New Zealand Election 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is an excellent idea and he should totally be allowed to do it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RIP UFNZ HP

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing to note: polling in New Zealand has historically tended to overestimate the Nationals (and since they've been a factor, also the greens) and to underestimate Labour and the various populist parties. Of course a tendency isn't the same thing as a rule.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

This is pretty obviously what is going on (it's done for obvious commercial reasons o/c). They may even be right to (and such was the suddenness of the shift in this case from landslide re-election to potential defeat that maybe this call is sounder than always), but...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow, that's a landslide ...

It isn't a landslide, the government has only just about squeaked re-election. And they've done so in a way that, how shall we say, stores up trouble for next time round...