New Zealand Election 2017

[Tintrlvr]

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why would anyone ever

Especially what seem otherwise like lefty-environmentalists? Although, does "introduction of a capital gains tax" mean capital gains aren't taxed currently in New Zealand, or do they want a lower rate the way the US and some other countries have as opposed to taxing them at the same rate as earned income?

[Mazda]

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why would anyone ever

Especially what seem otherwise like lefty-environmentalists? Although, does "introduction of a capital gains tax" mean capital gains aren't taxed currently in New Zealand, or do they want a lower rate the way the US and some other countries have as opposed to taxing them at the same rate as earned income?

We don't currently have a CGT, which is part of why we have a housing bubble in Auckland.

The Upper House is not an idea that has common currency, but it makes a lot of sense, for two reasons:
1) We only have 120-ish MPs, and around a quarter of them are Ministers, which means that they are forced to support any Cabinet decision in Caucus and in the House. Which means that Caucus always votes with the Cabinet. Which means that the law is passed without any chance of defeat at any point, even if it is only supported by a majority of the Cabinet and nobody else. If we had an Upper House, it could send bills back for review.
2) The ability of MPs and their staff, especially in Opposition, to write good bills is extremely limited, partly due to lack of funding (which would be increased with an Upper House) and partly due to lack of time to study all bills, because again, we only have 120-ish MPs. The Upper House would double the manpower available to research and formulate policy, and also slow the legislative process down so that hasty, badly-written bills (of which we have rather a lot) can be withdrawn or amended in response to negative feedback from the public.

It's not the only solution to these problems, but if you had much experience of the Beehive, you'd be desperate for anything.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

This opinion piece tries to make comparisons between NZ and pretty much every European country that isn't Austria.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

The Greens updated their list. Most notably, Chloe Swarbrick is in the 9th spot and is a near lock to become an MP following the election.

Peters claims "Fake Polls" and says he'll get 20% haha, fat chance WINston.

[Vega]

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why would anyone ever

Especially what seem otherwise like lefty-environmentalists? Although, does "introduction of a capital gains tax" mean capital gains aren't taxed currently in New Zealand, or do they want a lower rate the way the US and some other countries have as opposed to taxing them at the same rate as earned income?

We don't currently have a CGT, which is part of why we have a housing bubble in Auckland.

The Upper House is not an idea that has common currency, but it makes a lot of sense, for two reasons:
1) We only have 120-ish MPs, and around a quarter of them are Ministers, which means that they are forced to support any Cabinet decision in Caucus and in the House. Which means that Caucus always votes with the Cabinet. Which means that the law is passed without any chance of defeat at any point, even if it is only supported by a majority of the Cabinet and nobody else. If we had an Upper House, it could send bills back for review.
2) The ability of MPs and their staff, especially in Opposition, to write good bills is extremely limited, partly due to lack of funding (which would be increased with an Upper House) and partly due to lack of time to study all bills, because again, we only have 120-ish MPs. The Upper House would double the manpower available to research and formulate policy, and also slow the legislative process down so that hasty, badly-written bills (of which we have rather a lot) can be withdrawn or amended in response to negative feedback from the public.

It's not the only solution to these problems, but if you had much experience of the Beehive, you'd be desperate for anything.

Why not just increase the number of seats in parliament? Seems more effective than creating an entirely new body.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Haven't been able to find much lately. Google is stupid and is only giving me stuff about the UK election whenever I search for "New Zealand Election." I did find this though:
If anyone wants to read a rant by Hone Harawira, enjoy.

A One News/Colmar Brunton poll from late May has the following results:

National 49
Labour 30
Green 9
NZ First 9
Māori 1
ACT 1
TOP 1
United Future 0
Mana 0
Conservative 0

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Labour down big, Greens and NZ First up in Newshub/Reid poll.

National: 47.4% (-0.3)

Labour: 26.4% (-4.2)

Greens: 12.5% (+1.3%)

NZ First: 9.4% (+1.8%)

ACT: 0.9% (+0.5%)

Opportunities: 0.8% (NC)

Conservatives: 0.8% (+0.4%)

Māori: 0.7% (NC)

United Future: 0.3% (-0.1%)

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-06-2017/gloomy-news-for-labour-in-latest-newshub-poll-and-shane-jones-drops-hint-about-future/

[DL]

Boy New Zealand seems to have by the most BORING politics in the English speaking world - no change from the last election, so swing to the left like we have seen in the UK or Australia or BC, no rise of rightwing populism...what happened? NZ used to have lots of high drama politically

[Phony Moderate]

Boy New Zealand seems to have by the most BORING politics in the English speaking world - no change from the last election, so swing to the left like we have seen in the UK or Australia or BC, no rise of rightwing populism...what happened? NZ used to have lots of high drama politically

Their polling companies don't even treat us to any LULZpolls. The Nationals, I think, have led every single published opinion poll since 2007.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Boy New Zealand seems to have by the most BORING politics in the English speaking world - no change from the last election, so swing to the left like we have seen in the UK or Australia or BC, no rise of rightwing populism...what happened? NZ used to have lots of high drama politically

WINston has been around for a while, so it isn't as dramatic of a rise for NZ First. It's not like they're a new party or one that has never gotten more than a seat or two in the past.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Scandal time!

Prime Minister Bill English is facing awkward questions about how he handled a lawmaker who is accused of making secret recordings and then lying about what he did.

Todd Barclay recorded conversations that he was not privy to and then paid the person whose privacy was invaded a larger than usual sum.

Also, Barclay will not stand in this fall's election.

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Anyone from NZ have a more informed perspective?

[Hydera]

Boy New Zealand seems to have by the most BORING politics in the English speaking world - no change from the last election, so swing to the left like we have seen in the UK or Australia or BC, no rise of rightwing populism...what happened? NZ used to have lots of high drama politically

The Nationals are pretty moderate except for being centre-right on economics. Meanwhile their stance on social issues is pretty liberal which lets them grab social liberal votes/stops social liberals from turning out since they don't feel threatened.

NZ did have a populist surge in the 90s with the populist right-wing NZ First and populist left-wing Alliance party(most of their voters eventually shifted to the greens) because of a crap economy since the recession of the early 80s and another in the early 90s.   

But the economy has been doing pretty well since the early 2000s due to a export boom to growing Asian economies which made support for populist right and left parties to stagnate as they were in the 90s, winning no more than the 450-500K vote range ever since.






Also lot of unemployed kiwis immigrated elsewhere especially to Oz in the 80's/90's. Which meant less potential populist voters that could of went either NZ First or the left-wing parties.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Hone Harawira is calling for the execution of Chinese meth dealers.

Kelvin Davis trolled him pretty hard though:

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Typical bluster from Harawira. I had liked him having around because he could be useful for a laugh sometimes, but this is just going too far.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Big news today.

Andrew Little resigned as Labour Party leader and was replaced with Jacinda Ardern. Her deputy will be Kelvin Davis.

[Lachi]

Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic

What do you think, now that it's actually happened?

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Labour up big in two recent polls. Greens are slumping as Turei resigns. National stable and NZFirst down slightly.

[Lachi]

But being serious,

I still think the Nationals are still in a better position to form government, unless NZ First goes with Labour+Greens, which is highly unlikely, and would surprise me if they decided to form with them.

However, if Labour keeps climbing, and takes mostly from the Nationals, rather than the Greens, then I could see the potential for Ardern to become PM, with Green support.

NZ First WILL be the kingmaker, however.

[Phony Moderate]

Had a feeling that English would be vulnerable if the left just got its act together.

Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic

What do you think, now that it's actually happened?

I was thinking "Helen Clark with charisma" rather than of Trudeau.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

But being serious,

I still think the Nationals are still in a better position to form government, unless NZ First goes with Labour+Greens, which is highly unlikely, and would surprise me if they decided to form with them.

However, if Labour keeps climbing, and takes mostly from the Nationals, rather than the Greens, then I could see the potential for Ardern to become PM, with Green support.

NZ First WILL be the kingmaker, however.

Yeah, it's not a complete game change, but gaining 10% is no small feat. If they can get the Māori Party to join in, that would be another two seats or so. I'd still lean towards a National government at this point in time. Coalition between National and WINston wouldn't be shocking and is probably what we'd get if the election was today.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Poll shows Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) losing in Ohariu, the party's only seat.

[Lachi]

Poll shows Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) losing in Ohariu, the party's only seat.

If he is "Dunne", then that just strengthens NZ First's position of king maker.
(sorry for the absolutely horrible pun)

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Poll shows Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) losing in Ohariu, the party's only seat.

If he is "Dunne", then that just strengthens NZ First's position of king maker.
(sorry for the absolutely horrible pun)

Haha! ACT can probably hold on to Epsom, but the Māori Party could be questionable. Their alliance with Mana makes me think that they're looking more towards the left.

NZ First is right where WINston wants to be. It will be interesting to see if the Greens drop any further.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

NZ First is right where WINston wants to be. It will be interesting to see if the Greens drop any further.

And drop they did.

National 44%
Labour 37%
NZFirst 10%
Greens 4%
Māori 2%
Opportunities 2%

Preferred PM
Bill English 30%
Jacinda Ardern 30%
Winston Peters 7%

Bad news for the Greens. They may get a dead cat bounce and get back above 5%, but they're not in a good way right now.

Edit: This poll was conducted from August 12 to 16 by ONE News and Colmar Brunton.

[mileslunn]

NZ First is right where WINston wants to be. It will be interesting to see if the Greens drop any further.

And drop they did.

National 44%
Labour 37%
NZFirst 10%
Greens 4%
Māori 2%
Opportunities 2%

Preferred PM
Bill English 30%
Jacinda Ardern 30%
Winston Peters 7%

Bad news for the Greens. They may get a dead cat bounce and get back above 5%, but they're not in a good way right now.

If they continue to stay below 5%, could some Labour vote strategically for them so as to increase the chances of Labour forming government since if the Greens get shut out, Labour has to rely on New Zealand First and considering ideological differences as well as possibly not having enough seats, not sure that would work.  While you cannot say anything for sure, I think a good night for Labour would be to form a strong opposition and then in 2020 win.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Arguably, it would be easier to form a two party "coalition" between Labour and NZ First, then one that requires the Greens as well.

Remember that labour (and the greens as well, for that matter) are running on anti-immigration message this time round, and that NZ First aren't directly comparable to similar populist right groups in Europe. They aren't too far apart, is all I'm saying (I.e. Them working together is not out of the realm of possibility, which would be very different in almost any European context, Greece aside).