Democrats won't recover the senate until 2022

[smoltchanov]

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

Yes. But - probably not sooner. In 2018 Senate map is atroccious for Democrats and Trump (most likely) will be not too unpopular (it takes time to get there). In 2020 states like AZ and GA will still be at least Lean R. By 2022 - possible.

[smoltchanov]

If 2022 is a Trump midterm, with 6 more years of demographic movement, the Senate is practically likely D.  PA+NC+GA+FL+AZ+AK should be very doable by then.  Even in a worst case scenario where they only win Clinton states in 2018, that should be enough.

Yes. But - probably not sooner. In 2018 Senate map is atroccious for Democrats and Trump (most likely) will be not too unpopular (it takes time to get there). In 2020 states like AZ and GA will still be at least Lean R. By 2022 - possible.

Trump is already unpopular it's very and in my opinion likely he will be toxic in 2018

I wouldn't say so. AFAIK - his popularity rose since Nov. 8th, and his unpopularity didn't prevent him from winning. Usually first 2 years are not especially harsh for new president without big scandals (yes, they were for Bill Clinton and Obama, but both times an attempt for broad and not too popular reform was made)...

[smoltchanov]

I wouldn't say so. AFAIK - his popularity rose since Nov. 8th, and his unpopularity didn't prevent him from winning.

All president-elects get a bump, and as for winning, well, again he did have the good fortune of running against the 2nd most disliked candidate in modern history. Trump was associated with bigotry, sexism, being a bully, etc while Clinton was associated with corrupt, elite, establishment, being a liar, etc. It's clear which one Americans cared more about. My point is that between 2 widely loathed candidates, who will win isn't so clear cut.

Usually first 2 years are not especially harsh for new president without big scandals (yes, they were for Bill Clinton and Obama, but both times an attempt for broad and not too popular reform was made)...

Coincidentally, some important Republicans also appear to be in a mood for broad, unpopular reforms.


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As for topic, this is what I was worried about if Democrats didn't take back the Senate this cycle, and particularly if Clinton also won. We needed a majority to be able to absorb some losses in 2018. We don't have that and now we might be in a hole that will take a few cycles to climb out of.

Agree. But the fact remains: Democrats managed to nominate 2nd most loathed person in US for President, and she did even managed a feat of losing to 1st most loathed)))) Nice work, guys..