OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Panda Express]

Sherrod Brown will break him like a boy (again)

[BuckeyeNut]

Hopefully Tiberi or Kasich runs for this.

Kasich won't, Tiberi likely will. Small chance Renanci does.

[publicunofficial]

Hopefully Tiberi or Kasich runs for this.

Kasich won't, Tiberi likely will. Small chance Renanci does.

Renacci, from what I can tell, doesn't seem like the ambitious type. Could be wrong though.

[Vosem]

YESSS! Let's go!

Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this!

I thought your Mandel love was sarcastic?

I mean, it's exaggerated a little, but Mandel is honestly among my favorite Ohio Republicans; I'll definitely be supporting him in a primary against Tiberi or whoever

[Figueira]

I'm sure running as Trump 2.0 will go over great in an anti-Trump midterm!

[MT Treasurer]

After McCaskill and Donnelly, Brown is the most likely D to lose IMO.

[Young Conservative]

I'm sure running as Trump 2.0 will go over great in an anti-Trump midterm!

>Assuming 2018 will be anti-trump
>Assuming a national level dissatisfaction with trump will have a major effect on a state trump won by 9 points.
>calling Josh Mandel Trump 2.0

I take so many qualms with your 'analysis'

[BuckeyeNut]

YESSS! Let's go!

Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this!

I thought your Mandel love was sarcastic?

I mean, it's exaggerated a little, but Mandel is honestly among my favorite Ohio Republicans; I'll definitely be supporting him in a primary against Tiberi or whoever

Why? I think you are the only Republican I know who likes Mandel. Most conservatives I know recognize him as the careerist that he is.

[LabourJersey]

I'm sure running as Trump 2.0 will go over great in an anti-Trump midterm!

>Assuming 2018 will be anti-trump
>Assuming a national level dissatisfaction with trump will have a major effect on a state trump won by 9 points.
>calling Josh Mandel Trump 2.0

I take so many qualms with your 'analysis'

I don't understand why you (and quite a few other people on the forum) think the prospect of the midterms going against Trump to be just a coin flip. Short of a massive terrorist attack or very poor leadership, a President's party is bound to lose seats in Congress in a midterm year. This is even more likely for Trump, since he's starting out his term with barely favorable numbers. Clinton also would have probably faced a poor midterm (another "wipeout" in the senate was my worst fear as a Democrat before Nov.

If there is a solid foreign policy win or economic gains around Oct. 2018 then of course the midterm could be a wash. But everyone Trump has done so far/everyone he is surrounding himself with suggest that probably won't be the case. So I think it is best to assume Trump will have a mildly bad midterm for now, based on previous precedent and the state of Trump's approval.

[Blackacre]

Ah, Josh Mandel... the guy who literally sounds like Prince Zuko from Avatar the Last Airbender. In the debate in 2012 I half expected him to talk about capturing the Avatar to please the Fire Lord and regain his honour.

My boy Sherrod will break him again.

[peterthlee]

Oh, Russ Feingold replica is coming. Kiss of death is posed on him from the very beginning.
(Despite this, the race will be a bit closer than 2012, at around a weak Dem hold of 4 points)

[Xing]

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D.

[Del Tachi]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi.  

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

[Heisenberg]

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D.

I misread Sheheen as Shaheen. Angry Jeanne won a rematch. Collin Peterson in Minnesota lost twice to Arlan Strangeland before unseating him in 1990. I'm sure there are others.

Not all rematches are doomed for failure. Also, Hagedorn would havve won his rematch against Walz if the National Republican Party actually helped him.

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either?

Blunt will be 72 in 2022, and I think he sees the writing on the wall. I doubt he goes for a third term. I actually think Republicans are better off if Blunt retires, and then someone like Wagner, Greitens, Schmitt, or Smith takes the seat. Any of those four can beat Kander, but probably not Blunt.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi.  

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich's too interested in primarying Trump, and with the coupe in the Ohio GOP ousting the Kasich wing, it's fairly unlikely Tiberi runs now. Husted's running for Governor.

[Skye]

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D.

It's probably because the environment was so surprisingly favorable for the GOP last year. I mean, who would have thought Trump would win the state by 8 points? Maybe some would have answered Kasich. I would definitely keep an eye on this race, but I wouldn't say Brown is doomed.

[Rjjr77]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi.  

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich couldn't beat Mandel in a primary right now.

Husted's running for governor, he's probably the best republican on the bench in the state though

[publicunofficial]

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either?

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

[publicunofficial]

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year.

I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. 

No offense but sometimes I think you let your individual feelings towards a candidate cloud your judgement of how strong/weak they are.

[BuckeyeNut]

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year.

I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. 

Tiberi would make inroads into the increasingly Democratic and ever growing Columbus metro-area. Which a Republican doesn't NEED to do, but it doesn't hurt, either.

[Pericles]

Mandel will lose by double digits.

[wjx987]

Link

New poll from WPA shows Sherrod Brown down to Josh Mandel in OH-SEN 40%-39%, including losing Indys 38%-37% with 24% undecided



Dominating!

Brown is down by one point, and Mandel's dominating?

Don't be too quick to judge. The election is two years off still, and one point is not that big of a difference.

[SATW]

Keeping hating, haters. Josh Mandel will surprise, wow, and put all in awe.

One of my favorite candidates for 2018.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mandel has already recruited campaign leaders in all 88 Ohio counties

At least one of which wasn't consulted on being a campaign chair. lol

[Rjjr77]

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year.

I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. 

I don't think Tiberi is running anymore, he tied himself to the Kasich team in Ohio, and the Kasich camp has taken massive damage this past year, I'd be surprised if he'd give up his seat to most likely lose to mandel