MS, SC, AL

[MT Treasurer]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

[Matty]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

[MT Treasurer]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

Yeah, but Black turnout in the Deep South has been quite high in past elections (even when Obama was not on the ballot) and it seems to have been higher this year in LA and GA than MS, AL and SC for some reason. There's also been talk of SC and MS being competitive because of Trump's weaknesses among White suburban voters. Heck, even in AL (which is quite suburban) he did much better than Romney.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

Yeah, but Black turnout in the Deep South has been quite high in past elections (even when Obama was not on the ballot) and it seems to have been higher this year in LA and GA than MS, AL and SC for some reason. There's also been talk of SC and MS being competitive because of Trump's weaknesses among White suburban voters. Heck, even in AL (which is quite suburban) he did much better than Romney.

Trump didn't utterly collapse with wealthy suburbanites in places like Shelby, AL and Lexington, SC, unlike what happened in similar suburbs in Georgia and Texas.  I'm not really sure why, though.

[LLR]

LA and GA's black populations are more heavily concentrated in urban areas than in MS, SC, and AL... Could that be it?

[OneJ]

In the case of MS, turnout was low on both sides.

Trump barely got 700,000 votes (less than Romney and Trumpvisited the state a few) while Hillary garnered only 485,000 compared to Obama's 562,000.

I didn't expect the swing to happen either, but it looks very obvious to me.

I haven't looked much into SC or AL, but I have to admit SC was also surprising.

[nclib]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

This makes sense, but doesn't totally explain it. Urban blacks turned out better than rural blacks. The 6 counties in MS/AL that swung Dem were relatively urban/suburban. However, the strongest GOP swings in MS were in NE Miss. which has a relatively low black population and a relatively high white Dem proportion. This was true to a lesser extent in Ala. SC is less surprising as it has a higher proportion of white Dems compared to the Deep South.

[VPH]

Well, I had assumed Obama had bottomed out among White Southern voters. Tishomingo, MS; Colbert, AL; and Jackson, AL prove me wrong. There were still old-school White Southern rural Democrats voting for Obama in 2012, stunningly enough.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

Yeah, but Black turnout in the Deep South has been quite high in past elections (even when Obama was not on the ballot) and it seems to have been higher this year in LA and GA than MS, AL and SC for some reason. There's also been talk of SC and MS being competitive because of Trump's weaknesses among White suburban voters. Heck, even in AL (which is quite suburban) he did much better than Romney.

Trump didn't utterly collapse with wealthy suburbanites in places like Shelby, AL and Lexington, SC, unlike what happened in similar suburbs in Georgia and Texas.  I'm not really sure why, though.

Aren't the Birmingham suburbs in Shelby overwhelmingly white compared to the more colorful suburbs of Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas (to a lesser extent)?

[hopper]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

Yeah, but Black turnout in the Deep South has been quite high in past elections (even when Obama was not on the ballot) and it seems to have been higher this year in LA and GA than MS, AL and SC for some reason. There's also been talk of SC and MS being competitive because of Trump's weaknesses among White suburban voters. Heck, even in AL (which is quite suburban) he did much better than Romney.

Trump didn't utterly collapse with wealthy suburbanites in places like Shelby, AL and Lexington, SC, unlike what happened in similar suburbs in Georgia and Texas.  I'm not really sure why, though.

I suppose "The Texas Triangle" suburbs of Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio suburbs are not "Southern" culturally and those Texas Suburbs have more in common culturally with the Phoenix, AZ Suburbs than say Shelby, AL  or Lexington, SC.

Georgia-I think GA as a whole trended D because of "College Educated Whites" that live in the Atlanta Burb's.

[Heisenberg]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

Yeah, but Black turnout in the Deep South has been quite high in past elections (even when Obama was not on the ballot) and it seems to have been higher this year in LA and GA than MS, AL and SC for some reason. There's also been talk of SC and MS being competitive because of Trump's weaknesses among White suburban voters. Heck, even in AL (which is quite suburban) he did much better than Romney.

Trump didn't utterly collapse with wealthy suburbanites in places like Shelby, AL and Lexington, SC, unlike what happened in similar suburbs in Georgia and Texas.  I'm not really sure why, though.

I suppose "The Texas Triangle" suburbs of Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio suburbs are not "Southern" culturally and those Texas Suburbs have more in common culturally with the Phoenix, AZ Suburbs than say Shelby, AL  or Lexington, SC.

Georgia-I think GA as a whole trended D because of "College Educated Whites" that live in the Atlanta Burb's.

That sounds reasonable. The HOU-DFW-SAT suburbs are more southwestern, and ATL is growing and rapidly diversifying. Places like, say, Birmingham, are more White and racially polarized, less neoliberal, and just aren't as anti-Trump.

Of course, the DC suburbs are super unique. Government is literally life there. so no turnout drops for midterm and special elections. And they'd never vote for someone who wants to drain the swamp or eliminate their jobs and stuff.

[hopper]

Why were these states even more Republican than in 2012? Especially MS was quite surprising..

Why is this surprising? It actually makes perfect sense. These are states where it's almost a mathematical equation that white=republican, black=democrat.

Black turnout was destined to fall, so democratic performance was destined to fall.

Yeah, but Black turnout in the Deep South has been quite high in past elections (even when Obama was not on the ballot) and it seems to have been higher this year in LA and GA than MS, AL and SC for some reason. There's also been talk of SC and MS being competitive because of Trump's weaknesses among White suburban voters. Heck, even in AL (which is quite suburban) he did much better than Romney.

Trump didn't utterly collapse with wealthy suburbanites in places like Shelby, AL and Lexington, SC, unlike what happened in similar suburbs in Georgia and Texas.  I'm not really sure why, though.

I suppose "The Texas Triangle" suburbs of Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio suburbs are not "Southern" culturally and those Texas Suburbs have more in common culturally with the Phoenix, AZ Suburbs than say Shelby, AL  or Lexington, SC.

Georgia-I think GA as a whole trended D because of "College Educated Whites" that live in the Atlanta Burb's.

That sounds reasonable. The HOU-DFW-SAT suburbs are more southwestern, and ATL is growing and rapidly diversifying. Places like, say, Birmingham, are more White and racially polarized, less neoliberal, and just aren't as anti-Trump.

Of course, the DC suburbs are super unique. Government is literally life there. so no turnout drops for midterm and special elections. And they'd never vote for someone who wants to drain the swamp or eliminate their jobs and stuff.

Well the Atlanta burbs' are growing I think more than the City of Atlanta itself I think. Most of the diversifying of the Atlanta Burbs' are from a lot of Black Northeastern transplants moving there.

The DC Burbs' in NOVA are socially liberal now like its neighbor MD too in addition to the Governments Jobs factor.

[heatcharger]

These three states can be explained away by black turnout dropping for reasons.

The Democratic vote in TX is not nearly as reliant on African-Americans, so the swing among college-educated whites wasn't counteracted as heavily as it was in GA, where if turnout remained where it was in 2012, it would've been within a point or so.

Of course, the DC suburbs are super unique. Government is literally life there. so no turnout drops for midterm and special elections. And they'd never vote for someone who wants to drain the swamp or eliminate their jobs and stuff.

Yeah, we pray to the federal government up here for indefinite employment.

Of course, federal employment only accounts for 14% of the workforce in the D.C. Metro area, which is fourth in the nation. Besides, much of the bureaucratic work that's done in the area is attributed to defense and security contracts that are awarded, cutting spending for which would be complete anathema to Republicans. Trump hasn't done too much swamp draining, has he? Oh, right, it's mostly populist bullshit fed to people in Middle America.

[hopper]

These three states can be explained away by black turnout dropping for reasons.

The Democratic vote in TX is not nearly as reliant on African-Americans, so the swing among college-educated whites wasn't counteracted as heavily as it was in GA, where if turnout remained where it was in 2012, it would've been within a point or so.

Of course, the DC suburbs are super unique. Government is literally life there. so no turnout drops for midterm and special elections. And they'd never vote for someone who wants to drain the swamp or eliminate their jobs and stuff.

Yeah, we pray to the federal government up here for indefinite employment.

Of course, federal employment only accounts for 14% of the workforce in the D.C. Metro area, which is fourth in the nation. Besides, much of the bureaucratic work that's done in the area is attributed to defense and security contracts that are awarded, cutting spending for which would be complete anathema to Republicans. Trump hasn't done too much swamp draining, has he? Oh, right, it's mostly populist bullshit fed to people in Middle America.

To answer your question "no" he hasn't.

[SingingAnalyst]

Well, I had assumed Obama had bottomed out among White Southern voters. Tishomingo, MS; Colbert, AL; and Jackson, AL prove me wrong. There were still old-school White Southern rural Democrats voting for Obama in 2012, stunningly enough.

As well as Itawamba, MS and George, MS, both of whom gave Clinton McGovern-like percentages (barely 10%, meaning Clinton's share of the white vote in these counties was probably single digits).