OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Blackacre]

Ah, Josh Mandel... the guy who literally sounds like Prince Zuko from Avatar the Last Airbender. In the debate in 2012 I half expected him to talk about capturing the Avatar to please the Fire Lord and regain his honour.

My boy Sherrod will break him again.

[Blackacre]

Mandel fans the flames of fear with his latest tweet:

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https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/843524028258275328

I really hope that man never becomes a Senator

[Blackacre]

Can someone explain the 'Brown is a good fit for his state' meme to me?

Like seriously Brown is one of the more liberal senators in the caucus while coming from one of the more conservative states represented there. You can say he's a great campaigner, has unique appeal, etc etc but good fit for his state I have a hard time buying.

Mandel's campaign has stagnated in recent months and goes to show why declaring super early in a cycle can be a double edged sword. While I think Mandel will be a lot tougher than most Dems here probably think in their hearts (given the overwhelming lead for Brown in the poll), I do think Brown may be the slightest of favorites right now.

I think Mandel's floor is higher than Brown's, however. I doubt Mandel could possibly do worse than he did in 2012 given how hard Ohio has swung right and how much infrastructure he has already put in place there. Mandel seems a lot to Ohio like Hillary was to the country last year: massive, well-organized campaign with a vaguely dislikable figure leading it.

That being said Hillary won the popular vote in spite of her likability issues so it's an open question whether this analogy bodes ill for Mandel or for Brown (or neither?) as of yet. Of course it is not a perfect analogy by any means either haha

I think the range of outcomes goes from Brown + 5 to Mandel + 8, with more probability weight towards the Brown end of that range. I could easily see Mandel turning out Trump voters in Ohio though, Dems have become anathema to small town Midwesterners in recent years and Trump's tweets don't change that.

Basically, Brown plays well with a lot of the labor WWC types who pushed the state to Trump. He's also anti-free trade, which contributed to trump's appeal. And he has a record of listening to people. And he's personable. He's a liberal, but he's not a HRC-type. He's more Bidenesque. The Obama-Trump voters who delivered it to the President won't vote en mass for Mandel.

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign, and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

Yeah, if the supposed victim isn't on your side when you're making the allegations, and is herself denying that it happened, the allegations won't carry much weight. Especially against Trump.

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

I think Dewines had enough of a break where he makes it a tough challenge for Brown, Taylor I think beats brown, she cant raise funds in a crowded primary but if shes it I think she can knock off sherrod.

Kasich couldnt win the primary.
Portman would slaughter Brown and drink from his skull on election night

I'm not even 100% sure I agree about that, (Brown >>>>>>>>>>>> Strickland) but regardless IDK if it's even possible for a sitting Senator to run for a Senate seat that they don't already hold. Regardless, won't happen.

[Blackacre]

Leans D --> Very Likely D