New Zealand Election 2017

[IceAgeComing]

I don't think that really works as a comparison - the SPD polls now are basically the same as they were right before Schultz took over as Chancellor candidate while Ahern has clearly boosted the Labour numbers by at least 10 points from what it was under Little.  I mean before she became leader it looked like this would be an incredibly boring election with the question being whether the Nationals could get a majority this time; with no real prospect of Labour winning; while now even with these polls you have an opportunity that Labour could put something together; may it be something that needs New Zealand First or not.

[Lachi]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

It has been 7 weeks since Ardern became leader, maybe the new leader poll bounce is wearing off.

Maybe, but if that was happening, your party wouldn't lose 6 points in one polling period, it would be sliding off a little bit slower, don't you think?

[mileslunn]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

It has been 7 weeks since Ardern became leader, maybe the new leader poll bounce is wearing off.

Maybe, but if that was happening, your party wouldn't lose 6 points in one polling period, it would be sliding off a little bit slower, don't you think?

If the poll is correct which is a big if, Labour probably didn't actually lose anything, rather the undecided voters from previous polls broke heavily in favour of National.  Lets remember most polls exclude those who are undecided so if that number goes down and they break heavily in favour of one party, things like that can happen.  I guess we will have to see what the remaining polls say and the results.  At this point I think there is a strong probability that National will come in first in votes but unless they win a majority or get close enough they can rely on ACT we probably won't know until October 12th who forms government or not.

[mileslunn]

Newshub Poll coming out at 6 PM Auckland time.  My guess is National will be in the lead but will it be a big lead or a small one.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Newshub Poll coming out at 6 PM Auckland time.  My guess is National will be in the lead but will it be a big lead or a small one.

So, 11 PM for us again. I'm guessing like a 5% lead for National. Greens+Labour will be ahead of National though.

[Lachi]

NEWSHUB POLL:
NAT 45.8
LAB 37.3
NZF 7.1
GRN 7.1
SEAT PROJECTION:
NAT 56
LAB 45
NZF 9
GRN 9
MA 2
ACT 1

[mileslunn]

Based on the two final polls being similar enough, I will make the following two predictions.

1.  National wins the popular vote
2.  New Zealand First is the kingmaker so we won't know whether Bill English will continue as PM or Jacinda Ardern becomes PM until October 12th.

[Pericles]

The final poll of the election. After this chaotic and unpredictable campaign, it has perhaps the most predictable outcome-National in the lead but Winston Peters decides.



The Stuff Poll of Polls for the entirety of its existence, from mid-2008 to present. Notice the recent Labour surge.


I graphed the Colmar Brunton and Newshub/Reid Research polling for this election, and added trendlines for the National Party lead. The straight line is the 5% threshold.

[IceAgeComing]

Your links are broken, pal - might help to upload them somewhere where people don't need to login somewhere else to see them.

[Leftbehind]

I don't think that really works as a comparison - the SPD polls now are basically the same as they were right before Schultz took over as Chancellor candidate while Ahern has clearly boosted the Labour numbers by at least 10 points from what it was under Little. 

Fair point - forgot just how sh*te Labour were doing pre-Ahern.

[Polkergeist]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

It has been 7 weeks since Ardern became leader, maybe the new leader poll bounce is wearing off.

Maybe, but if that was happening, your party wouldn't lose 6 points in one polling period, it would be sliding off a little bit slower, don't you think?

The previous poll could have been a labour friendly sample and the current poll a National friendly sample the underlying shift could be less than 6 points.

But even with the similar NewsHub poll tonight I would not rule out a Labour vote in the 40s. The polls have been bouncing around and we don't have too many data points

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

NEWSHUB POLL:
NAT 45.8
LAB 37.3
NZF 7.1
GRN 7.1
SEAT PROJECTION:
NAT 56
LAB 45
NZF 9
GRN 9
MA 2
ACT 1

Changes from the previous Newshub poll:
Nat -1.5%
Lab -0.5%
NZF +1.1%
Green +2.2%

[parochial boy]

Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

I'm pretty sure I heard that Colmar Brunton changed their weighting with their last poll.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

This is pretty obviously what is going on (it's done for obvious commercial reasons o/c). They may even be right to (and such was the suddenness of the shift in this case from landslide re-election to potential defeat that maybe this call is sounder than always), but...

[Lachi]

Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

This could very well be possible. We'll all see if this is happening when the results come in.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Prediction:

National 42% 52 seats
Labour 39% 49 seats
Greens 7% 9 seats
NZ First 5.8% 7 seats
Māori 1.9% 2 seats (2 electorates)
TOP 1.8% 0 seats
ACT 0.7% 1 seat
Mana 0.3% 0 seats
Random BS (includes UF) 1.5% 0 seats
120 seats

[mileslunn]

My prediction is as follows, don't know the seats so someone else might be able to give what they would be, but below is the percentages I predict

National Party 45%
Labour Party 38%
Green Party 6%
New Zealand First 6%

While cannot speak on the rest, but I am guessing 2 Maori seats and one ACT.

[Lachi]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2017/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504338&objectid=11925334

Everyone they asked were national-leaning, especially Hosking, who is known to be massively bias in favour of them, even while on air, and has been highly criticized over the issue. But hey, right-leaning Herald is gonna ask right-leaning people.

[Polkergeist]

The result of the advance votes at the 2014 election had very little difference to the overall result.

With a much larger advance vote this time we should see these small differences disappear....

Or should we? 

This time around we are seeing a much more energised left-of-centre voters.

Is it possible that the advance votes could lean to the left by a few points this time compared to the overall result?

[Lachi]

The result of the advance votes at the 2014 election had very little difference to the overall result.

With a much larger advance vote this time we should see these small differences disappear....

Or should we? 

This time around we are seeing a much more energised left-of-centre voters.

Is it possible that the advance votes could lean to the left by a few points this time compared to the overall result?

This could happen, and it's one of the reasons why I won't be relying too much on the final election day vote total, especially seeing how close it could be.

[Polkergeist]

The result of the advance votes at the 2014 election had very little difference to the overall result.

With a much larger advance vote this time we should see these small differences disappear....

Or should we? 

This time around we are seeing a much more energised left-of-centre voters.

Is it possible that the advance votes could lean to the left by a few points this time compared to the overall result?

This could happen, and it's one of the reasons why I won't be relying too much on the final election day vote total, especially seeing how close it could be.

Yes, the special/overseas votes can always shift one seat from right to left. Have they ever moved more than 1?

[Tender Branson]

My NZ prediction:

40.3% National Party (51 seats)
39.1% Labour Party (48 seats)
  8.1% Greens (10 seats)
  7.7% NZ First (9 seats)
  4.8% Others (2 seats)

Turnout: 77.2%

[Double Carpet]

Does anyone have a live TV stream for NZ that works?

Thanks!

[MAINEiac4434]

I think part of Labour's "collapse" is people who were saying they were voting to Labour are now convinced that they'll be close enough that they just need the Greens and/or Maori to form a government, and are now backing one of those two parties.