North Carolina is not a swing state

[Lothal1]

In 2016 Trump did better than Romney despite Hillary gaining in the Research Triangle and Charlotte and higher minority turnout. Hillary spent an overwhelming amount of money there, and campaign there heavily. In 2008, a semi-landslide, Obama only won the state by a couple thousand votes despite record turnout by young voters, African Americans, a financial crisis, and the keys all in his favor. The Senate race was won by 4 points and Roy Cooper won by only 8000 votes with everything for him. The state is trending Democrat, but it is in no way a swing state, yet.

[Vosem]

Trump won it by 3%, with less than a majority of the vote, and trendlines are unfavorable. It's a tilt-R state.

What I was really surprised to see -- and a place that probably needs Democratic attention more than GA or NC -- was that AZ was closer than NC; it was generally thought of a reach state during the campaign, along the lines of GA, even as Democratic chances in NC were overstated massively. Flipping just FL + AZ compared to 2016, incidentally, is a Democratic victory (though doing less than a percentage point better in the Rust Belt is probably still the least-resistance path for 2020).

Greens did not have ballot access in NC or GA. Stein was a registered write-in in both states, and received 0.3% in NC and 0.2% in GA; insignificant figures. Compare MI, PA, and WI, where she did better than the Trump-Clinton margin.

[Virginiá]

Looking at the exit polls, it is not all that surprising:

1. North Carolina's electorate is 3% whiter than Virginia's
2. Whites are roughly 4% more Republican in NC, at least this year.
3. North Carolina is much more polarized along generational lines than Virginia, leaving Democrats overly reliant on younger voters, who, while they vote heavily Democratic, are outmatched by old people who vote just as heavily Republican. An uninspiring or even loathed choice for young voters can make turnout a more difficult game.
4. Minority turnout is also an issue.

It's possibly the case that Obama's uniqueness took a state that was on its way to becoming a swing state but wasn't ready yet, flipped it/drew it close in 2 elections and thus gave the impression that it was more competitive than it truly is (right now)

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump won it by 3%, with less than a majority of the vote, and trendlines are unfavorable. It's a tilt-R state.

After the state GOP blew both its feet off with a shotgun and then tied both of its hands.