

I did some rough calculations based on http://www.ri.gov/election/results/2016/general_election/providence/#. HRC received 119,476 votes in congressional district 2, while DJT got 104,779. So HRC 53.3-DJT 46.7. Cicilline's district voted 63.7% HRC instead.

[GMantis]

The Democratic dominated legislature actually made the first district even more Democratic during the last redistricting (though it was already substantially more Democratic than the second) supposedly to bolster Cicilline. Which might have backfired in case Langevin retired if running as  a Republican for a RI district in 2018 or 2020 wasn't so pointless.

[coloradocowboi]

It bums me out because since Mike Michaud surprisingly lost in '14, the prospects of getting an openly gay man elected at the federal or gubernatorial level has greatly diminished. I don't think there are any good prospects for a long time, and I do wish that I was better represented in our government.

That being said, David Cicilline would be a disaster, and it should obviously be Langevin, so long as Dems can hold his district after.

[Figueira]

I think what might end up happening is Jack Reed retires in 2020 and one of these two runs for his seat, while the other runs for RI-AL.

[Heisenberg]

I think what might end up happening is Jack Reed retires in 2020 and one of these two runs for his seat, while the other runs for RI-AL.

Nope, redistricting won't take affect until 2022.

[Figueira]

I think what might end up happening is Jack Reed retires in 2020 and one of these two runs for his seat, while the other runs for RI-AL.

Nope, redistricting won't take affect until 2022.

I know that. But they know it's going to happen and I suspect they'll plan accordingly, if Reed wants to retire.

Of course, there is that extra House seat from 2020-2022.

[Heisenberg]

I think what might end up happening is Jack Reed retires in 2020 and one of these two runs for his seat, while the other runs for RI-AL.

Nope, redistricting won't take affect until 2022.

I know that. But they know it's going to happen and I suspect they'll plan accordingly, if Reed wants to retire.

Of course, there is that extra House seat from 2020-2022.

Cicilline can't win a statewide primary, and then whoever gets the other House seat becomes a formidable candidate and a possible thorn in he plan. Cicilline's career probably ends soon.

[Figueira]

I think what might end up happening is Jack Reed retires in 2020 and one of these two runs for his seat, while the other runs for RI-AL.

Nope, redistricting won't take affect until 2022.

I know that. But they know it's going to happen and I suspect they'll plan accordingly, if Reed wants to retire.

Of course, there is that extra House seat from 2020-2022.

Cicilline can't win a statewide primary, and then whoever gets the other House seat becomes a formidable candidate and a possible thorn in he plan. Cicilline's career probably ends soon.

Fair enough.

Maybe Reed dies in 2017, then Cicilline runs in the special election but loses the primary to Peter Kilmartin, who loses the general to Republican State Senator Thomas Paolino, who then loses to a progressive Brown professor in 2020. Then Langevin decides to retire in 2022 anyway. Meanwhile Paolino moves to Connecticut and runs against Richard Blumenthal.