New Zealand Election 2017

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Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic

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Sad news as Winston Peters announces he will kill himself in the ultimate political stunt:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11766014

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Harawira propping up a National government would be pretty hilarious.

Though (hopefully) both of them getting burned would be even better tbh.

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Arguably, it would be easier to form a two party "coalition" between Labour and NZ First, then one that requires the Greens as well.

Remember that labour (and the greens as well, for that matter) are running on anti-immigration message this time round, and that NZ First aren't directly comparable to similar populist right groups in Europe. They aren't too far apart, is all I'm saying (I.e. Them working together is not out of the realm of possibility, which would be very different in almost any European context, Greece aside).

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A) Kurz is not good looking. And to be honest, the same goes for most politicians labelled as attractive - if a young person of average attractiveness spends all day around middle-aged career politicians they tend to look "attractive" by comparison, even if it's merely because they have a full head of hair or whatever.

B) I think people like something new in politicians.. Trudeau, Sanders and Corbyn don't look or sound like your typical politicians, for different reasons; and neither does Adern (her farm girl aesthetic is very different from what most female politicians, even those of a similar age, typically go for; which may be a slightly calculated move.

(Atlas Forum: come for the politics and maps, stay for bitching about foreign politicians hotness levels)

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It's widely expected that when the government closes all the Treaty of Watangi settlements, the Maoiri seats will be phased out.

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There really should be some mechanism by which sub threshold parties can have their wasted votes redistributed to bigger parties. (Unless it leads to some sort of Australian microparty vote farming situation)

That is, if you accept the logic behind thresholds to begin with, which I personally don't.

Also are there no Christian/Conservative parties running anymore? Man, that wing really is unlucky.

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NZ first holds an electorate seat, so they will be able to still claim list seats even if they slip below threshold.

The Greens really should have made that part of their initial deal with labour - to be granted a constituency somewhere so they also wouldn't have to worry about the threshold.

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Labour should put Jacinda Ahern in charge, capture that Trudeaumagic

Give this genius a medal!

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Maori Party wiped out.

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All of Winston's demands:

http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/election/2017/10/the-comprehensive-list-of-winston-peters-bottom-lines.html

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On what issues would NZ First choose to side with Labour over National?

Cuts to immigration, banning/restricting foreign buyers of land/farms/housing, maintaining the retirement age at 65, manned re-entry of Pike River Mine (a coal mine that had a fatal methane explosion; the families of the dead deeply want to re-enter to retrieve bodies and this has been a big cause for Peters - a policy at odds with the Nats who want to permanently close it), raising the minimum wage and abolishing youth rates and abolishing coat-tails and lowering the election threshold are the major election pledges of First that would be easier done under Labour; some of those would deeply irritate the Nats, but at the end of the day they want to maintain power.

 Labour have less obvious landmines in coalition building, although that's partially obscured by the fact Peters' campaign was very anti-government in nature. Peters dislike of the Greens may present a crucial sticking point. Labour/Greens wanted to introduce water charges for farmers, which will be nixed by NZ First. NZ First have made a big deal of getting rid of the Maori seats, something Labour will not agree to quickly, especially following their sweep.

Remember that Peters is fundamentally a prickly old weirdo, and he gets more prickly, old and weird every day. A lot of the decisions he makes will be based on his eccentric and odd grab-bag of pet issues, some of which are cartoonishly populist, some amusingly  off-beat (e.g.  "Establish a Crown Company to develop 'ecoFur' as the world's only ecologically friendly fur label to support a value-adding New Zealand fur industry (wild possums, stoats and ferrets)

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My theory is that the Nats are holding back cause they think a three party coalition will be a trap for Labour.

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Nah, Kiwis are fine with the electoral system, much to the irritation of the establishment. And a party like NZF will always have a niche, even if it isn't NZF in particular. Heck, one could draw comparisons with the pre-MMP era Social Credit party, which was at some times very popular (although not enough to actually make it into parliament)

One of the weird things about MMP is although people often scaremonger about a huge number of minor parties and nutcases proliferating, New Zealand's party system has stayed relatively, well not stable exactly, but very much rooted in the traditional system. Especially now all the oddballs like the Maori Party have gone or been rendered as harmless puppets (i.e. the Greens making the steps into becoming a permanent annex of Labour and ACT being kept alive at the whims of National), you now have a good old "two and a half party" system.

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I don't like NZF, but in the grand scheme of things they are relatively benign all things considered. In fact, I would say that National has been far nastier in its history (e.g. Muldoon's raids on Pacific Island workers and the Don Brash open appeal to Pakeha grievances). Even this election cycle, their basic platform was mainly about immigration from a numerical/economic point of view rather than potentially more toxic ideas about "values" that you hear all over the place in Europe (and more to the point, it was remarkably similar to what Labour and Greens were saying, so they can't complain too much).