OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Rjjr77]

If Josh Mandel is all we can get​ we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once.

Tiberi is a pretty weak candidate, someone like Jim Jordan or John Husted would mop the floor with mandel but they aren't running. Renacci could actually make noise in that primary too but at this stage, it's going to be mandel.

[Heisenberg]

If Josh Mandel is all we can get​ we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once.

Tiberi is a pretty weak candidate, someone like Jim Jordan or John Husted would mop the floor with mandel but they aren't running. Renacci could actually make noise in that primary too but at this stage, it's going to be mandel.

Jordan is very well-known nationally, but he'd be a poor GE candidate, I think. Moderate suburbanites will probably vote for Brown, though I don't think they'll care too much for either.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

[Rjjr77]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

I don't know if I agree with that, yes he's very conservative, but he's not conservative in an unlikeable way and he's easily the best known congressman in the state. While Brown is probably too left for the state and Jordan is probably too right, they are similarities to how they go about being on their ideological sides.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

I don't know if I agree with that, yes he's very conservative, but he's not conservative in an unlikeable way and he's easily the best known congressman in the state. While Brown is probably too left for the state and Jordan is probably too right, they are similarities to how they go about being on their ideological sides.

Jordan would be a horrible candidate and is a pretty obnoxious guy to boot.  He's easily one of the more unlikable politicians in Ohio on either side (up there with Josh Mandel).  I'd also argue that Tim Ryan probably has higher name recognition in Ohio and that Ryan, Stivers, Tiberi, and Beatty all have better fundraising connections than Jordan (part of this is b/c Jordan is by all account such an insufferable pr!ck that it's often almost impossible to work with him, to the point that he came very close to having his seat eliminated in the last round of redistricting b/c he'd managed to piss off so many folks in the OH GOP).  

There's essentially no meaningful similarity between Brown and Jordan's brands either.  Jordan's brand is essentially "I'm a proudly right-wing on everything and I'll act like a caveman whenever I d*** well please because f*** those liberal wimps and RINO squishes who are always being so PC.  I'd gladly take permanent minority status over any form of compromise every day of the week."  He's like a cross between Jim DeMint and Krazen  He also doesn't have much of a geographic base in the state either.

Sherrod Brown's brand is that essentially that he's a highly principled, fiercely pro-union economic populist who has always looked out for Ohio's working class and won't throw blue-colar Ohioans under the bus.  He is pretty also well-respected (even a number of Republicans here at least consider him a  decent enough guy) and doesn't really come across as a partisan hack or a far-left bomb-thrower.

TL;DR: Jordan would struggle in a statewide primary because even some of the tea-partiers (to the extent that's even still a thing) can't stand him (to say nothing of everyone else in Ohio) and it's not impossible to see him losing the Republican primary in his own district to an A-list challenger (although I doubt that he'll face one before the next re-districting).  Brown is a well-respected and pretty well-liked Senator with a solid base among blue-collar Ohioans.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

I don't know if I agree with that, yes he's very conservative, but he's not conservative in an unlikeable way and he's easily the best known congressman in the state. While Brown is probably too left for the state and Jordan is probably too right, they are similarities to how they go about being on their ideological sides.

Jordan would be a horrible candidate and is a pretty obnoxious guy to boot.  He's easily one of the more unlikable politicians in Ohio on either side (up there with Josh Mandel).  I'd also argue that Tim Ryan probably has higher name recognition in Ohio and that Ryan, Stivers, Tiberi, and Beatty all have better fundraising connections than Jordan (part of this is b/c Jordan is by all account such an insufferable pr!ck that it's often almost impossible to work with him, to the point that he came very close to having his seat eliminated in the last round of redistricting b/c he'd managed to piss off so many folks in the OH GOP). 

There's essentially no meaningful similarity between Brown and Jordan's brands either.  Jordan's brand is essentially "I'm a proudly right-wing on everything and I'll act like a caveman whenever I d*** well please because f*** those liberal wimps and RINO squishes who are always being so PC.  I'd gladly take permanent minority status over any form of compromise every day of the week."  He's like a cross between Jim DeMint and Krazen   He also doesn't have much of a geographic base in the state either.

Sherrod Brown's brand is that essentially that he's a highly principled, fiercely pro-union economic populist who has always looked out for Ohio's working class and won't throw blue-colar Ohioans under the bus.  He is pretty also well-respected (even a number of Republicans here at least consider him a  decent enough guy) and doesn't really come across as a partisan hack or a far-left bomb-thrower.

TL;DR: Jordan would struggle in a statewide primary because even some of the tea-partiers (to the extent that's even still a thing) can't stand him (to say nothing of everyone else in Ohio) and it's not impossible to see him losing the Republican primary in his own district to an A-list challenger (although I doubt that he'll face one before the next re-districting).  Brown is a well-respected and pretty well-liked Senator with a solid base among blue-collar Ohioans.

Jordan may be well known, but it isn't for anything good. If Republicans are mad at Tiberi for holding up ACHA, they must really hate Jordan. Also, the bolded is important. Jordan almost lost his district in '12. He should have never risen above State Senator for the Lima-area.

ION: Kasich suggests he won't endorse Mandel in the Senate general election.

[The Other Castro]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

[Brittain33]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option. 

[KingSweden]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option. 

He's ultra super duper safe in his district and has a massive war chest. I think he made a rational call

[Holmes]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. 

[windjammer]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. 

You think he would have won with Clinton president?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. 

You think he would have won with Clinton president?

Against Mandel?  Definitely.

Against Tiberi?  Probably a narrow loss for Brown (2-3%), but it'd be really close either way.  It'd be one of the marquee races of the cycle.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option.  

He's ultra super duper safe in his district and has a massive war chest. I think he made a rational call.

His district actually trended (non-Atlas) blue last year and the Indivisible group in his district is very fierce. It's not the OH-16th, but he could fall next year if things go sideways and an A-list candidate emerges. (But there aren't really any A-listers in the district. Kilroy-retread notwithstanding.)

[Rjjr77]

After I had been hearing early rumors about another congressman possibly challenging Mandel, Rob Portman surprisingly endorsed Mandel very early, essentially clearing the field.

[RogueBeaver]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

[publicunofficial]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

A JD Vance/Josh Mandel primary would be a contest to see which one I hate more.

[Figueira]

That decision kind of makes sense--Brown is probably at least somewhat favored against anyone (well, anyone who could plausibly run) and Tiberi is fine in his district.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh

[Rjjr77]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh

vance is no where near ready to run for senate. Only thing i could see him possibly winning would be an Auditor's GOP primary, and even thats a stretch at this juncture

[BuckeyeNut]

Portman endorsing Mandel just goes to show X's point about Ohio Republican "moderates" from the gubernatorial thread.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh

vance is no where near ready to run for senate. Only thing i could see him possibly winning would be an Auditor's GOP primary, and even thats a stretch at this juncture

Not a chance (although I'd love for him to be the nominee as we'd get a near-automatic pickup).  Vance would be seen by pretty much everyone outside the professional talking heads as as some random Silicon Valley elitist who left OH the first chance he got and didn't come back until he decided to take a stab at carpetbagging.  He's no more from Ohio than John Kerry was from Colorado.  He's not from here anymore.  On top of that, Vance has no name recognition, no political base, and his book would be easy to portray as taking a massive s*** all over rural Ohio.  Folks don't like having their dirty laundry aired in public.  And his campaign would almost certainly be seen by most Ohioans as "Hey dumb hicks, it's me, random West Coast Rich Dude!  I wrote a book about how your lives suck b/c you're too lazy to work hard and act responsibly; liberal media types love it!  Vote for me!  Did I mention that I wrote a book?"

[Kingpoleon]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey.

[mvd10]

 

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

A JD Vance/Josh Mandel primary would be a contest to see which one I hate love more.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey.

Both Austria and Duffey would be complete ass-pulls as candidates. Why on Earth even bring them up?