Question about polls - margin of sampling error (user search)
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  Question about polls - margin of sampling error (search mode)
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Author Topic: Question about polls - margin of sampling error  (Read 9221 times)
ShapeShifter
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« on: April 26, 2004, 03:45:02 PM »
« edited: August 23, 2005, 04:12:10 PM by Dave Leip »

When polls say that the lead is within the poll's margin of sampling error what does that mean? Also, could the MOE be higher because of bad sampling?
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ShapeShifter
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« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2004, 04:38:45 PM »
« Edited: April 26, 2004, 04:39:40 PM by Senator ShapeShifter »

Thanks Vorlon for the lesson. Grin

I did not get how you got 68% and 95% thing. I am going to re-read it and if I still don't understand I will probably ask you.

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ShapeShifter
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Posts: 2,711


« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2004, 05:04:15 PM »

Thanks Vorlon for the lesson. Grin

I did not get how you got 68% and 95% thing. I am going to re-read it and if I still don't understand I will probably ask you.



BTW - Cangratulations "Senator" shapeshifter... Roll Eyes

68% is 1 standard deviation in a bi-nomial expansion
95% is 2 standard deviations in a binomial expansion

There is nothng "magical" about 68% and 95% - just two places where the math is easy Cheesy

assumes the questions is evenly divided (ie the "true" result is 50/50) as a practical matter untill you get to huge splits (say 70/30) the difference between the Binomial expansion error and the true error are minimal.

O now I understand. Smiley I was wondering, where the hell you got those number. Smiley

Thanks again for the info and the congradulation. Smiley

Senator Shapesh**tter.
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