Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022

[jamestroll]

Understate McCaskill all you want. The predictions of her losing 2 to 1 are very unlikely. Even if it is hypothetically possible.

It seems right now all people are doing are predicting major landslides for their party in future elections.

We should really only discuss hypothetical situations for 2018 at this time. Discussing 2020, 2022, 2024, 2056, 3002 Senatorial elections is fruitless right now.

[jamestroll]

Keep in mind that Trumps path to victory was very narrow this year and he did it. So we can't 100% count out Democrats retaking the Senate in two years. Even if I personally do not predict that.

Hold all own + pick up Nevada, Arizona + one lucky break of retirement, or perfect storm in a Republican state (Texas or Utah perhaps).

Very narrow but not impossible.

House has better prospects

[jamestroll]

The only class of Senators that has any real GOP vulnerability is the 2022 class.

2018: NV; Maybe AZ; Possibly TX, MS
2020: NC; Maybe AK, CO, IA; Possibly GA, MT, TX

Barring GOP landslide in either 2018 or 2020, I fail to see how the Senate isn't at least 50-50 in 2021.

Republicans don't need a landslide in 2018 to win MO (lol), IN and one or two of OH/ND/MT/WV/PA.

More than 1 or 2. They are gonna get Blanched.

Remember when Mark Pryor thought he was tough stuff because he was polling close to Cotton? Lol. Blanched!

Please keep in mind that it is smug overconfidence like that which caused Democrats to lose the presidency and not regain the senate this year. Just a fyi. So be careful and modest, especially in early predictions.

[jamestroll]

McCaskill is always under estimated. Too early to count out Tester and Donnelly. Too early to say we will absolutely gain Nevada or have a chance in Arizona.

That being said, even as I have strong beliefs against making hasty predictions years in advance, I am sure the GOP will hold the Senate in 2018.

House will be interesting.

I am not exactly old, I am 28. But I am old enough to have seen several election cycles, I feel like our younger posters get caught up with the most recent general election results. Literally two months ago, people were saying Democrats would always win the Presidency due to firewall and GOP will always win midterms due to turnout.

We saw how the former turned out, we just have to wait to see how the latter will turn out.