New Zealand Election 2017

[Pericles]

Tbh it was pretty obvious if you follow NZ politics that Ardern would give Labour a significant boost, compared to Andrew Little. The question now is whether that's enough for Labour to go from 24% less than 2 months ago to actually winning the election.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Tbh it was pretty obvious if you follow NZ politics that Ardern would give Labour a significant boost, compared to Andrew Little. The question now is whether that's enough for Labour to go from 24% less than 2 months ago to actually winning the election.

Yeah, she was polling well (for a non-leader) in the preferred PM race for a while.

Going from 24% to being in close contention is basically Corbyn 2.0. The question, as you say, is whether or not she can pull it off.

According to this, we should have a good idea of the results very early on. Good thing because I don't want to stay up past 9 PM or so their time (2 AM Calif time).

[Pericles]

Jacinda Ardern's grandmother has died.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/jacinda-ardern-s-grandmother-dies.html

[Kamala]

Jacinda Ardern's grandmother has died.

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/09/jacinda-ardern-s-grandmother-dies.html

RIP. Feel eerily similar to 2008 and Obama's gma.

[Pericles]

My two possible election predictions.
2017 NZ election
Jacinda Ardern-Labour: 53+21 42.71%
Bill English-National: 50-9 40.59%
Winston Peters(lost electorate)-NZ First: 7-5 5.86%
James Shaw-Green: 7-7 5.76%
Te Ururoa Flavell/Marama Fox(lost seat)-Maori: 2_ 1.35%
David Seymour-ACT: 1_ 0.49%
Damian Light-United Future: 0-1 0.10%
120 seats
61 for majority

National cannot form a government. Labour forms a coalition with the Greens and confidence and supply from the Maori Party. Winston Peters is not the kingmaker.

2017 NZ election
Bill English-National: 56-3 43.36%
Jacinda Ardern-Labour: 53+21 41.19%
Winston Peters(lost electorate)-NZ First: 8-4 6.03%
Te Ururoa Flavell/Marama Fox(lost seat)-Maori: 2_ 1.42%
David Seymour-ACT: 1_ 0.48%
James Shaw(lost seat)-Green: 0-14 4.78%
Damian Light-United Future: 0-1 0.09%
120 seats
61 for majority

Labour gets the same MPs in both scenarios but National gets more MPs. Winston Peters is the kingmaker. A National-NZ First coalition is formed.

[mileslunn]

Tbh it was pretty obvious if you follow NZ politics that Ardern would give Labour a significant boost, compared to Andrew Little. The question now is whether that's enough for Labour to go from 24% less than 2 months ago to actually winning the election.

Yeah, she was polling well (for a non-leader) in the preferred PM race for a while.

Going from 24% to being in close contention is basically Corbyn 2.0. The question, as you say, is whether or not she can pull it off.

According to this, we should have a good idea of the results very early on. Good thing because I don't want to stay up past 9 PM or so their time (2 AM Calif time).

She seems more comparable to Trudeau in Canada than Corbyn or in many ways even somewhat like Obama too in terms of charisma. I guess sort of the age as Corbyn seemed more the type like Sanders who could excite passion on issues people felt strongly about while she seems more like a younger charismatic type who can get those not interested in politics interested.  When Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party you saw a similar jump in support as when Ardern became Labour leader although after 18 months of Tory attack ads he fell behind but gradually improved during the campaign.  Another comparison is Sebastian Kurz in Austria as the OVP was in third place in the low 20s before he became leader and is now leading.  Otherwise I would put Ardern in the Kurz and Trudeau category as well as maybe Sadiq Khan in London, charismatic types that get the normally apathetic youth excited, while Corbyn and Sanders are more your old timers but who are very passionate and bring out those who feel the same anger.  Otherwise the latter two appeal to those who are angry at the system and want radical rather than small change whereas I think Ardern more like Trudeau and in fact even Obama too more get people optimistic and hopefuly. 

[IceAgeComing]

I mean the idea that Corbyn didn't get "normally apathetic youth" excited is a very silly one, that any look at the election results or any of the post-election "how did the country vote?" polls would disprove.  The New Zealand Election thread isn't the place to be talking about it though!

My very soft prediction is that Labour get the most seats, and that the Greens get over the 5%.  Very RADICAL prediction, but I don't feel that I know enough about New Zealand specifically to go into more depth than that.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

So, tonight and tomorrow night. Usually they seem to come out at 11 PM PST.

[mileslunn]

So, tonight and tomorrow night. Usually they seem to come out at 11 PM PST.

Should be interesting although not sure much has happened to change things much and with advanced polls they could have less impact.  Could Ardern get some sympathy votes over the death of her Grandma?

I am thinking there are three things to watch for.

1.  Does Labour + Greens get a majority, possible but still I think not the most likely outcome

2.  Do Greens get above 5% or not.  If they get above that improves Labour's chances while if they get below it helps the National.

3.  Is New Zealand First the kingmaker and who do they go for.  If they become the kingmaker my understanding is we won't know until October 12th who will form the next government as that is when they will announce who they are backing.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Should be interesting although not sure much has happened to change things much and with advanced polls they could have less impact.  Could Ardern get some sympathy votes over the death of her Grandma?

I am thinking there are three things to watch for.

1.  Does Labour + Greens get a majority, possible but still I think not the most likely outcome

2.  Do Greens get above 5% or not.  If they get above that improves Labour's chances while if they get below it helps the National.

3.  Is New Zealand First the kingmaker and who do they go for.  If they become the kingmaker my understanding is we won't know until October 12th who will form the next government as that is when they will announce who they are backing.

I feel like Labour+Greens+Māori will have a majority. Not sure if Labour+Greens will. I think the Greens will break 5%.

That obviously would mean that NZ First won't be kingmaker. Honestly, I think Winston might lean Labour? Maybe? Not really sure.

Also, Hone will probably be out.

[mileslunn]

Should be interesting although not sure much has happened to change things much and with advanced polls they could have less impact.  Could Ardern get some sympathy votes over the death of her Grandma?

I am thinking there are three things to watch for.

1.  Does Labour + Greens get a majority, possible but still I think not the most likely outcome

2.  Do Greens get above 5% or not.  If they get above that improves Labour's chances while if they get below it helps the National.

3.  Is New Zealand First the kingmaker and who do they go for.  If they become the kingmaker my understanding is we won't know until October 12th who will form the next government as that is when they will announce who they are backing.

I feel like Labour+Greens+Māori will have a majority. Not sure if Labour+Greens will. I think the Greens will break 5%.

That obviously would mean that NZ First won't be kingmaker. Honestly, I think Winston might lean Labour? Maybe? Not really sure.

Also, Hone will probably be out.

If this happens Canada will no longer be the sole Anglosphere country with a non-right wing government.  After Trump's win we took that role mind you ironically in 2009 Canada and New Zealand were the only two with right wing governments.  Off course UK, Australia, and US all show the non-right either tied or slightly ahead but that is a whole different topic to be discussed elsewhere.

[Lachi]

Also, bringing back up the question of exit polling.

There are no exit polls, because any and all polling on election day is actually illegal.

[Lachi]

Here is another very interesting fact:

Since 1990, each party has been in power in 9 year blocks:
National: 1990-1999 (Bogler 1990-1993, Shipley 1993-1999)
Labour: 1999-2008 (Helen Clark was never booted out while Labour was in Government)
National: 2008-? (Key 2008-2017, English 2017-?)

[mileslunn]

Looks like the earlier Newshub poll might not be a rogue one or could be just volatility otherwise looks like National is on track to win but lets see what the final polls say.


National 46%


Labour 37%


Greens 8%


NZ First 5%


TOP 2%


Maori 1%

Also on best PM

Bill English 37%
Jacinda Ardern 31%

So perhaps Jacindamania is ebbing a bit.  Still not over but I would say National is probably the favourite at the moment but we shall see.  Either way with Labour making a strong comeback they will be in a good position to win in 2020 and no reason Ardern shouldn't stay on win or lose.

[Lachi]

Looks like the earlier Newshub poll might not be a rogue one or could be just volatility otherwise looks like National is on track to win but lets see what the final polls say.


National 46%


Labour 37%


Greens 8%


NZ First 5%


TOP 2%


Maori 1%

Also on best PM

Bill English 37%
Jacinda Ardern 31%

So perhaps Jacindamania is ebbing a bit.  Still not over but I would say National is probably the favourite at the moment but we shall see.  Either way with Labour making a strong comeback they will be in a good position to win in 2020 and no reason Ardern shouldn't stay on win or lose.

I wouldn't put stock in this poll, considering how far of an outlier it is to literally EVERYTHING else...

[mileslunn]

Looks like the earlier Newshub poll might not be a rogue one or could be just volatility otherwise looks like National is on track to win but lets see what the final polls say.


National 46%


Labour 37%


Greens 8%


NZ First 5%


TOP 2%


Maori 1%

Also on best PM

Bill English 37%
Jacinda Ardern 31%

So perhaps Jacindamania is ebbing a bit.  Still not over but I would say National is probably the favourite at the moment but we shall see.  Either way with Labour making a strong comeback they will be in a good position to win in 2020 and no reason Ardern shouldn't stay on win or lose.

I wouldn't put stock in this poll, considering how far of an outlier it is to literally EVERYTHING else.

It matches Newshub and one reporter said it also corresponds with their internal polls mind you turnout especially amongst younger voters, advanced voting as well as last minute swings could all change things.  Agree Labour can still win it's not over, but I do think National at least in popular vote has the edge at the moment.  Now if NZ First falls below 5%, which is unlikely then things can get interesting since if Labour + Greens is less than National they might be close to a majority on their own but if it exceeds them, then with the help of the Maori they may still form government.

[Lachi]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

[mileslunn]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

Does seem strange.  One possibility is the undecided broke heavily in their favour, I've seen that happen in many other jurisdictions late in the game where the undecided breaks heavily in favour of one side.  The other is youth turnout looked lower so they weighted it less.  I guess tomorrow's newshub poll and maybe Roy Morgan if one comes out will confirm or deny this and then off course once the results actually come in.

[mileslunn]

Also National's internal polls were leaked which were:

National 43%

Labour 39%

NZ First 6%

Greens 6%

So actually within the margin of error but a bit tighter.  Also they claimed their numbers softened overnight.  I guess though with the violatility probably a good reason to vote as I could matter and likewise probably good reason not bet a lot of money on any particular outcome.  It's not like the German election the day after where you could probably safely bet on the CDU/CSU coming in first whereas in New Zealand making such a bet for either would be a bit risky.

[Polkergeist]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

It has been 7 weeks since Ardern became leader, maybe the new leader poll bounce is wearing off.

[Polkergeist]

Also interesting both NZF and Green still flirting with 5%. While majority of polling evidence has both at 5% or over, still puts their place in Parliament in play.

Interesting thought, does Labour want NZF in Parliament?

If we take the CB as the current state of play, if NZF are knocked out, it turns Parliament into a straight National-ACT vs Labour-Greens-Maori two horse race.

If NZF are knocked out then Nationals could win outright or with ACT which is more or less the same...

[mgop]

ardern is hardcore liberal, clintonite of worst kind, she cant win. her 'safety net' plan can get her boost, but not win.

[Phony Moderate]

ardern is hardcore liberal, clintonite of worst kind, she cant win. her 'safety net' plan can get her boost, but not win.

Applying American meanings of words to non-American politics...ugh.

[IceAgeComing]

I mean "clintonite" is an entirely meaningless and stupid term to be using outside the American context; its a bit like me going around moaning at random yank politicians being Blairites...

I mean its also nonsense in another way; all of the "hardcore liberals" will probably be either the Nationals or ACT .

Also interesting both NZF and Green still flirting with 5%. While majority of polling evidence has both at 5% or over, still puts their place in Parliament in play.

Interesting thought, does Labour want NZF in Parliament?

If we take the CB as the current state of play, if NZF are knocked out, it turns Parliament into a straight National-ACT vs Labour-Greens-Maori two horse race.

If NZF are knocked out then Nationals could win outright or with ACT which is more or less the same...

I think that they'd rather that NZ First weren't in Parliament, but that they'd rather have them in if it avoided the Nationals either being able to form a single party majority government, or some kind of deal with ACT.  That's a bit of a wishy washy way of looking at it but it is a bit of a nuanced thing.

I'd always be skeptical of leaked private polls - its not like the actual data is publicly available and usually parties have reasons to be leaking private polling data - and its not like you can verify that the numbers are definately 100% accurate.  Any Labour victory depends on how strong the turnout of young people is in my eyes - in some respects there being a week of early voting might help them since it makes voting a lot easier but I'm far from an expert.  That's one other thing that they have going for them as well actually; even if Jacindamania is no longer running wild then it matters less because a large chunk of people already have voted at the start of the week.  We'll see at the weekend though!

[Leftbehind]

Has it really dissipated that quickly?! F**k, Schulz lasted longer than that!