2,392

[LLR]

The first thing you wonder when clicking on this is... what does 2,392 mean?

Well, 2392 is 46*52. So, my project here is to make district maps of each state (+DC and Puerto Rico) with 46 districts (an arbitrary number, for the most part). This is more of an exercise on population distribution than anything, but I thought it to be interesting. I will put a post up in a moment with Maine, but if you have any questions please ask.

You can think of this as a collection of State Senate maps, but I will provide national totals. The average district in Wyoming will have just over 10,000 people. California, closer to 800,000.

[LLR]

MAINE



(Sadly, DRA no longer has background maps. )


SOUTH MAINE/YORK COUNTY



District 1: Southern Tip (sky blue): 95% white and not entirely urban, but this tiny district voted 61% for Obama. Safe D
District 2: Lebanon (green): This district is mostly rural, and is basically on the national average. Tossup
District 3: Kennebunkport (brown): 96% white, but on the coast. Likely D
District 4: Saco (red): Mostly in an urban area. 66% for obama. Safe D
District 5: Old Orchard Beach (yellow): At 60% for Obama, hard to see this district flip. Safe D
District 6: Lake Arrowhead (teal): This snaky district is a bit to the left of the nation but not by much. Lean D
District 7: Sanford (gray): Could conceivably flip in a wave, but Safe D

(Key - Party: Seats (Safe/Likely/Lean)
Democrats: 6 (4/1/1)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

PORTLAND/CUMBERLAND COUNTY



District 8: Cape Elizabeth (blue): Safe D. Not much to say.
District 9: Gorham (green): A suburb, but a blue suburb. Likely D
Districts 10-13: Portland: All are Safe D
District 14: Falmouth and Islands (ugly brown-ish color): A very wealthy district, I'd think. Safe D
District 15: Brunswick (orange): Over the county line, but I'll count it here. Very slightly diverse. (Only 92% white!) Safe D
District 16: Gray (light green): Lean D
District 17: Nowhere (a very bad color that should not exist): Tossup

Democrats: 9 (7/1/1)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

ANDROSCOGGIN, SAGAHADOC, LINCOLN, KENNEBEC COUNTIES



District 18: Sagahadoc County (yellow): The town of Bath keeps this one Safe D
District 19: Lincoln County (green-brown): Thanks to Bristol, Likely D
District 20: Gardiner (pinkish): Lean D
District 21: Lewiston suburbs (maroon): Tossup
District 22: East Lewiston (brown): Urban and Safe D
District 23: West Lewiston (light teal): The urban part keeps it Safe D
District 24: Leeds (purple): Still Lean D, even though it's very rural.
District 25: The awful U shaped one in or near Augusta (pink): Surprisingly, Lean D
District 26: East Augusta (a bad color somewhat close to brown): Safe D

Democrats: 8 (4/2/2)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

KNOX, WALDO, HANCOCK, AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES

[the below districts are big enough that you can refer to the original map]

District 27: Rockland (blue-green): Safe D
District 28: Washington (pink): This ugly gerrymandered district isn't even gerrymandered for a purpose. Likely D
District 29: Freedom and Liberty (I don't even know what to classify this color as): Ironically, the first Lean R district (yes those are the real town names)
District 30: Bar Harbor (purple): Safe D
District 31: South-of-bangor (tan): Another Lean R (Thanks, suburbia)
District 32: Washington County (orange-red): Lean R by virtue of having literally no people in it.

Democrats: 3 (2/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 3 (0/0/3)

AROOSTOOK, PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES



(just a close-up of Bangor)

District 33: Bangor (blue): Only Likely D, which I find odd.
District 34: East-of-Bangor (green): But this one is Safe D
District 35: Hermon (purple): Safe R (that's a first)
District 36: North-of-Bangor (orange): Safe R rural areas
District 37: Rural area up north but not so far north (blue): Safe R ], more rural areas.
District 38: Houlton (turquoise-ish): Despite being 3% Native American, Safe R
District 39: North (light yellow): This one's a little oversize, but i wanted it to look nice. Safe D (don't know why - I blame Canada)
District 40: Moosehead Lake (maroon): Likely R because white people

Democrats: 3 (2/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 5 (4/1/0)

WEST MAINE (SOMERSET, FRANKLIN, OXFORD COUNTIES)

[the below districts are big enough that you can refer to the original map]

District 41: Waterville (gray): Lean D
District 42: Belgrade (light green): Safe D
District 43: Paris (pink): Likely D (sorry, none of these districts are interesting)
District 44: West Oxford County (orange): Safe D
District 45: That really big one stretching along the western border (teal): Lean D

Democrats: 5 (2/1/2)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

Then I was left with no empty precincts but I needed a District 46 so I cobbled it together. It's the pink one in Bangor, and it's Likely R


Totals:

34 to 9 with 3 tossups

Safe D: 21
Likely D: 7
Lean D: 6
Tossup: 3
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 4


Why can't every state be like Maine?

[LLR]

NEW HAMPSHIRE



STRAFFORD AND ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES



District 1: Portsmouth (sky blue): Urban areas make this one incredibly Safe D
District 2: Stratham (green): This suburban district is 95% white and yet Likely D
District 3: Hampton (brown): It voted for Obama, but it's Likely R
District 4: Brentwood (red): A far suburban district. Tossup
District 5: Newton and Kingston yellow): Safe R
District 6: Salem (turquoise): This is a one-precinct district. It is  Safe R
District 7: East Derry (gray): Another  Safe R
District 8: Derry (blue): Derry itself is very Republican, and its suburbs even more so.  Safe R
District 9: Londonderry (green): Another one-precincter.  Safe R
District 10: Auburn (pink):  Safe R
District 11: Nottingham (lime): Tossup, though it contains deep-blue Lee.
District 12: South Dover (periwinkle): It's Safe D
District 13: Town of Somersworth (pink): 5% Asian and thus Safe D
District 14: West Rochester (brown): Urban and Likely D
District 15: Farmington (orange): Tossup


Democrats: 5 (3/2/0)
Tossups: 3
Republicans: 7 (6/1/0)

CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES



District 16: Hudson (blue-green): I had to make this one oversize - to compensate, District 17 is undersize. Anyhow, this one is suburban and Safe R
District 17: South Nashua (blue-purple): For a 75% white and urban district, fairly weak for Dems. Likely D
District 18: East Nashua (yellow): Also 75% white, but with Hispanics rather than Asians making this one Safe D
District 19: North Nashua (pistachio): Underwhelming for an urban district. Likely D
District 20: Southern border west of Nashua (pink): McCain won this one by 5 votes. Likely R
District 21: Merrimack (brown): I love the one-precinct districts. Likely R
District 22: Ugly thing straddling county border (brown): Likely R, but basically safe.
District 23: Bedford-Manchester (blue-green): Bedford is a red juggernaut. Likely R
District 24: Milford (purple): Weirdly democratic for a suburb. Tossup
District 25: Inner Manchester (pink): 14% Hispanic and Safe D
District 26: North Manchester (gray): Whiter and thus only Likely D
District 27: West Manchester (aqua): Likely D
District 28: New Boston (pink): Likely R. Deviation of just 7 (I always get proud of myself for being so close)
District 29: An abominably shaped district (with an abominable color): Tossup
District 30: Peterborough (pink): Lean D
District 31: South-of-Keene (yellowy): Keene's suburbs are Safe D
District 32: Keene (orange-red): Almost 70% for Obama, Safe D

Democrats: 9 (4/4/1)
Tossups: 2
Republicans: 6 (1/5/0)

Those four counties are the bulk of the state's population.

SULLIVAN, MERRIMACK, BELKNAP COUNTIES

[big enough districts that you can refer to the first image]

District 33: Claremont (blue): Safe D for some reason
District 34: Newport (green): This is very rural but somehow Safe D
District 35: Franklin-Warner (purple): Safe D
District 36: Franklin-Concord (orange): Stuck between cities, still Likely D
District 37: Hooksett (blue): Tossup
District 38: Concord (green?): Safe D
District 39: Chichester (pink): Voted Obama by under 100 votes, but it's Likely R
District 40: Gilford (maroon): Not enough of Laconia to add Democratic influence. Likely R
District 41: Laconia (blue-gray): Laconia is not a very Democratic city. Tossup

Democrats: 5 (4/1/0)
Tossups: 2
Republicans: 2 (0/2/0)

EVERYTHING ELSE (NORTH NH)

[big enough districts that you can refer to the first image]

District 42: Enfield-Plymouth (lime): Safe D
District 43: Lebanon (pink): The most Democratic district in the state. Safe D
District 44: North Grafton County (orange): Sparsely populated, Likely D nonetheless, thanks to Vermont border towns.
District 45: Coos County (turquoise): Much of it is uninhabited, but the weird libertarians make this Safe D
District 46: Bartlett (pink): Safe D

Democrats: 5 (4/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)


Totals:

24 to 15 with 7 tossups.

Safe D: 15
Likely D: 8
Lean D: 1
Tossup: 7
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 8
Safe R: 7

Overall Total

Democrats: 58 (36/15/7)
Tossups: 10
Republicans: 24 (11/10/3)

[bagelman]

it seems like it but just to make sure you are avoiding gerrymandering right?

[LLR]

it seems like it but just to make sure you are avoiding gerrymandering right?

I am avoiding intentional gerrymandering for political purposes, yes.

[muon2]

Any thoughts on judging the districts in states that have swung a lot in 8 years? The 2008 data isn't that helpful. Also, are you applying any specific criteria to your plans; eg. pop within 1%, minimizing county and town chops, etc.?

[LLR]

Any thoughts on judging the districts in states that have swung a lot in 8 years? The 2008 data isn't that helpful. Also, are you applying any specific criteria to your plans; eg. pop within 1%, minimizing county and town chops, etc.?

I'll do my best to analyze based on the data given, but it will be imperfect, and I understand that.

It is sometimes necessary to go a fair bit above 1% when dealing with these small districts. My criteria so far has been fairly relaxed, considering that ME and NH's districts are both worth ~28,000 people, but I've rarely had more of a deviation than 3,000 (which is still greater than 10%, I know.) But among bigger states, 1% would be ideal. And minimizing urban center/county chops is ideal, yes.

[publicunofficial]

Yeah, for some reason I don'tthink that Maine map results in a massive Dem majority.

[muon2]

Any thoughts on judging the districts in states that have swung a lot in 8 years? The 2008 data isn't that helpful. Also, are you applying any specific criteria to your plans; eg. pop within 1%, minimizing county and town chops, etc.?

I'll do my best to analyze based on the data given, but it will be imperfect, and I understand that.

It is sometimes necessary to go a fair bit above 1% when dealing with these small districts. My criteria so far has been fairly relaxed, considering that ME and NH's districts are both worth ~28,000 people, but I've rarely had more of a deviation than 3,000 (which is still greater than 10%, I know.) But among bigger states, 1% would be ideal. And minimizing urban center/county chops is ideal, yes.

In the real world state legislative districts can't deviate more than 5% unless there is a compelling state interest. That usually means some set of rigorous standards uniformly applied. That's why I asked if you were applying any.

Avoiding chops is ideal. It isn't that hard to count them and see if they are minimized. That's especially true if chops are the only rigorous standard other than reducing population inequality.

[LLR]

VERMONT

Districts are only 13,000 people . Wish me luck.



BENNINGTON AND WINDHAM COUNTIES

[districts are big enough to refer to master image]

District 1: Pownal (blue): Safe D
District 2: Bennington (green): Safe D
District 3: Manchester (brown): Safe D (all these districts are boring)
District 4: West Brattleboro (red): Safe D
District 5: East Brattleboro (yellow): 80%+ for Obama and only 91% white. Safe D
District 6: Westminster (aqua): Safe D

Democrats: 6 (6/0/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES

[districts are big enough to refer to master image]

District 7: Springfield (gray): Safe D *yaaaawn* Southern Vermont is boring
District 8: Windsor (blue): Safe D
District 9: Hartland (dark green): Safe D
District 10: Norwich (pink): Safe D
District 11: Rochester (light green): Rochester is too big to make this anything other than Safe D
District 12: East Rutland (light blue): Least safe of them so far, but still Safe D
District 13: West Rutland (pink): Safe D
District 14: Poultney (brownish-green): Safe D
District 15: Castleton (orange): Safe D

Democrats: 9 (9/0/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

ADDISON, WASHINGTON, AND ORANGE COUNTIES

[districts are big enough to refer to master image]

District 16: Vergennes (green): Safe D
District 17: Middlebury (blue): Safe D by a lot
District 18: Bristol (yellow): Safe D
District 19: Tunbridge (green): Safe D
District 20: Corinth (pink): Safe D
District 21: Northfield (maroon): Safe D
District 22: Barre (brown): It was impossible to keep contiguity and a reasonable size both, so I compensated by shrinking district 23. This one is Safe D
District 23: Waterbury (aqua): Safe D. It's ugly, but it avoids a county chop.
District 24: Montpelier (purple): Montpelier and Plainfield are both super blue. Safe D

Democrats: 9 (9/0/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

CHITTENDEN AND GRAND ISLE COUNTIES (Burlington+)



District 25: Hinesburg (pink): Safe D
District 26-31: Burlington: All are Safe D
District 32: Williston (orange): Safe D
District 33: Essex Junction (blue): Oversized, Safe D
District 34: Essex (green): Safe D
District 35: Jericho (purple): Safe D
District 36: Milton (orange): This could conceivably flip in a wave - Milton is fairly conservative. Likely D
District 37: Grand Isle (blue): Safe D

Democrats: 13 (12/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

NORTHERN VERMONT

[districts are big enough to refer to master image]

District 38: St. Albans (blue): Safe D
District 39: Fairfax (tan): Safe D
District 40: Berkshire (maroon): Safe D
District 41: Stowe (gray): Unintentional gerrymander. Safe D
District 42: Hyde Park (green): Annoying county chop, but better than the four-county mess it could've been. Safe D
District 43: This one's just a mess (pink): Safe D
District 44: St. johnsbury (orange): Likely D
District 45: Lyndon-Barton (aqua): Safe D
District 46: Northeast Vermont (pink): Safe D

Democrats: 9 (8/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

I kept waiting for the conservatives to show up...


I know this looks bad and makes you doubt my rating system but literally all but 4 of these "Safe D" districts were 60% Obama...

Totals:

46 to 0 with 0 tossups

Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Tossup: 0
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 0
Safe R: 0

Overall Total:

Democrats: 104 (80/17/7)
Tossups: 10
Republicans: 24 (11/10/3)

And this is why Bernie Sanders wouldn't have won in the Midwest.

[muon2]

VERMONT

Districts are only 13,000 people . Wish me luck.


I kept waiting for the conservatives to show up...


I know this looks bad and makes you doubt my rating system but literally all but 4 of these "Safe D" districts were 60% Obama...

Totals:

46 to 0 with 0 tossups

Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Tossup: 0
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 0
Safe R: 0

That's because Pub doesn't always equal conservative in the national sense. There are regional differences. The VT Senate had 9/30 Pubs going into the 2016 election and 7/30 afterwards. Either way it's a lot more than 0.

[LLR]

VERMONT

Districts are only 13,000 people . Wish me luck.


I kept waiting for the conservatives to show up...


I know this looks bad and makes you doubt my rating system but literally all but 4 of these "Safe D" districts were 60% Obama...

Totals:

46 to 0 with 0 tossups

Safe D: 44
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 0
Tossup: 0
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 0
Safe R: 0

That's because Pub doesn't always equal conservative in the national sense. There are regional differences. The VT Senate had 9/30 Pubs going into the 2016 election and 7/30 afterwards. Either way it's a lot more than 0.

Yes, that's understood. This is a rating on a national sense - don't think of it as

"How would this district vote in a state senate election?"

But rather as

"How would this district vote in a neutral presidential election?"

If only because the tools I have are better for analyzing the second - VT doesn't even have party registration and the racial demographics won't tell me anything.

[LLR]

MASSACHUSETTS



WESTERN MASS

District 1: Berkshire County (sky blue): Really blue area, Safe D
District 2: Greenfield (green): Safe D
District 3: Northampton and Westfield (brown): Safe D
District 4: South Springfield (red): Safe D, 21% Hispanic
District 5: Chicopee/West Springfield (yellow): Majority-minority, 36% Hispanic. Safe D
District 6: Springfield-Southbridge (teal): A healthy mix of suburbs and Springfield minorities makes this one an interesting seat, albeit Safe D
District 7: Fitchburg and Gardner (gray): This one has a lot of rural areas and is Likely D
District 8: Lancaster (blue): Likely D
District 9: Worcester (green): 24% Hispanic and easily Safe D
District 10: Auburn (pink): Tossup - at 92% white, this makes sense
District 11: Grafton (lime): The small bit of Worcester keeps this one Likely D

Democrats: 10 (7/3/0)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

MIDDLESEX AND ESSEX COUNTIES



District 12: Westford (blue): Likely D
District 13: Lowell (pink): Lowell is blue, but the suburbs are red. Likely D
District 14: Billerica (green): Tossup. Not bad for a random stretch of suburbia
District 15: Marlborough (orange): Safe D. 7% Asian.
District 16: Framingham (green): Safe D
District 17: Waltham (blue): 11% Asian suburbs. Safe D
District 18: Newton (yellow): Safe D
District 19: Cambridge (green): 86% Obama. Thank you smart people! Safe D
District 20: Medford (pink): Safe D
District 21: Malden (maroon): One of the few districts with 10% of four different races. Likewise, Safe D
District 22: Wakefield (brown): Lean D
District 23: Lynn (teal): Safe D. 22% Hispanic
District 24: Salem (purple): Urban areas keep this Safe D
District 25: Lawrence (pink): Almost plurality Hispanic. Safe D
District 26: Haverhill (gray): Gerrymandered to be only Lean D
District 27: Newbury (green): Rich white people on the coast are Safe D

Democrats: 15 (11/2/2)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

SUFFOLK COUNTY



District 28: Chelsea and Revere (pink): At 36% Hispanic, this one's Safe D
District 29-33: Boston: Safe D all around

Democrats: 6 (6/0/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

NORFOLK COUNTY

District 34: Weymouth (green): Lean D
District 35: Canton (purple): Safe D
District 36: Dover (orange): Likely D
District 37: Franklin (blue): Lean D. For a relatively population-dense district, fairly conservative.

Democrats: 4 (1/1/2)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

SOUTHERN MASS

District 38: Norwell (turquoise): Tossup
District 39: Brockton (tan): Safe D. Notably this district is 10% Other, racially.
District 40: Middleborough (brown): Lean R
District 41: Sandwich (gray): Lean D
District 42: Taunton (lime): Lean D
District 43: Attleboro (pink): Lean D
District 44: Fall River (orange): Safe D urban areas, etc.
District 45: New Bedford (teal): Safe D
District 46: Eastern Massachusetts (pink): Safe D wealthy whites

Democrats: 7 (4/0/3)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 1 (0/0/1)


Totals:

42 to 1 with 3 tossups

Safe D: 29
Likely D: 6
Lean D: 7
Tossup: 3
Lean R: 1
Likely R: 0
Safe R: 0

Overall Total:

Democrats: 146 (109/23/14)
Tossups: 13
Republicans: 25 (11/10/9)

I love the Northeast...

[LLR]

RHODE ISLAND



PROVIDENCE COUNTY



District 1: Burrillville (sky blue): Tossup, white and rural
District 2: Foster (green): Likely R, similar to the above district
District 3: South Cranston (brown): Lean D, the slightest bit diverse
District 4: Cranston (red): Likely D
District 5: North Providence (yellow): Likely D
District 6: Smithfield (teal): Lean D, suburban, etc.
District 7: Branch Village (gray): Likely D
District 8: Woonsocket (blue): Safe D, 13% Hispanic
District 9: Cumberland (green): Likely D even in the middle of nowhere
District 10: Lincoln (pink): Likely D
District 11: North Pawtucket (green): Safe D
Districts 12-28: Pawtucket/Providence/Cranston: All Safe D

Democrats: 26 (19/5/2)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 1 (0/1/0)

KENT COUNTY

District 29: Warwick (sickly green): Safe D
District 30: Also Warwick (pink): Also Safe D
District 31: Hillsgrove (tan): Likely D
District 32: Lippitt (orange): Lean D
District 33: West Warwick (blue): Safe D
District 34: Coventry (green): Safe D
District 35: Wickaboxet (purple): Lean D

Democrats: 7 (4/1/2)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND

District 36: Westerly (orange): Likely D
District 37: Weekapaug (blue): Safe D
District 38: Narragansett and Block Island (teal): Safe D
District 39: South Kingstown (tan): Safe D
District 40: North Kingstown (maroon): Safe D. These are all right on the edge of Likely and Safe - a wave would not be pretty here
District 41: Prudence Island and a whole lot of other stuff (gray): Likely D
District 42: Warren (lime): Safe D
District 43: Seekonk (pink): Safe D
District 44: Tiverton (orange): Safe D
District 45: Middletown (teal): Safe D
District 46: Newport (pink): Safe D

Democrats: 11 (9/2/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)


Totals

44 to 1 with 1 tossup

Safe D: 32
Likely D: 8
Lean D: 4
Tossup: 1
Lean R: 0
Likely R: 1
Safe R: 0

Overall Total:

Democrats: 190 (141/31/18)
Tossups: 14
Republicans: 26 (11/11/4)

[LLR]

Apologies that updates have been scarce recently, I do my best...

CONNECTICUT



NEW LONDON, WINDHAM, AND TOLLAND COUNTIES

District 1: Stonington (blue): Fairly diverse and Likely D
District 2: New London (green): Decently urban and Hispanic Safe D
District 3: South Norwich (brown): Likely D
District 4: Plainfield (red): Likely D
District 5: Windham (yellow): An odd very Safe D pocket
District 6: Killingly-Thompson (teal): Lean D
District 7: Vernon (gray): Home of my favorite deli in the world, Likely D

Democrats: 7 (3/3/1)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

HARTFORD COUNTY

District 8: Enfield (blue): Likely D
District 9: Bloomfield/North-of-Hartford (green): Significantly black, Safe D
District 10: Simsbury (pink): Safe D
District 11: Hartford (green): Only 35% white and thus Safe D
District 12: Manchester (sky blue): Safe D
District 13: Hartford (pink): This one is more Hispanic, while District 11 is more black. Safe D anyhow
District 14: West Hartford (green): Safe D
District 15: Rocky Hill (orange): Safe D
District 16: Newington (green): Safe D
District 17: New Britain (blue): Safe D, 24% Hispanic
District 18: Bristol (yellow): Likely D
District 19: Southington (green): Tossup

Democrats: 11 (9/2/0)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

NEW HAVEN AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES

District 20: Deep River (pink): Likely D
District 21: Middletown (maroon): Safe D
District 22: Eastern Meriden (brown): Safe D
District 23: Meriden-Cheshire (turquoise): Likely D
District 24: Waterbury (purple): Under 40% white and Safe D
District 25: Naugatuck (pink): Likely R
District 26: Ansonia (gray): Tossup
Districts 27-29: New Haven: All Safe D
District 30: Branford (pink): Likely D
District 31: New Haven Harbor (tan): Likely D
District 32: Stratford (orangered): Tossup

Democrats: 10 (6/4/0)
Tossups: 2
Republicans: 1 (0/1/0)

FAIRFIELD AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES

District 33: Canaan (blue): Lean D
District 34: Watertown (green): Safe R
District 35: New Milford (purple): Lean R
District 36: Monroe (orange): Likely R
District 37: Danbury (blue): Competitive for a 21% Hispanic seat. Likely D
District 38: Ridgefield (green): Sorry, this is an ugly-ass district. Lean D
District 39: Turnbull (tan): Tossup
District 40: Bridgeport (maroon): Safe D
District 41: Bridgeport and Fairfield (gray): Safe D, super diverse
District 42: Westport and Fairfield (green): Whiter, but still Safe D
District 43: Norwalk (pink): Safe D
District 44: Greenwich (orange): Lean R
District 45: Stamford (teal): Safe D and fairly diverse
District 46: Stamford (salmon): Likely D

Democrats: 9 (5/2/2)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 4 (1/1/2)


Totals:

37 to 5 with 4 tossups

Safe D: 23
Likely D: 11
Lean D: 3
Tossup: 4
Lean R: 2
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 1

Democrats: 227 (164/42/21)
Tossups: 18
Republicans: 31 (12/13/6)

[LLR]

My laptop doesn't like big states like New York, but I should have an update within the next few days.

[LLR]

LLR's poor laptop was having trouble handling its/his home state. Sad!

NEW YORK



LONG ISLAND

District 1: The Hamptons (blue): 16% Hispanic, but Tossup
District 2: Stony Brook (green): Lean R and 20% Hispanic.
District 3: Bay Shore (brown): Tossup
District 4: Huntington (red): Tossup
District 5: Hicksville (yellow): Lean R
District 6: Freeport (teal): Likely D
District 7: Hempstead (gray)Likely D

Democrats: 2 (0/2/0)
Tossups: 3
Republicans: 2 (0/0/2)

NYC




Districts 8-26: All Safe D, except 17 (the blue-grey one on Staten Island), which is Safe R. Almost all minority-majority.

Democrats: 18 (18/0/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 1 (1/0/0)

SOUTH OF ALBANY (WESTCHESTER, ROCKLAND, PUTNAM, DUCHESS, COLUMBIA, GREENE, DELAWARE, ULSTER, SULLIVAN, AND ORANGE COUNTIES)

District 27: Yonkers (turquoise): Safe D
District 28: Scarsdale (pink): Safe D. Thank you rich Jews!
District 29: Spring Valley (gray): Likely D
District 30: Orange County (salmon): Lean R
District 31: Poughkeepsie (tan): Lean R
District 32: A whole lotta nothing (orange-red): Likely D

Democrats: 4 (2/2/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 2 (0/0/2)

UPSTATE

District 33: Albany (blue): Safe D
District 34: Schenectady (green): Lean D
District 35: Northern NY (purple): Likely D
District 36: Watertown (orange): Safe R
District 37: Utica (blue): Likely R
District 38: Binghamton (green-blue): Lean R
District 39: Syracuse (tan): Safe D
District 40: The area between Rochester and Syracuse (maroon): Lean R
District 41: Ithaca (gray): Safe R
District 42: Fredonia (green): Likely R
District 43: Buffalo (pink): Safe D
District 44: Buffalo suburbs (orange): Lean R
District 45: Brockport (aqua): Safe R
District 46: Rochester (pink): Safe D

Democrats: 6 (4/1/1)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 8 (3/2/3)


Totals:

30 to 13 with 3 tossups

Safe D: 24
Likely D: 5
Lean D: 1
Tossup: 3
Lean R: 7
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 4

Democrats: 257 (188/47/22)
Tossups: 21
Republicans: 44 (16/15/13)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By the way, the SC Senate has 46 seats so it'll be interesting to see how your map compares.

[LLR]

NEW JERSEY



BERGEN AND HUDSON COUNTIES



District 1: Englewood (blue): Likely D
District 2: Fort Lee (green): Safe D
District 3: Hasbrouck Heights (brown): Safe D
District 4: Fair Lawn (red): Lean D
Districts 5-7: Jersey City/Union City: Safe D

Democrats: 7 (5/1/1)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)


PASSAIC, MORRIS, AND ESSEX COUNTIES
District 8: West Milford (blue): Safe R
District 9: Rockaway Township (green): Safe R
District 10: Morristown (pink): Safe R
District 11: Madison (lime): Safe R
District 12: Paterson (blue): Safe D
District 13: Clifton (pink): Safe D
District 14: Montclair (brown): Likely D
District 15: Bloomfield (orange): Safe D
Districts 16 and 17: Newark: Safe D

Democrats: 6 (5/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 4 (4/0/0)

SUSSEX, WARREN, SOMERSET, AND HUNTERDON COUNTIES

District 18: Byram (yellow): Safe R
District 19: Philipsburg-Flemington (green): Safe R
District 20: Somerville (pink): Safe R
District 21: Franklin (maroon): Safe D

Democrats: 1 (1/0/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 3 (3/0/0)

MIDDLESEX AND UNION COUNTIES

District 22: Elizabeth (brown): This is an ugly district, sorry. Safe D
District 23: Kenilworth (periwinkle): Safe D
District 24: Rahway (purple): Safe D
District 25: Woodbridge (pink): Safe D
District 26: Edison (gray): Safe D
District 27: Brunswicks (teal): Safe D
District 28: South Brunswick (pink): Lean D

Democrats: 7 (6/0/1)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 0 (0/0/0)

MONMOUTH AND MERCER COUNTIES

District 29: Aberdeen (gray): Safe R
District 30: Oceanport (pink): Likely R
District 31: Neptune (tan): Lean R
District 32: Washington Township (orange): Likely D
District 33: Trenton (blue): Safe D
District 34: Trenton-Willingboro (green): Safe D

Democrats: 3 (2/1/0)
Tossups: 0
Republicans: 3 (1/1/1)

SOUTH JERSEY (ALL THE REST)

District 35: Pemberton (purple): Likely R
District 36: Point Pleasant (orange): Safe R
District 37: Dover (blue): Safe R
District 38: Shore (teal): Safe R
District 39: Egg Harbor (tan): Safe D
District 40: Millville (maroon): Tossup
District 41: Pennsville (gray): Lean D
District 42-46: Camden and suburbs: All Safe D

Democrats: 7 (6/0/1)
Tossups: 1
Republicans: 4 (3/1/0)


Totals:

31 to 14 with 1 tossup

Safe D: 25
Likely D: 3
Lean D: 3
Tossup: 1
Lean R: 1
Likely R: 2
Safe R: 11

Democrats: 288 (213/50/25)
Tossups: 22
Republicans: 58 (27/17/14)

[DPKdebator]

For Massachusetts, the Norwell district should be Lean R (I have family in the area and it is a conservative region, and at the very least the Sandwich district should be a tossup. In Western Mass, Fitchburg and Gardner should be a tossup. Otherwise, this is awesome- keep up the great work!

[KingSweden]

This is great! WA should be interesting since 46 is just shy of the 49 leg seats