New Zealand Election 2017

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

My results

I would vote Green in hopes of a Labour/Green coalition.

My highest match was TOP, with 74%, then Labour at 71%, with the Greens in 3rd at 68%. Interesting that there isn't a super close match for me.

[parochial boy]

Greens - 80%
TOP - 77%
Maori party - 69%
Mana - 69%
Legalise Cannabis - 68%
Labour - 66%
NZ First - 58%
United Future - 55%
National - 53%
Conservative - 39%
ACT - 37%

I thought TOP were a broadly centrist party? A bit surprised about that

[IceAgeComing]

TOP give me the Lib Dem sort of vibes - as in the sort of party that tries to be everything to everyone.

I got:

77% Greens
71% Labour
71% TOP
64% Maori Party
58% NZ First ()
53% Legalise Cannabis Party
51% Mana Party
49% United Future
47% National Party
43% ACT
34% Conservative Party
31% Ban 1080 Party

NZ First seem to stick out a bit but I think that I mentally link them with the likes of UKIP when they are a very different party.  Other than that, not overly surprising...

[BigSkyBob]

I don't see anything that could have caused this seemingly random bounce for the Nationals.

Regression to the mean after what was an extraordinary bounce to Labour.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

TOP 52%
Labour 49%
Green 42%
Moari 41%
ACT, National, United Future 40%
Legalise Cannabis 37%
Mana 36%
Conservative 33%
NZ First 30%
Ban 1080 party 26%

[MaxQue]

Yeah, I wonder is TOP payed to have results lean towards them.

TOP 75%
Green 73%
Maori 70%
Mana 69%
Labour 66%
Legalise 65%
United Future 56%
NZF 53%
National, ACT 51%
Ban 1080 47%
Conservative 39%

[mileslunn]

Colmar Brunton is coming out with a poll this evening so either it will confirm or disprove the recent Newshub poll showing National pulling ahead.

[mileslunn]

Looks like the newshub poll might be a rogue poll as Colmar Brunton has very different numbers.

They have

Labour 44
National 40
Green 7
NZ First 6
TOP 2

Best PM

Ardern 34
English 32

It will be interesting to have a third poll as I've found when polls disagree best to get another one as usually if two point in one direction and another one way the one that is off is probably wrong.  Anyways still close enough that National is not out of it and notwithstanding the Newshub poll Labour still is very much in the game and in fact a progressive one of Labour-Green may be a real possibility although far from certain. 

I was wondering what turnout is amongst millennials as my understanding is much like the last British election there is a big age gap with National well ahead amongst seniors but Labour well ahead amongst millennials.  Her move towards free tuition could help as that seemed to be what helped Corbyn do better than expected.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Roy Morgan should supposedly come soon. Very glad to see the Greens at 7%. 51% overall is very good, given that there will be some wasted party votes. I'm guessing 5% or so. Likely TOP's 2% or so, Mana's 0.5%, whatever bits UF gets, plus random single issue parties.

[mileslunn]

Roy Morgan should supposedly come soon. Very glad to see the Greens at 7%. 51% overall is very good, given that there will be some wasted party votes. I'm guessing 5% or so. Likely TOP's 2% or so, Mana's 0.5%, whatever bits UF gets, plus random single issue parties.

Later today or tomorrow?  Interesting to see which side it goes with or does fall in between the two.  The one area the two polls were consistent on was best PM as both showed the two very close and both in the low 30s.  Not sure about New Zealand, but I know at least here in Canada usually best PM tends to tilt towards the incumbent and anytime the incumbent falls behind they are in big trouble.  In 2015, Trudeau was only two points ahead of Harper on best PM yet won quite handidly mind you most who said Mulcair probably had Trudeau as their second choice.  I suspect most Greens prefer Ardern over English, but New Zealand First could go either way although since they are strongest amongst seniors I would tend to think more favour English over Ardern.

[Lachi]

If the Roy Morgan poll shows similar numbers to Colmar Brunton, I think that it's become very likely that Ardern will be the next PM.

I think that Roy Morgan will release sometime early afternoon tomorrow.

[FrancoAgo]

my result
green 84%
alct 81%
labour 80%
maori 78%
mana 77%
NZF 72%
TOP 71%
UF 66%
Ban 1080 63%
ACT 56%
National 52%
Conservative 44%

[136or142]

I knew I wasn't impressed with any of the parties all that much:

I side with
Green Party 59%
The Opportunities Party 57%
Labour 56%
Maori 51%
ACT 50%
Legalize Cannabis 49%
Mana: 49%
New Zealand First: 44%
United Future: 39%
National Party: 39%
Conservative Party 31%

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hahaha that test was terrible and I couldn't answer half the questions because I would need more details about how things work in New Zealand before answering

Anyhoo...

TOP - 60% (looool)
Green - 59%
Labour - 57%
Maori - 49%
Mana - 46%
National - 46%
ACT - 45% (45 too high, the test is bad, see)
Legalise Cannabis - 44%
United Future - 42% (are they even running now?)
New Zealand First - 37%
Conservative Party - 32% (better)

[mileslunn]

If the Roy Morgan poll shows similar numbers to Colmar Brunton, I think that it's become very likely that Ardern will be the next PM.

I think that Roy Morgan will release sometime early afternoon tomorrow.

Do you know what time they are supposed to come out with the poll?  It will be interesting to compare.  At this point I think the real thing is can Labour + Greens get a majority which means Ardern is next PM or do both parties have to rely on NZ First who could go to either side and not necessarily either which party gets most votes.

[Kamala]

My ISideWith:

67% Greens
66% TOP
62% Labour
60% Māori
54% Mana
53% ALCP
52% NZ First
50% Nats
50% ACT
47% United Future
40% Conservative

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is everyone getting higher scores for NZ First than me?

[mvd10]

Why is everyone getting higher scores for NZ First than me?

Because you're better than everyone else?

[Lachi]

Roy Morgan still have not released their poll yet, and they way it's going, it doesn't seem like it will be released at all this week.

Also, the Roy Morgan site is currently down.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is everyone getting higher scores for NZ First than me?

Because you're better than everyone else?

Uh, I never implied that?

[Lachi]

Roy morgan has FINALLY released, annnnd, it's looking like a toss up according to them.

National 40.0
Labour 39.5
Green 9.0
NZ First 6.0
Māori 2.0
ACT 0.5
Conservative 0.5 (Why are they getting polled???)
Other 2.5

Link:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/roy.morgan.research?publish=yes#!/vizhome/NewZealandPrimaryVote2002-2017/NZVotingIntention

[Lachi]

Averaging out the 2 polls gives us

Labour 41.5
National 40
Green 8
NZ First 6
Maori 2 (only have one poll to go off)
TOP 2 (One poll)

[Polkergeist]

What are the odds of Winston Peters holding Northland?

[Lachi]

What are the odds of Winston Peters holding Northland?

Very unlikely, imo.

Also, this is what the Colmar Burton poll looks like when converted into seats:

[Polkergeist]

Well with both Greens and NZF flirting with 5 % at some point this campaign, its not out of realm of possibilities that both miss out on seats.

Either of the majors could win a majority too...