Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022

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Depends if somehow Foster pulls out the upset in Louisiana then game on for 2018 but in all likely hood the best case for the dems is retaking the house, winning governorship in FL, NV, MI, WI, MN and cutting the senate to 51-49 

50-50 is doable, but would require pretty much everything to go right. An actual Democratic Senate is very, very unlikely.

Anyway, I wouldn't be too shocked if OP's prediction came true, but I wouldn't be so absolute about it.

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I think MT and AK are probably better pickup opportunities for them than GA and especially IA.

If polarization continues GA is much more likely. I'd say it's the third best opportunity after CO and NC.

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If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

I'm a bit confused by this analysis. The GOP gains all 10 Trump states but loses Nevada, which brings them to a 61-39 seat majority. In order for 6 seats to be enough to flip the Senate in 2022, Democrats need to gain 5-6 seats in 2020. I think that's vaguely possible (Colorado, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Alaska, Montana, maybe Maine) but only if Trump loses the presidency in an absolute landslide. If that happens, 2022 is unlikely to be good year for Democrats even if the map is amazing.

2022 is certainly possible, but very unlikely in a "worst case scenario" in 2018.

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Even in a good Democratic 2018 I do not see Democrats holding onto Missouri and Indiana. These 2 States have moved too far to the right.

In Indiana's case it's more polarization than moving far to the right. Trump got about the same percentage there that Bush got in 2004 (when Evan Bayh was re-elected easily).