New Zealand Election 2017

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Ex-Labour Leader David Shearer is resigning from Parliament to head up the UN process in South Sudan - Murray McCully leaked this to the entire National Party before most Labour people knew, by the way.

This means that a by-election before the next election is possible - we won't know until Bill English is PM. The alternative is a general election within the next six months or so.

In the red corner, Jacinda Ardern is basically nailed-on to replace Shearer in his Mount Albert electorate, barring upsets.

And here's a link: http://www.nzherald.co.nz//nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11762554

I could see them calling an early election. 6 months should be enough for English or whomever. Nice to hear that Ardern is likely to get a seat of her own.

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http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/323564/new-zealand-to-vote-in-general-election-on-23-september

The General Election will be on September 23, 2017.

As a redditor noted, the All Blacks (NZ's national rugby team) do not play that weekend.

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http://www.nzherald.co.nz//opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11791809

http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/01/24/tdb-summer-election-special-understanding-maori-party-mana-movement-in-2017/

Apparently Mana and the Māori Party are getting along better. This could be interesting in September.

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Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?

I haven't seen any that include Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party, which could be a big player (5% would shake things up quite a bit). The last polls I've seen still have the National Party at 45-50%. Wikipedia only has one poll from after Key's resignation and I haven't found any others online.

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Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?

I haven't seen any that include Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party, which could be a big player (5% would shake things up quite a bit). The last polls I've seen still have the National Party at 45-50%. Wikipedia only has one poll from after Key's resignation and I haven't found any others online.

It won't be a big player. If Gareth's lucky, he'll equal the Internet Mana score in 2014.

That's definitely plausible. Random polarizing rich person trying to get into politics. He doesn't seem quite as bad as KDC, but he doesn't have other politicians (Harawira and Harre) backing him.

Which side do you expect to be more affected?

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I guess the Nationals are going to remain in power for the next 30 years or something?

I'm guessing poll numbers will change as people start to pay more attention to the news/election. This will be English's first election as PM (second as party leader; see 2002). Key was quite popular, but I'm not sure if English will be as popular. NZ First could be on the rise. We need more data. As I said, I've hardly seen any polling from the last few months. Labour has been pretty weak. If Little loses in September, I think Ardern could be the next leader.

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Mana and Māori will be working together, details to be announced.

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Harawira propping up a National government would be pretty hilarious.

Though (hopefully) both of them getting burned would be even better tbh.

He did support them from 2008-2011. I'd like to see him back. He's interesting to watch, just like WINston is. Can't say I'd want either of them in power though.

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Mana will stand Harawira in Te Tai Tokerau and Māori will stand candidates in the other 6 Māori seats. Both will compete for the party vote. http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/89581527/hone-harawira-gets-clear-te-tai-tokerau-run-for-mana-not-running-against-maori-party-in-other-seats and http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/324894/maori-and-mana-parties-sign-deal-to-work-together among other articles.

Honestly, this seems like a bum deal for Mana. Yes, they'll likely win a seat, but they're locked out of any other Māori seats and I don't see them winning in any general electorate seats. Assuming Harawira wins, they'll need something like 1.5% of the party vote to get a second seat (assuming my understanding is correct). Mana got 1.08% in 2011 and 1.42% in 2014.

If Māori can pull off more electorate wins, we could see a number of overhang seats.

Edit: If Internet Mana had won Te Tai Tokerau in 2014, IM would have gotten 2 seats.

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http://www.nzherald.co.nz//nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11851294

A number of new(ish) microparties are popping up for this year's election.

Expats Party - Advocates for NZer's rights abroad
NZ People's Party - Pro-immigrant
The Opportunities Party - Gareth Morgan's play toy
Seniors Party - Seems obvious
Advance New Zealand - See Below

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Let's see if these guys go anywhere. I doubt they will.

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This opinion piece tries to make comparisons between NZ and pretty much every European country that isn't Austria.

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The Greens updated their list. Most notably, Chloe Swarbrick is in the 9th spot and is a near lock to become an MP following the election.

Peters claims "Fake Polls" and says he'll get 20% haha, fat chance WINston.

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Haven't been able to find much lately. Google is stupid and is only giving me stuff about the UK election whenever I search for "New Zealand Election." I did find this though:
If anyone wants to read a rant by Hone Harawira, enjoy.

A One News/Colmar Brunton poll from late May has the following results:

National 49
Labour 30
Green 9
NZ First 9
Māori 1
ACT 1
TOP 1
United Future 0
Mana 0
Conservative 0

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Labour down big, Greens and NZ First up in Newshub/Reid poll.

National: 47.4% (-0.3)

Labour: 26.4% (-4.2)

Greens: 12.5% (+1.3%)

NZ First: 9.4% (+1.8%)

ACT: 0.9% (+0.5%)

Opportunities: 0.8% (NC)

Conservatives: 0.8% (+0.4%)

Māori: 0.7% (NC)

United Future: 0.3% (-0.1%)

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/15-06-2017/gloomy-news-for-labour-in-latest-newshub-poll-and-shane-jones-drops-hint-about-future/

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Boy New Zealand seems to have by the most BORING politics in the English speaking world - no change from the last election, so swing to the left like we have seen in the UK or Australia or BC, no rise of rightwing populism...what happened? NZ used to have lots of high drama politically

WINston has been around for a while, so it isn't as dramatic of a rise for NZ First. It's not like they're a new party or one that has never gotten more than a seat or two in the past.

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Scandal time!

Prime Minister Bill English is facing awkward questions about how he handled a lawmaker who is accused of making secret recordings and then lying about what he did.

Todd Barclay recorded conversations that he was not privy to and then paid the person whose privacy was invaded a larger than usual sum.

Also, Barclay will not stand in this fall's election.

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Anyone from NZ have a more informed perspective?

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Hone Harawira is calling for the execution of Chinese meth dealers.

Kelvin Davis trolled him pretty hard though:

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Typical bluster from Harawira. I had liked him having around because he could be useful for a laugh sometimes, but this is just going too far.

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Big news today.

Andrew Little resigned as Labour Party leader and was replaced with Jacinda Ardern. Her deputy will be Kelvin Davis.

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Labour up big in two recent polls. Greens are slumping as Turei resigns. National stable and NZFirst down slightly.

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But being serious,

I still think the Nationals are still in a better position to form government, unless NZ First goes with Labour+Greens, which is highly unlikely, and would surprise me if they decided to form with them.

However, if Labour keeps climbing, and takes mostly from the Nationals, rather than the Greens, then I could see the potential for Ardern to become PM, with Green support.

NZ First WILL be the kingmaker, however.

Yeah, it's not a complete game change, but gaining 10% is no small feat. If they can get the Māori Party to join in, that would be another two seats or so. I'd still lean towards a National government at this point in time. Coalition between National and WINston wouldn't be shocking and is probably what we'd get if the election was today.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Poll shows Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) losing in Ohariu, the party's only seat.

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Poll shows Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) losing in Ohariu, the party's only seat.

If he is "Dunne", then that just strengthens NZ First's position of king maker.
(sorry for the absolutely horrible pun)

Haha! ACT can probably hold on to Epsom, but the Māori Party could be questionable. Their alliance with Mana makes me think that they're looking more towards the left.

NZ First is right where WINston wants to be. It will be interesting to see if the Greens drop any further.

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NZ First is right where WINston wants to be. It will be interesting to see if the Greens drop any further.

And drop they did.

National 44%
Labour 37%
NZFirst 10%
Greens 4%
Māori 2%
Opportunities 2%

Preferred PM
Bill English 30%
Jacinda Ardern 30%
Winston Peters 7%

Bad news for the Greens. They may get a dead cat bounce and get back above 5%, but they're not in a good way right now.

Edit: This poll was conducted from August 12 to 16 by ONE News and Colmar Brunton.

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Arguably, it would be easier to form a two party "coalition" between Labour and NZ First, then one that requires the Greens as well.

Remember that labour (and the greens as well, for that matter) are running on anti-immigration message this time round, and that NZ First aren't directly comparable to similar populist right groups in Europe. They aren't too far apart, is all I'm saying (I.e. Them working together is not out of the realm of possibility, which would be very different in almost any European context, Greece aside).

NZ First was in coalition with Labour from 2005 to 2008 and with the Nationals from 1996 to 1998. Neither should really be out of the question at this point.

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B) I think people like something new in politicians.. Trudeau, Sanders and Corbyn don't look or sound like your typical politicians, for different reasons; and neither does Adern (her farm girl aesthetic is very different from what most female politicians, even those of a similar age, typically go for; which may be a slightly calculated move.

I've been reading that Labour is trying to get back at some rural voters. Having Ardern run as something of a farm girl would help with that.

(Atlas Forum: come for the politics and maps, stay for bitching about foreign politicians hotness levels)

Amen.

On another issue, I heard Bill English unlike John Key plans to raise the retirement age to 67 starting in 2037 and Winston Peters has said that would be a red line in forming a coalition that the retirement age remain at 65, so does that improve Labour's chances or do you think National would be willing to drop this to please New Zealand First as this wouldn't take effect for many years anyways.

It could help Labour. One of WINston's biggest demographics is old people. Granted, a lot of them will be dead in 20 years, but I'd say that National would have to be flexible on that if they wanted NZ First's support.

In 2014, Labour supported raising the retirement age.

However, as of March of this year, they backed away from that and are supporting keeping the age at 65.