New Zealand Election 2017

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Happening in less than a year, and likely to deliver an expected result. John Key has stepped down as Prime Minister and Leader of the Nationals, and Bill English, endorsed by Key as the next leader and therefore PM before the 2017 election.

The Nationals are averaging around 47%, Labour 28%, the Greens 11%, and NZ First 9%. This will likely change when English officially becomes Leader and PM.

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Will the National Party gain or lose ground with Keys gone?

Oh, there's no question that Key was one of the most popular PMs we've ever had, and he still is. This was the perfect political resignation - he left about 50% of the country begging for more.

Bill English is much less charismatic and and a lot less popular. He led the Nats before, and led them into the disastrous 2002 election. Fair enough, most of that failure was not his fault, and fair enough, he's been the backroom mastermind of the Key project, but that points to serious issues with the Nats that they'd give him another shot when there are loads of MPs who are younger, fresher and more electable. I have no doubt that English's National Party will attract fewer voters than Key's did.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Labour, much as it pains me to say it so few days after our barnstorming success in Roskill, is still struggling in the wilderness, and is still having to confront the fact that a lot of voters are put off by our putative coalition partners. If we win, we win with Green and NZ First support. That doesn't sound like a three-term Government to me.

Andrew Little really isn't three-term Prime Minister material either. There is generally a tendency to go with the bigger personality in NZ politics, but in this election neither candidate will have that going for them. Little might have a chance because of that.

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why would anyone ever

Especially what seem otherwise like lefty-environmentalists? Although, does "introduction of a capital gains tax" mean capital gains aren't taxed currently in New Zealand, or do they want a lower rate the way the US and some other countries have as opposed to taxing them at the same rate as earned income?

We don't currently have a CGT, which is part of why we have a housing bubble in Auckland.

The Upper House is not an idea that has common currency, but it makes a lot of sense, for two reasons:
1) We only have 120-ish MPs, and around a quarter of them are Ministers, which means that they are forced to support any Cabinet decision in Caucus and in the House. Which means that Caucus always votes with the Cabinet. Which means that the law is passed without any chance of defeat at any point, even if it is only supported by a majority of the Cabinet and nobody else. If we had an Upper House, it could send bills back for review.
2) The ability of MPs and their staff, especially in Opposition, to write good bills is extremely limited, partly due to lack of funding (which would be increased with an Upper House) and partly due to lack of time to study all bills, because again, we only have 120-ish MPs. The Upper House would double the manpower available to research and formulate policy, and also slow the legislative process down so that hasty, badly-written bills (of which we have rather a lot) can be withdrawn or amended in response to negative feedback from the public.

It's not the only solution to these problems, but if you had much experience of the Beehive, you'd be desperate for anything.

Why not just increase the number of seats in parliament? Seems more effective than creating an entirely new body.

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He's obviously going to go with Labour.

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General discussion thread is up.