New Zealand Election 2017

[Mazda]

If. There's a few mutters of a contested caucus - it's the last chance for a few people. But barring a Donald Trump event from within the Nat caucus, English will be PM.

The last possible date for the election is 18 November, but an early election is expected - partly to minimise the 'unelected PM' stage, and partly because at least two Electorate MPs are expected in the Bubble to leave Parliament by some means or other over the coming months, and nobody wants to fight a by-election so close to the GE.

[Mazda]

Will the National Party gain or lose ground with Keys gone?

Oh, there's no question that Key was one of the most popular PMs we've ever had, and he still is. This was the perfect political resignation - he left about 50% of the country begging for more.

Bill English is much less charismatic and and a lot less popular. He led the Nats before, and led them into the disastrous 2002 election. Fair enough, most of that failure was not his fault, and fair enough, he's been the backroom mastermind of the Key project, but that points to serious issues with the Nats that they'd give him another shot when there are loads of MPs who are younger, fresher and more electable. I have no doubt that English's National Party will attract fewer voters than Key's did.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Labour, much as it pains me to say it so few days after our barnstorming success in Roskill, is still struggling in the wilderness, and is still having to confront the fact that a lot of voters are put off by our putative coalition partners. If we win, we win with Green and NZ First support. That doesn't sound like a three-term Government to me.

[Mazda]

Ex-Labour Leader David Shearer is resigning from Parliament to head up the UN process in South Sudan - Murray McCully leaked this to the entire National Party before most Labour people knew, by the way.

This means that a by-election before the next election is possible - we won't know until Bill English is PM. The alternative is a general election within the next six months or so.

In the red corner, Jacinda Ardern is basically nailed-on to replace Shearer in his Mount Albert electorate, barring upsets.

[Mazda]

Any recent polls on how things look in the "post-Key" landscape?

I haven't seen any that include Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party, which could be a big player (5% would shake things up quite a bit). The last polls I've seen still have the National Party at 45-50%. Wikipedia only has one poll from after Key's resignation and I haven't found any others online.

It won't be a big player. If Gareth's lucky, he'll equal the Internet Mana score in 2014.

[Mazda]

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why would anyone ever

Especially what seem otherwise like lefty-environmentalists? Although, does "introduction of a capital gains tax" mean capital gains aren't taxed currently in New Zealand, or do they want a lower rate the way the US and some other countries have as opposed to taxing them at the same rate as earned income?

We don't currently have a CGT, which is part of why we have a housing bubble in Auckland.

The Upper House is not an idea that has common currency, but it makes a lot of sense, for two reasons:
1) We only have 120-ish MPs, and around a quarter of them are Ministers, which means that they are forced to support any Cabinet decision in Caucus and in the House. Which means that Caucus always votes with the Cabinet. Which means that the law is passed without any chance of defeat at any point, even if it is only supported by a majority of the Cabinet and nobody else. If we had an Upper House, it could send bills back for review.
2) The ability of MPs and their staff, especially in Opposition, to write good bills is extremely limited, partly due to lack of funding (which would be increased with an Upper House) and partly due to lack of time to study all bills, because again, we only have 120-ish MPs. The Upper House would double the manpower available to research and formulate policy, and also slow the legislative process down so that hasty, badly-written bills (of which we have rather a lot) can be withdrawn or amended in response to negative feedback from the public.

It's not the only solution to these problems, but if you had much experience of the Beehive, you'd be desperate for anything.

[Mazda]

In terms of chances, what do you think the odds are for each.  I think in terms of popular vote it is truly a toss up.  I would give a slight advantage to Labour in forming government since if Labour + Greens get the majority they will definitely form government but if NZ First is the kingmaker I feel they could go either way.

My new predictions Sept. 15, 2017

Labour 42% 52 Seats
National 38.5% 48 Seats
NZ First 7.25% 9 Seats
Green 6.25% 7 Seats
Māori 2% 2 Seats
TOP 1.8% 0 Seats
ACT 0.7% 1 Seat
Mana 0.3% 0 Seats
United Future 0.05% 0 Seats
Others 1.15% 0 Seats

I narrowed Labour's lead by 0.5% from my last predictions from 8 days ago, Sept. 7, 2017. Labour would have to form a coalition with the Greens and Māori to form the next government. WINston's position as kingmaker is quite vulnerable, I'd say. NZ First has been declining in the polls (I have them down 1.75% from 8 days ago. WINston is also rather toxic and many potential coalition partners would reject working with him. Basically, NZ First needs to be strong enough to be the lone party needed for either a National or Labour government. 52+7+2 gives Labour+Greens+Māori a narrow lead in Parliament. 52+9 Labour+NZ First would give the same number, but I don't think that would be Jacinda's preference. At this point, I don't see National being able to form a coalition. Māori seems to be leaning towards Labour, United Future is toast, and ACT is only 1 seat versus NZFirst's 9. I wouldn't be shocked if this is ACT's last winning election.

Is Northland actually Winston Peter's best shot as a seat? My impression that NZ First's heartland was always Tauranga/Bay of Plenty thanks to the combination of wealthy retirees + Peter's friendly Maori. Winning Northland in a by election is all well and good, but as Mark Reckless would testify, a protest vote in a by election is a very different thing to the actual general election.

I know that Tauranga was his base back in the day. He seems to be trying to appeal to the "Make New Zealand Great Again" crowd. From what I've read, Northland in general (not just the electorate) has fallen on hard times over the last decade. WINston wants to build NZ's next main port up there as a means to revitalize the area.

I'd crack up if NZ First managed to hold on by winning an electorate that wasn't Peters's Northland seat. Without polling, it's hard to really say how he's doing up there though.
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Two things.

One: ACT tends to do well when National is demoralized and when National do badly. Much as the Greens do well when Labour are sh**t. If your natural party is in opposition, you tend to radicalise. So ACT may return in a reasonably big way in 2020, simply because there are no other plausible alternatives to National for right-wing voters, especially if NZ First are in coalition  with Labour.

Two: if Winston had run away from the fight in Northland, h ed have been called a chicken, and Winston doesn't like being called a chicken. Meanwhile, the voters of Tauranga have got wise to him, which is why they booted him out in the first place. And since then, his vote there has decreased whatever he does. That's with over half of his membership living in the electorate, by the way. So Northland is his only shot, and it isn't a great one. Their only other prospect of a gain is Whangarei, and there hat isn't happening either.