New Zealand Election 2017

[Lachi]

Here is an interesting point about the most recent poll:

If Māori do get 2 percent, and hold their electorate, under Sainte-Laguë, they would go on to win 3 seats, not just 2.

It hardly matters when it comes to forming government though, as a Labour-Green coalition would easily form a majority (56 and 8)

[Panhandle Progressive]

I'm on board with Jacindamania.

Same.

[parochial boy]

Wait, is this supposed to be a bad thing?

I think trotting out the "communists" trope is a tacit admission things aren't going away - both Les Républicains in France and the Tories in Britain pulle out similar lines when it was clear things were going badly wrong.

Agreed we shouldn't derail this although I think if this pans out there seems to be a trend where millennials at least in the English speaking world are trending heavily towards progressive parties.  Whether it be Justin Trudeau in Canada, Bernie Sanders in the US, Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, and now Jacinda Ardern in New Zealand there is a trend.  Each had their own unique reasons off course, but interesting trend nonetheless.  Now outside of the English speaking world you don't see this too much as I believe Merkel is still ahead amongst millennials although in France in the first round Melenchon won amongst millennials but Le Pen did just as well as amongst millennials as older voters although Fillon skewed heavily towards seniors.  I think in the Nordic Countries parties on the right do fairly well amongst millennials but could be wrong, although in the Netherlands Green Left despite coming in fifth I believe came in first amongst millennials.  So it is still interesting to see the trends and do cross country comparisons.

This would be an interesting conversation to have (be careful about that word "trend" though), but probably best done in another topic

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11918231

Now, THIS is interesting, and quite a cool idea.

I had seen a headline about it in supermarkets, but then the article also mentioned having booths in airports, which is neat.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Someone on Reddit made this:

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

New Māori TV/Reid Research poll for Hauraki-Waikato

Candidate Vote

Nanaia Mahuta (Labour) 78%
Rahui Papa (Māori) 22%

Party Vote

Labour 52.6%
NZ First 15.1%
Māori 14.5%
Mana (not reported)

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

New Māori TV/Reid Research poll for Waiariki

Candidate Vote

Te Ururoa Flavell (Māori) 60.1%
Tamati Coffey (Labour) 39.9%

Party Vote

Labour 49.6%
Māori 26.5%
NZ First 10.2%
National 5.6%
Greens 4.8%

[mileslunn]

Here is a poll on how Chinese voters would vote, which I guess isn't too big of a surprise although in most Western countries usually the non-white vote tends to hurt parties on the right.  In the US the Chinese used to go heavily GOP but now heavily Democrat as the party has swung rightward.  Here in Canada they vary between Liberals and Conservatives, but never NDP.  I was wondering about other groups like East Indians or other Asians, do they also favour the National or do they favour Labour.  I suspect the Maori probably favour Labour.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11919332

Another poll shows most want NZ First to back a Labour over National government.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-kiwis-want-nz-first-go-labour-not-national

[DL]

In the US the Chinese used to go heavily GOP but now heavily Democrat as the party has swung rightward.  Here in Canada they vary between Liberals and Conservatives, but never NDP. 

Actually in the recent BC election the NDP made major inroads among the Chinese and elected 4 Chinese MLAs and won several heavily Chinese ridings

[mileslunn]

In the US the Chinese used to go heavily GOP but now heavily Democrat as the party has swung rightward.  Here in Canada they vary between Liberals and Conservatives, but never NDP. 

Actually in the recent BC election the NDP made major inroads among the Chinese and elected 4 Chinese MLAs and won several heavily Chinese ridings

True enough although very recent.  Seems though in New Zealand that isn't happening at least if the poll is correct.  I also think in BC its generational too as the NDP vote probably came mostly from Chinese millennials who were either born in Canada or came as children.  Amongst the older Chinese who came as adults I am pretty sure the BC Liberals won that cohort quite handidly.  Not sure the breakdown in New Zealand of those born there or not born there.

[Lachi]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2017/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504338&objectid=11921278

I find this hilarious.

[mileslunn]

Does New Zealand usually provide exit polls and if so how accurate are they?  If not how quickly do the results come in.  Since it will be midnight the day before for me on Friday, I am wondering if it is worth staying up for (usually I stay up until the bars close at 2AM on Fridays so 9 PM New Zealand time the next day) or better just to check in the morning.

[Lachi]

Does New Zealand usually provide exit polls and if so how accurate are they?  If not how quickly do the results come in.  Since it will be midnight the day before for me on Friday, I am wondering if it is worth staying up for (usually I stay up until the bars close at 2AM on Fridays so 9 PM New Zealand time the next day) or better just to check in the morning.

No, there usually aren't exit polls.

The very first results usually take around 15-20 minutes to come in,

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Does New Zealand usually provide exit polls and if so how accurate are they?  If not how quickly do the results come in.  Since it will be midnight the day before for me on Friday, I am wondering if it is worth staying up for (usually I stay up until the bars close at 2AM on Fridays so 9 PM New Zealand time the next day) or better just to check in the morning.

I'm also in that time zone. I'm planning on staying up until 2-3 AM Saturday on our time. I'm figuring that we'll have a good idea by then. Hopefully.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

[mileslunn]

Seems like National has bounced back although it looks like the polls are a bit over the place.  One that has Labour up by 15 while this with National up by 10 so unless something dramatic happens this could be a rogue poll although we should have a better idea as the week progresses if others confirm the same.  On best PM not much change with English slightly ahead.  Bill English also commented their polls show them neck and neck (although he could be lying just to avoid complacency), but the reaction of the two leaders suggests their own internals show  things being tighter.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

[Lachi]

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

[Lachi]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

Highly, highly unlikely, as this poll would have been taken entirely after it was exposed as a massive lie.

[mileslunn]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

Highly, highly unlikely, as this poll would have been taken entirely after it was exposed as a massive lie.

I think Colmar Brunton who has a good track record comes out later this week.  If they show National surging ahead then it is probably a trend, but if they still show Labour in the lead then likely a rogue poll.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Yeah, it's a shocking poll. The race is still in flux. National ahead by 10 seems like a stretch.

Also Labour ahead by 15 in an earlier poll seems equally silly.  I suspect it's probably less than 5 points separating the main two.  I believe Colmar Bruton who is the most accurate will come out with one near the end of the week so interesting to see what they say.  If they show National pulling ahead then this could be onto something, but if they still show Labour ahead then probably a rogue poll.

Spot on with that 15 for Labour. I mentioned it in other posts in other sites/conversations. I don't trust that one for a moment.

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Perhaps Joyce's $12 billion hole got to people? Also, apparently Labour has been somewhat secretive with their tax policy. Not sure that that adds up to a 10 point lead for National though.

Highly, highly unlikely, as this poll would have been taken entirely after it was exposed as a massive lie.

I think Colmar Brunton who has a good track record comes out later this week.  If they show National surging ahead then it is probably a trend, but if they still show Labour in the lead then likely a rogue poll.

Apparently Roy Morgan is likely coming out this week as well. They have a good track record as well, for what I've heard.

[mileslunn]

Here are the results of the test.  Not surprised I was closest to ACT but surprised National Party was last as I am generally on the right on economic issues although left on social issues so figured New Zealand First and Greens would be further down.

Parties you side with...










ACT
87%ACT
Electoral • Domestic Policy • Immigration • Science • Housing • Environmental • Social • Healthcare • Economic • Foreign Policy • National SecurityVote for


72%Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party
National Security • Electoral • Education • Domestic Policy • Immigration • Housing • Social • Healthcare • Foreign PolicyVote for


Māori Party
67%Māori Party
Immigration • Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Electoral • National Security • HousingVote for


New Zealand First
66%New Zealand First
Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Immigration • Education • Electoral • HousingVote for


Green Party
65%Green Party
Housing • Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Immigration • Domestic Policy • Electoral • National SecurityVote for


The Opportunities Party
65%The Opportunities Party
Immigration • National Security • Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Domestic Policy • Housing • ElectoralVote for


Labour Party
63%Labour Party
Housing • National Security • Electoral • Immigration • Social • Healthcare • Foreign PolicyVote for


United Future
62%United Future
National Security • Electoral • Immigration • Social • Healthcare • Foreign PolicyVote for


Conservative Party
61%Conservative Party
Immigration • Foreign Policy • Economic • Healthcare • Education • Electoral • HousingVote for


61%Mana Party
Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Social • Immigration • Domestic Policy • Electoral • National SecurityVote for


National Party
56%National Party
Foreign Policy • Healthcare • Immigration • Electoral • HousingVote for

[Lachi]

My results

https://newzealand.isidewith.com/en/results/3289392690