Is Wisconsin gone for the dems in 2020? (maybe not)

[Hindsight was 2020]

In the wake of both Trump and Ron Johnson's victories many have speculated that Wisconsin is now Trump territory. However, upon closer look at the details doesn't say that. Trump won Wisconsin by 1,404,000 but in 2012 Mitt got 1,408,000 so Trump did worse than Mitt so how did he win? Hillary got 1,381,000 to Obama's 1,621,000 so Hillary like Trump under-performed 2012 but by alot. So if in 2020 the dems have a more popular candidate is Wisconsin likely to flip back?
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/wisconsin

[jamestroll]

If Bush simply got 12,000 more votes in 2004 than he did, Wisconsin would have been seen as a swing state going into 2016.

In hindsight, it is extraordinarily bizarre and stupid that Democrats thought Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio , Iowa were part of a "blue freiwall".

It is too early to call if Wisconsin is gone for the Democrats in 2020. It could be like Indiana 2012 or West Virginia 2000. I am inclined to believe the former, but I may be biased as I am a Democrat.

[Fuzzy Bear]

WI is a swing state at best, and may well revert to the Democrats.  It is NOT a conservative bastion and has a long, and bi-partisan "progressive" tradition (in the LaFollette mold).

[LLR]

Of course not. If we run a competent nominee we can win back some votes in Milwaukee and the Obama-Trump counties, and that will be more than enough. We lost by some 20,000 votes, it sure as hell ain't gone.

[DPKdebator]

I would hardly call it a Republican state, but it's definitely not the place that it once was for Democrats.

[jamestroll]

If Bush simply got 12,000 more votes in 2004 than he did, Wisconsin would have been seen as a swing state going into 2016.

In hindsight, it is extraordinarily bizarre and stupid that Democrats thought Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio , Iowa were part of a "blue freiwall".

It is too early to call if Wisconsin is gone for the Democrats in 2020. It could be like Indiana 2012 or West Virginia 2000. I am inclined to believe the former, but I may be biased as I am a Democrat.

What are you talking about?  Nobody ever said Ohio and Iowa were part of a blue firewall.

Okay, I apologize. I have a slight tendency to exaggerate.  But my point still stands that Having Wisconsin, Michigan and almost Minnesota are a blue firewall was always a silly concept.

For 2020, if a Democrat can win the presidency by a large margin, I would be shocked in Wisconsin and Georgia do not vote for the Democrat.

[Gass3268]

It is worth noting that Trump underperformed by a lot in the WOW counties - which is the reason why WI was even close in the first place. If he can get those votes back in 2020, WI should be much more favorable to him.

But yeah, WI is a swing state.

If Clinton got Feingold's numbers in Southcentral WI (outside of Dane County) and Southwest WI she would have won. It is really crazy to see how much the two races diverged, even with the same result.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

considering it hasn't voted for a republican for president in over three decades, obviously not

[Downnice]

It is a swing state

If the Democrats double down on the elistest minority pandering I think Trump will retain.

If they go for a Sanders type of candiadate and/or put a focus on working class people then I will lean it to the democrats

[Pericles]

I think a state won by 1%, at the most, by Trump is far from 'gone' for the Democrats. People should pay more attention to the margins in states when deciding whether or not they are swing states.

[Heisenberg]

If Bush simply got 12,000 more votes in 2004 than he did, Wisconsin would have been seen as a swing state going into 2016.

Or 5,000 more votes in 2000.

WI is definitely a fascinating and one of the most interesting states in the country.

I agree. While it is the state of the La Follette family, Victor Berger, Tammy Baldwin and Russ Feingold, remember it is also the state of Joe McCarthy, Bob Kasten, Tommy Thompson, Scott Walker, and Ron Johnson. It's a very polarized state, with both a strong left and right.

[elcorazon]

The Scott Walker elections along with the Senate results show me that while I agree Wisconsin will continue to be a swing state, it is slightly trending Republican. The Trump Presidency will determine which way it goes in 2020 I believe. I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to be to the right of the country and possibly be near the tipping point or to the right of the tipping point.

[Xing]

LOL, right, a state that Trump won by less than 1% is now gone for Democrats. Just like Indiana was gone for Republicans after 2008! Trump got fewer votes than Romney, so a lot of his victory can be explained by Democrats failing to motivate their base. Democrats obviously can't take the state for granted, but if they start writing off the state because of a narrow loss, they deserve to become a dead party.

[Young Conservative]

considering it hasn't voted for a republican for president in over three decades days, obviously not

I assume this is what you meant to say?

[Fuzzy Bear]

I would hardly call it a Republican state, but it's definitely not the place that it once was for Democrats.

It's never been the kind of Democratic state MA is, but MA went for Reagan twice.  WI would not have gone for Reagan in 1980 if Gov. Lucey wasn't Anderson's VP running mate.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

considering it hasn't voted for a republican for president in over three decades days, obviously not

I assume this is what you meant to say?

tnvo is correct

[OSR stands with Israel]

considering it hasn't voted for a republican for president in over three decades days, obviously not

I assume this is what you meant to say?

She thinks the election was stolen from the Democrats (like 2004).

On which planet was 2004 stolen

[pbrower2a]

The key to the Republicans winning Wisconsin in 2020 is the re-election of Scott Walker or his Republican successor. If the Democrats get the Governorship of Wisconsin in 2018, then there will be no effort at voter suppression.   

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

considering it hasn't voted for a republican for president in over three decades days, obviously not

I assume this is what you meant to say?

She thinks the election was stolen from the Democrats (like 2004).

On which planet was 2004 stolen

earth?

[andrew_c]

Absolutely not. It's up for grabs.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Likely 2020 map, IMO:

Jimmy Carter and Wayne Mixon (Democratic) 339 EV
Donald Trump and Mike Pence (Republican) 190 EV
Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden (VT Unpledged Electors) 3 EV

[Lachi]

Likely 2020 map, IMO:

Jimmy Carter and Wayne Mixon (Democratic) 339 EV
Donald Trump and Mike Pence (Republican) 190 EV
Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden (VT Unpledged Electors) 3 EV

LOL