OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Heisenberg]

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year.

I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. 

At this point he's probably waiting for Brady to retire/be termed out as Ways & Means Chairman so he can take the spot.
I don't think Tiberi is running anymore, he tied himself to the Kasich team in Ohio, and the Kasich camp has taken massive damage this past year, I'd be surprised if he'd give up his seat to most likely lose to mandel

[Pericles]

Sherrod Brown can actually talk to Ohioans,  and he is the kind of progressive people vote for. Mandel is a baby-faced little Marco for Ohio. Trump will be very unpopular by 2018, and I have a hard time seeing the GOP win he seat in an anti-Trump midterm when they couldn't in a presidential election year.

[Rjjr77]

Sherrod Brown can actually talk to Ohioans,  and he is the kind of progressive people vote for. Mandel is a baby-faced little Marco for Ohio. Trump will be very unpopular by 2018, and I have a hard time seeing the GOP win he seat in an anti-Trump midterm when they couldn't in a presidential election year.

Sherrod is considered by all to be a talented politician, but someone too far left for his state, mandel isn't beloved but he's a fundraising machine


Ohio trends much further right in midterms, than presidentials. That's why they've had only 16 years of a democrat governor(and only one two term democrat governor) since 1963.

Finally mandel didn't lose to brown by that large a margin, all things considered.

[Pericles]

Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.

[Young Conservative]

Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.

Not all midterms are equal. 2006 was a massive democratic wave.

[Pericles]

Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.

Not all midterms are equal. 2006 was a massive democratic wave.

Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy.

[Heisenberg]

Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.

Not all midterms are equal. 2006 was a massive democratic wave.

Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy.

Republicans almost have nowhere to go but up. So many targets.

[jamestroll]

Heisenberg in the US Senate you may be right but in the House no.

I actually think Democrats will retake control of the House in 2018. Not a significant majority but a working majority unlike the class of 2006 or 2008.

Anyway Brown is beatable but I do not think Mandel can do it. Rematches rarely work out. Find a different candidate and Brown could be in trouble quickly. But we can not assume Brown will be booted out just because Ohio voted for Trump. It may be easier for a Democrat to win without the socialist Kenyan born Muslim in office

[publicunofficial]

Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench.

[BuckeyeNut]

Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench.

It should be telling that the more qualified Republican office holders are looking at the Governor's mansion and row offices, not D.C.

[Heisenberg]

Heisenberg in the US Senate you may be right but in the House no.

I actually think Democrats will retake control of the House in 2018. Not a significant majority but a working majority unlike the class of 2006 or 2008.

Anyway Brown is beatable but I do not think Mandel can do it. Rematches rarely work out. Find a different candidate and Brown could be in trouble quickly. But we can not assume Brown will be booted out just because Ohio voted for Trump. It may be easier for a Democrat to win without the socialist Kenyan born Muslim in office

Sorry for not clarifying. I thought the context made that pretty obvious. I don't know which party controls the House yet but I am almost certain it will be by less than 10 seats. By "working majority" I assume you're referring to the Blue Dog/New Democrat/"Mainline"/Progressive intra-party battles that went on in the 2006-10 years? Because if Democrats do regain the House it will almost certainly be with a smaller majority than those years.

Maybe these aren't the best, but there have been plenty of House rematches (1992/94/96, and 2004/06/08/10 cycles) that were successful. Of course, some were massive waves and others not, but still. As a Republican I'd obviously prefer my party keep the House next term. But unless Ellison becomes the face of the Democrats I won't be that disappointed.

[Holmes]

Keeping hating, haters. Josh Mandel will surprise, wow, and put all in awe.

One of my favorite candidates for 2018.

Literally the most basic, generic and boring candidate that can code out of Ohio's Republicsn bench. If you're going to stan some lame ass candidate at least make it a somewhat interesting one.

[BuckeyeNut]

Keeping hating, haters. Josh Mandel will surprise, wow, and put all in awe.

One of my favorite candidates for 2018.

Literally the most basic, generic and boring candidate that can code out of Ohio's Republicsn bench. If you're going to stan some lame ass candidate at least make it a somewhat interesting one.

Also not well liked. There's a reason he did the poorest of every statewide office holder in '14, and it wasn't really because his opponent was great.

[Figueira]

Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.

Not all midterms are equal. 2006 was a massive democratic wave.

Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy.

Republicans almost have nowhere to go but up. So many targets.

Whether a year is a wave for a party or not isn't determined by the number of Senate seats that change hands. The fact that Republicans are favored in North Dakota has absolutely no bearing on Ohio.

[Xing]

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either?

Certainly not "very likely." It's possible (and I'm not saying it's impossible for Mandel to beat Brown), but Kander might be old news in 2022.

Of course Mandel vs. Brown wouldn't be Safe D (unless Brown is up by double digits in September 2018), but Mandel probably needs some wind at his back to beat Brown.

[Rjjr77]

Besides his fundraising ability, I don't see how Mandel was a good enough candidate in 2012 to justify a retread. And it's not like Ohio has a small Republican bench.

It should be telling that the more qualified Republican office holders are looking at the Governor's mansion and row offices, not D.C.

Well, I mean Husted has been pretty clear that governor was his end game in politics since his time as speaker, Dewine clearly doesn't want to go back. Mandel, Yost and Taylor are all probably on the same level of candidate skills, All with faults compared to Husted and Dewine. The interesting one is Renacci who by all thinking would be a strong and scary(to democrats) senate candidate, who is interested in hopping into a crowded primary.

[Del Tachi]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi. 

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich's too interested in primarying Trump, and with the coupe in the Ohio GOP ousting the Kasich wing, it's fairly unlikely Tiberi runs now. Husted's running for Governor.

Husted's running for Governor?  Is DeWine out?  Mary Taylor?

[BuckeyeNut]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi. 

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich's too interested in primarying Trump, and with the coupe in the Ohio GOP ousting the Kasich wing, it's fairly unlikely Tiberi runs now. Husted's running for Governor.

Husted's running for Governor?  Is DeWine out?  Mary Taylor?

They're all running for Governor, and that's been the story since late '15.

[Rjjr77]

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi. 

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich's too interested in primarying Trump, and with the coupe in the Ohio GOP ousting the Kasich wing, it's fairly unlikely Tiberi runs now. Husted's running for Governor.

Husted's running for Governor?  Is DeWine out?  Mary Taylor?

Husted and Dewine are tier one.
Taylor and Renacci are tier two.
And this thing is a 4 way race as of right now

[JohnCA246]

Wouldn't Kasich run for this seat?

[Rjjr77]

Wouldn't Kasich run for this seat?

No. He doesn't appear to want it, and his political capital with Ohio is running on empty.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot.

Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created?  I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like that pre-pubescent humanoid weasel.

[Heisenberg]

Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot.

Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created?  I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like this pre-pubescent humanoid weasel.

I'd prefer a different challenger, but I just really dislike Brown (and other solid progressives from swing/lean R states). Whoever his R opponent is has my support.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge.