Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022
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  Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022
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Author Topic: Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022  (Read 4436 times)
Devout Centrist
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« on: December 03, 2016, 11:36:18 PM »

It won't happen until then.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2016, 11:38:18 PM »

This thread will not be dumb never.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2016, 11:53:31 PM »

They have a chance in 2020, but most things would have to go their way in 2018 as well.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2016, 07:49:49 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2016, 07:51:43 AM by Spicy Purrito »

They win it all if they win 2020. If they are still an insurgent party by 2023, there might not be a way forward for them unless something really bad happens.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2016, 08:15:08 AM »

They almost definitely won't win it back in 2018, but a good performance in that cycle could result in around no net change, leading to a need of maybe 1-4 or so gains among Georgia, Maine, Iowa, Colorado, North Carolina, or any other retirements or leaves we don't know about yet.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2016, 11:29:31 AM »

Depends if somehow Foster pulls out the upset in Louisiana then game on for 2018 but in all likely hood the best case for the dems is retaking the house, winning governorship in FL, NV, MI, WI, MN and cutting the senate to 51-49 
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Figueira
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2016, 11:39:53 AM »

Depends if somehow Foster pulls out the upset in Louisiana then game on for 2018 but in all likely hood the best case for the dems is retaking the house, winning governorship in FL, NV, MI, WI, MN and cutting the senate to 51-49 

50-50 is doable, but would require pretty much everything to go right. An actual Democratic Senate is very, very unlikely.

Anyway, I wouldn't be too shocked if OP's prediction came true, but I wouldn't be so absolute about it.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2016, 11:53:35 AM »

Yep, the Democrats are doomed to be a permanent minority in the Senate, just like they'd never win back the White House after 2004, or how Republicans were never going to win back the White House after 2012.

2020 is quite possible, especially if 2018 is good for Democrats. Gardner and Tillis will definitely be vulnerable, and Democrats also have a chance in GA and IA, not to mention ME if Collins retires.
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Figueira
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2016, 02:05:35 PM »

I think MT and AK are probably better pickup opportunities for them than GA and especially IA.

If polarization continues GA is much more likely. I'd say it's the third best opportunity after CO and NC.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2016, 03:29:54 PM »

2018: NV; Maybe AZ; Possibly TX, MS
2020: NC; Maybe AK, CO, IA; Possibly GA, MT, TX

Barring GOP landslide in either 2018 or 2020, I fail to see how the Senate isn't at least 50-50 in 2021.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2016, 03:33:28 PM »

2018: NV; Maybe AZ; Possibly TX, MS
2020: NC; Maybe AK, CO, IA; Possibly GA, MT, TX

Barring GOP landslide in either 2018 or 2020, I fail to see how the Senate isn't at least 50-50 in 2021.

Republicans don't need a landslide in 2018 to win MO (lol), IN and one or two of OH/ND/MT/WV/PA.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2016, 06:06:42 PM »

Understate McCaskill all you want. The predictions of her losing 2 to 1 are very unlikely. Even if it is hypothetically possible.

It seems right now all people are doing are predicting major landslides for their party in future elections.

We should really only discuss hypothetical situations for 2018 at this time. Discussing 2020, 2022, 2024, 2056, 3002 Senatorial elections is fruitless right now.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2016, 06:32:05 PM »

^Perdue losing is pretty unlikely IMO (because of the runoff law). He is no Isakson, but he knows his state is changing. Maine only flips if Collins retires.

I get the impression that Perdue isn't all that well-liked, but I see your point. And to answer someone else in the thread - I'd put money on Ernst winning re-election by at least 5, if not by double digits. Alaska is an interesting prospect - but only if in the very unlikely event that Dan Sullivan retires.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2016, 06:36:59 PM »

Keep in mind that Trumps path to victory was very narrow this year and he did it. So we can't 100% count out Democrats retaking the Senate in two years. Even if I personally do not predict that.

Hold all own + pick up Nevada, Arizona + one lucky break of retirement, or perfect storm in a Republican state (Texas or Utah perhaps).

Very narrow but not impossible.

House has better prospects Smiley
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2016, 06:37:37 PM »

^Perdue losing is pretty unlikely IMO (because of the runoff law). He is no Isakson, but he knows his state is changing. Maine only flips if Collins retires.

I get the impression that Perdue isn't all that well-liked, but I see your point. And to answer someone else in the thread - I'd put money on Ernst winning re-election by at least 5, if not by double digits. Alaska is an interesting prospect - but only if in the very unlikely event that Dan Sullivan retires.

Ernst strikes me as a very weak incumbent, tbh.
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Green Line
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« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2016, 06:37:43 PM »

They might never recover the Senate.  
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2016, 07:23:53 PM »

It seems that we are trying to make predictions without knowing how Trump will do. If he isn't an amazing president, the senate will be D by 2022. If he is really awful, sooner. The fact is that the Trump brand is unpopular but the Democratic brand is tarnished too. Maybe if voters see Democrats as an acceptable protest vote without actually trusting them from being too liberal, it will be enough to win in red states when Trump isn't on the ballot.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2016, 08:05:44 PM »
« Edited: December 04, 2016, 08:07:29 PM by krazen1211 »

The only class of Senators that has any real GOP vulnerability is the 2022 class.

2018: NV; Maybe AZ; Possibly TX, MS
2020: NC; Maybe AK, CO, IA; Possibly GA, MT, TX

Barring GOP landslide in either 2018 or 2020, I fail to see how the Senate isn't at least 50-50 in 2021.

Republicans don't need a landslide in 2018 to win MO (lol), IN and one or two of OH/ND/MT/WV/PA.

More than 1 or 2. They are gonna get Blanched.

Remember when Mark Pryor thought he was tough stuff because he was polling close to Cotton? Lol. Blanched!
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2016, 08:22:13 PM »

The only class of Senators that has any real GOP vulnerability is the 2022 class.

2018: NV; Maybe AZ; Possibly TX, MS
2020: NC; Maybe AK, CO, IA; Possibly GA, MT, TX

Barring GOP landslide in either 2018 or 2020, I fail to see how the Senate isn't at least 50-50 in 2021.

Republicans don't need a landslide in 2018 to win MO (lol), IN and one or two of OH/ND/MT/WV/PA.

More than 1 or 2. They are gonna get Blanched.

Remember when Mark Pryor thought he was tough stuff because he was polling close to Cotton? Lol. Blanched!

Please keep in mind that it is smug overconfidence like that which caused Democrats to lose the presidency and not regain the senate this year. Just a fyi. So be careful and modest, especially in early predictions.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2016, 10:29:18 PM »

The only class of Senators that has any real GOP vulnerability is the 2022 class.

2018: NV; Maybe AZ; Possibly TX, MS
2020: NC; Maybe AK, CO, IA; Possibly GA, MT, TX

Barring GOP landslide in either 2018 or 2020, I fail to see how the Senate isn't at least 50-50 in 2021.

Republicans don't need a landslide in 2018 to win MO (lol), IN and one or two of OH/ND/MT/WV/PA.

More than 1 or 2. They are gonna get Blanched.

Remember when Mark Pryor thought he was tough stuff because he was polling close to Cotton? Lol. Blanched!

Please keep in mind that it is smug overconfidence like that which caused Democrats to lose the presidency and not regain the senate this year. Just a fyi. So be careful and modest, especially in early predictions.

Have you MET Krazen?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2016, 08:54:50 AM »

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

Yes. But - probably not sooner. In 2018 Senate map is atroccious for Democrats and Trump (most likely) will be not too unpopular (it takes time to get there). In 2020 states like AZ and GA will still be at least Lean R. By 2022 - possible.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2016, 09:16:27 AM »

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

Yes. But - probably not sooner. In 2018 Senate map is atroccious for Democrats and Trump (most likely) will be not too unpopular (it takes time to get there). In 2020 states like AZ and GA will still be at least Lean R. By 2022 - possible.
Trump is already unpopular it's very and in my opinion likely he will be toxic in 2018
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2016, 09:24:31 AM »

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

Yes. But - probably not sooner. In 2018 Senate map is atroccious for Democrats and Trump (most likely) will be not too unpopular (it takes time to get there). In 2020 states like AZ and GA will still be at least Lean R. By 2022 - possible.
Trump is already unpopular it's very and in my opinion likely he will be toxic in 2018

I wouldn't say so. AFAIK - his popularity rose since Nov. 8th, and his unpopularity didn't prevent him from winning. Usually first 2 years are not especially harsh for new president without big scandals (yes, they were for Bill Clinton and Obama, but both times an attempt for broad and not too popular reform was made)...
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Virginiá
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« Reply #23 on: December 05, 2016, 12:33:55 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2016, 12:35:39 PM by Virginia »

I wouldn't say so. AFAIK - his popularity rose since Nov. 8th, and his unpopularity didn't prevent him from winning.

All president-elects get a bump, and as for winning, well, again he did have the good fortune of running against the 2nd most disliked candidate in modern history. Trump was associated with bigotry, sexism, being a bully, etc while Clinton was associated with corrupt, elite, establishment, being a liar, etc. It's clear which one Americans cared more about. My point is that between 2 widely loathed candidates, who will win isn't so clear cut.


Usually first 2 years are not especially harsh for new president without big scandals (yes, they were for Bill Clinton and Obama, but both times an attempt for broad and not too popular reform was made)...

Coincidentally, some important Republicans also appear to be in a mood for broad, unpopular reforms.


---

As for topic, this is what I was worried about if Democrats didn't take back the Senate this cycle, and particularly if Clinton also won. We needed a majority to be able to absorb some losses in 2018. We don't have that and now we might be in a hole that will take a few cycles to climb out of.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #24 on: December 05, 2016, 12:56:11 PM »

I wouldn't say so. AFAIK - his popularity rose since Nov. 8th, and his unpopularity didn't prevent him from winning.

All president-elects get a bump, and as for winning, well, again he did have the good fortune of running against the 2nd most disliked candidate in modern history. Trump was associated with bigotry, sexism, being a bully, etc while Clinton was associated with corrupt, elite, establishment, being a liar, etc. It's clear which one Americans cared more about. My point is that between 2 widely loathed candidates, who will win isn't so clear cut.


Usually first 2 years are not especially harsh for new president without big scandals (yes, they were for Bill Clinton and Obama, but both times an attempt for broad and not too popular reform was made)...

Coincidentally, some important Republicans also appear to be in a mood for broad, unpopular reforms.


---

As for topic, this is what I was worried about if Democrats didn't take back the Senate this cycle, and particularly if Clinton also won. We needed a majority to be able to absorb some losses in 2018. We don't have that and now we might be in a hole that will take a few cycles to climb out of.

Agree. But the fact remains: Democrats managed to nominate 2nd most loathed person in US for President, and she did even managed a feat of losing to 1st most loathed)))) Nice work, guys..
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