Predict Control of the Senate After 2018/20/22
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Poll
Question: We did a similar poll in pre-2014
#1
R/R/R
 
#2
R/R/D
 
#3
R/D/R
 
#4
R/D/D
 
#5
D/D/D
 
#6
D/D/R
 
#7
D/R/D
 
#8
D/R/R
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 91

Author Topic: Predict Control of the Senate After 2018/20/22  (Read 4964 times)
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ExtremeRepublican
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« on: December 05, 2016, 10:21:33 AM »

Likely R/R/R, though R/R/D wouldn't surprise me either.

I allowed options starting with a D, but you're a hack if you pick one of them!
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2016, 10:37:32 AM »

R/D/R: Dems pick up Nevada in 2018 for 51-49 GOP control. Dems pick up NC and CO in 2020 for 51-49 Democrat control, but GOP regains control when they pick up NH and CO in 2022 (Gardner runs against Bennet after losing in 2020). Or this could all be incorrect! Who knows?
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2016, 10:44:03 AM »

R/D/R: Dems pick up Nevada in 2018 for 51-49 GOP control. Dems pick up NC and CO in 2020 for 51-49 Democrat control, but GOP regains control when they pick up NH and CO in 2022 (Gardner runs against Bennet after losing in 2020). Or this could all be incorrect! Who knows?

I would assume you have Trump losing in 2020?

Yea, I'm assuming Trump loses, partly because the Midwest swings back toward Democrats, bolstered by strong senate campaigns by Franken, Peters, and Durbin, and a focus on minorities in economically depressed areas by DNC chair Ellison.
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Figueira
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2016, 11:45:57 AM »

R/R/R is the most likely, followed by R/R/D and R/D/R. R/D/D is not out of the question either. Anything starting with D is pretty darn unlikely--if it does happen I'd say D/D/R is the most likely, followed by D/R/D and D/D/D. D/R/R is the least likely.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2016, 12:13:23 PM »

R/D/R: Dems pick up Nevada in 2018 for 51-49 GOP control. Dems pick up NC and CO in 2020 for 51-49 Democrat control, but GOP regains control when they pick up NH and CO in 2022 (Gardner runs against Bennet after losing in 2020). Or this could all be incorrect! Who knows?

I would assume you have Trump losing in 2020?
Why are we assuming Trump even runs? I'm not so sure he will...
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2016, 12:26:27 PM »

RDR, with a Democrat winning in 2020.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2016, 01:51:45 PM »

R/D/R: Dems pick up Nevada in 2018 for 51-49 GOP control. Dems pick up NC and CO in 2020 for 51-49 Democrat control, but GOP regains control when they pick up NH and CO in 2022 (Gardner runs against Bennet after losing in 2020). Or this could all be incorrect! Who knows?

I would assume you have Trump losing in 2020?
Why are we assuming Trump even runs? I'm not so sure he will...
Trump would run in 2020 unless he really unpopular in which case Pence is screwed as well
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2016, 02:09:36 PM »

R/R/D. Though obviously if Trump is defeated in 2020 it changes a lot.
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JGibson
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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2016, 05:17:17 PM »

R/D/D

2018 (116th): R
2020 (117th): D
2022 (118th): D
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2016, 07:49:51 PM »

RRD or RRR. I just don't see Dems picking up many seats in 2020, so it all comes down to whether they can do better in 2022 (a midterm) than they did this year.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2016, 07:57:12 PM »

RRR or RDR.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2016, 08:16:58 PM »

Depends on how Trump does as President.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2016, 08:24:47 PM »

Maybe R/R/D? Trump might not even run for a second term.
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Kevin
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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2016, 09:13:02 PM »

R/R/D?

Pretty much impossible for the Dems to gain control of the Senate in 2018, and given historical trends I'm inclined to give Trump a 2nd term(even though he hasn't taken office yet).

Although 2022 could be interesting with this scenario.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2016, 12:04:40 AM »

Strangely, R/D/R is probably the second most likely scenario overall and the likeliest if Trump loses in 2020.  D/D/D is insane and the only I can see R/R/R happening is if Trump just barely loses.  Given where the states are moving, the 2022 map is almost as bad for R's as the 2018 map is for D's
What if Trump is unpopular and one or two Republicans become Democrats, perhaps John McCain and/or former Blue Dog Democrat John Kennedy (if he wins in LA). I can only see R/R/R if Trump is popular. R/R/D barring party switches by Senators. With one or two Senators changing parties, R/D/D maybe.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2016, 10:11:05 AM »

The Senate is terrible for Democrats given their current concentration of voters in a few, very populous states.
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2016, 12:06:26 AM »

Strangely, R/D/R is probably the second most likely scenario overall and the likeliest if Trump loses in 2020.  D/D/D is insane and the only I can see R/R/R happening is if Trump just barely loses.  Given where the states are moving, the 2022 map is almost as bad for R's as the 2018 map is for D's
What if Trump is unpopular and one or two Republicans become Democrats, perhaps John McCain and/or former Blue Dog Democrat John Kennedy (if he wins in LA). I can only see R/R/R if Trump is popular. R/R/D barring party switches by Senators. With one or two Senators changing parties, R/D/D maybe.
John McCain, a Democrat?
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ERM64man
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« Reply #17 on: December 07, 2016, 12:29:18 AM »
« Edited: December 07, 2016, 12:31:52 AM by ERM64man »

Strangely, R/D/R is probably the second most likely scenario overall and the likeliest if Trump loses in 2020.  D/D/D is insane and the only I can see R/R/R happening is if Trump just barely loses.  Given where the states are moving, the 2022 map is almost as bad for R's as the 2018 map is for D's
What if Trump is unpopular and one or two Republicans become Democrats, perhaps John McCain and/or former Blue Dog Democrat John Kennedy (if he wins in LA). I can only see R/R/R if Trump is popular. R/R/D barring party switches by Senators. With one or two Senators changing parties, R/D/D maybe.
John McCain, a Democrat?
I'm not certain he will switch, but I think there's a chance he might become a DINO (switch registration and change caucus but still effectively be a Republican in practice) due to a poor relationship with Trump.
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« Reply #18 on: December 07, 2016, 04:15:56 PM »

R/R/R (assuming Trump bumped in 2020)
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Pericles
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« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2016, 05:21:47 PM »

The Senate is terrible for Democrats given their current concentration of voters in a few, very populous states.

Obama won more states than Romney.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2016, 08:59:31 PM »

Which GOP Senators would vote to turn Medicare into a voucher program? Will that have an impact on their careers?
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Make My Bank Account Great Again
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« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2016, 03:06:32 AM »

R/R/D

Dems have too much of an uphill battle in 2018. They will be split during the 2020 primary unless Warren is the nominee (and even then there's some caveats).

2022 will be their breakout year.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2016, 11:20:39 AM »

I'm almost sure of it that Republicans will keep the Senate in 2018, but both 2020 and 2022 could be a Democratic wave year if Trump's first term ends up being really bad.
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Mike67
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« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2016, 12:21:31 PM »

R/R/R in my opinion
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2016, 10:28:05 AM »

R/D/D the D will do great in 2018 (retake the house and pick up a lot of governorships) but face too much of an uphill battle in 2018 but in 2020 an 2022 that is flipped with the map being awful for R's
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