New Zealand Election 2017
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Author Topic: New Zealand Election 2017  (Read 47730 times)
Vega
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« on: December 04, 2016, 09:33:56 PM »

Happening in less than a year, and likely to deliver an expected result. John Key has stepped down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Nationals, and Bill English, endorsed by Key as the next leader and therefore PM before the 2017 election.

The Nationals are averaging around 47%, Labour 28%, the Greens 11%, and NZ First 9%. This will likely change when English officially becomes Leader and PM.
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Mazda
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2016, 09:58:17 PM »

If. There's a few mutters of a contested caucus - it's the last chance for a few people. But barring a Donald Trump event from within the Nat caucus, English will be PM.

The last possible date for the election is 18 November, but an early election is expected - partly to minimise the 'unelected PM' stage, and partly because at least two Electorate MPs are expected in the Bubble to leave Parliament by some means or other over the coming months, and nobody wants to fight a by-election so close to the GE.
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DL
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2016, 10:09:35 PM »

Will the National Party gain or lose ground with Keys gone?
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Mazda
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2016, 10:18:28 PM »

Will the National Party gain or lose ground with Keys gone?
Oh, there's no question that Key was one of the most popular PMs we've ever had, and he still is. This was the perfect political resignation - he left about 50% of the country begging for more.

Bill English is much less charismatic and and a lot less popular. He led the Nats before, and led them into the disastrous 2002 election. Fair enough, most of that failure was not his fault, and fair enough, he's been the backroom mastermind of the Key project, but that points to serious issues with the Nats that they'd give him another shot when there are loads of MPs who are younger, fresher and more electable. I have no doubt that English's National Party will attract fewer voters than Key's did.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Labour, much as it pains me to say it so few days after our barnstorming success in Roskill, is still struggling in the wilderness, and is still having to confront the fact that a lot of voters are put off by our putative coalition partners. If we win, we win with Green and NZ First support. That doesn't sound like a three-term Government to me.
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Vega
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2016, 10:45:47 PM »

Will the National Party gain or lose ground with Keys gone?
Oh, there's no question that Key was one of the most popular PMs we've ever had, and he still is. This was the perfect political resignation - he left about 50% of the country begging for more.

Bill English is much less charismatic and and a lot less popular. He led the Nats before, and led them into the disastrous 2002 election. Fair enough, most of that failure was not his fault, and fair enough, he's been the backroom mastermind of the Key project, but that points to serious issues with the Nats that they'd give him another shot when there are loads of MPs who are younger, fresher and more electable. I have no doubt that English's National Party will attract fewer voters than Key's did.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Labour, much as it pains me to say it so few days after our barnstorming success in Roskill, is still struggling in the wilderness, and is still having to confront the fact that a lot of voters are put off by our putative coalition partners. If we win, we win with Green and NZ First support. That doesn't sound like a three-term Government to me.

Andrew Little really isn't three-term Prime Minister material either. There is generally a tendency to go with the bigger personality in NZ politics, but in this election neither candidate will have that going for them. Little might have a chance because of that.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2016, 02:01:55 AM »

Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic
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Mazda
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2016, 10:26:59 PM »

Ex-Labour Leader David Shearer is resigning from Parliament to head up the UN process in South Sudan - Murray McCully leaked this to the entire National Party before most Labour people knew, by the way.

This means that a by-election before the next election is possible - we won't know until Bill English is PM. The alternative is a general election within the next six months or so.

In the red corner, Jacinda Ardern is basically nailed-on to replace Shearer in his Mount Albert electorate, barring upsets.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2016, 11:28:09 PM »

Ex-Labour Leader David Shearer is resigning from Parliament to head up the UN process in South Sudan - Murray McCully leaked this to the entire National Party before most Labour people knew, by the way.

This means that a by-election before the next election is possible - we won't know until Bill English is PM. The alternative is a general election within the next six months or so.

In the red corner, Jacinda Ardern is basically nailed-on to replace Shearer in his Mount Albert electorate, barring upsets.

And here's a link: http://www.nzherald.co.nz//nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11762554

I could see them calling an early election. 6 months should be enough for English or whomever. Nice to hear that Ardern is likely to get a seat of her own.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2016, 10:41:00 AM »

Sad news as Winston Peters announces he will kill himself in the ultimate political stunt:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11766014
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2016, 01:50:59 PM »

This is an excellent idea and he should totally be allowed to do it.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2017, 09:33:35 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2017, 01:44:49 PM by 💛🚿 Comrade Trump 💛🚿 »

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/323564/new-zealand-to-vote-in-general-election-on-23-september

The General Election will be on September 23, 2017.

As a redditor noted, the All Blacks (NZ's national rugby team) do not play that weekend.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2017, 03:33:39 PM »
« Edited: February 01, 2017, 03:35:39 PM by 💛🚿 Comrade Trump 💛🚿 »

http://www.nzherald.co.nz//opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11791809

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/01/24/tdb-summer-election-special-understanding-maori-party-mana-movement-in-2017/

Apparently Mana and the Māori Party are getting along better. This could be interesting in September.
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DL
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« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2017, 08:36:30 PM »

Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2017, 10:01:25 PM »

Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?

I haven't seen any that include Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party, which could be a big player (5% would shake things up quite a bit). The last polls I've seen still have the National Party at 45-50%. Wikipedia only has one poll from after Key's resignation and I haven't found any others online.
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Mazda
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2017, 09:33:35 PM »

Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?

I haven't seen any that include Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party, which could be a big player (5% would shake things up quite a bit). The last polls I've seen still have the National Party at 45-50%. Wikipedia only has one poll from after Key's resignation and I haven't found any others online.
It won't be a big player. If Gareth's lucky, he'll equal the Internet Mana score in 2014.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #15 on: February 03, 2017, 12:47:50 AM »

Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?

I haven't seen any that include Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party, which could be a big player (5% would shake things up quite a bit). The last polls I've seen still have the National Party at 45-50%. Wikipedia only has one poll from after Key's resignation and I haven't found any others online.
It won't be a big player. If Gareth's lucky, he'll equal the Internet Mana score in 2014.

That's definitely plausible. Random polarizing rich person trying to get into politics. He doesn't seem quite as bad as KDC, but he doesn't have other politicians (Harawira and Harre) backing him.

Which side do you expect to be more affected?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: February 03, 2017, 12:56:31 AM »

I guess the Nationals are going to remain in power for the next 30 years or something?
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #17 on: February 03, 2017, 02:24:09 PM »

I guess the Nationals are going to remain in power for the next 30 years or something?

I'm guessing poll numbers will change as people start to pay more attention to the news/election. This will be English's first election as PM (second as party leader; see 2002). Key was quite popular, but I'm not sure if English will be as popular. NZ First could be on the rise. We need more data. As I said, I've hardly seen any polling from the last few months. Labour has been pretty weak. If Little loses in September, I think Ardern could be the next leader.
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Pericles
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2017, 09:40:50 PM »

I fear it will be National and Peters like in 1996.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2017, 01:59:14 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2017, 02:01:12 PM by 💛🚿 Comrade Trump 💛🚿 »

Mana and Māori will be working together, details to be announced.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #20 on: February 16, 2017, 02:07:12 PM »

Harawira propping up a National government would be pretty hilarious.

Though (hopefully) both of them getting burned would be even better tbh.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2017, 03:00:16 PM »

Harawira propping up a National government would be pretty hilarious.

Though (hopefully) both of them getting burned would be even better tbh.

He did support them from 2008-2011. I'd like to see him back. He's interesting to watch, just like WINston is. Can't say I'd want either of them in power though.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #22 on: February 20, 2017, 03:43:14 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2017, 03:47:00 AM by 💛🚿 Comrade Trump 💛🚿 »

Mana will stand Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau and Māori will stand candidates in the other 6 Māori seats. Both will compete for the party vote. http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89581527/hone-harawira-gets-clear-te-tai-tokerau-run-for-mana-not-running-against-maori-party-in-other-seats and http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/324894/maori-and-mana-parties-sign-deal-to-work-together among other articles.

Honestly, this seems like a bum deal for Mana. Yes, they'll likely win a seat, but they're locked out of any other Māori seats and I don't see them winning in any general electorate seats. Assuming Harawira wins, they'll need something like 1.5% of the party vote to get a second seat (assuming my understanding is correct). Mana got 1.08% in 2011 and 1.42% in 2014.

If Māori can pull off more electorate wins, we could see a number of overhang seats.

Edit: If Internet Mana had won Te Tai Tokerau in 2014, IM would have gotten 2 seats.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2017, 09:39:31 PM »

http://www.nzherald.co.nz//nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11851294

A number of new(ish) microparties are popping up for this year's election.

Expats Party - Advocates for NZer's rights abroad
NZ People's Party - Pro-immigrant
The Opportunities Party - Gareth Morgan's play toy
Seniors Party - Seems obvious
Advance New Zealand - See Below
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Let's see if these guys go anywhere. I doubt they will.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2017, 03:14:07 AM »

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why would anyone ever
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