OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Heisenberg]

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

Brown isn't going to be safe, but Tiberi scares me more than Mandel. If Mandel wins the primary, I'd probably move this to Lean D.

I misread Sheheen as Shaheen. Angry Jeanne won a rematch. Collin Peterson in Minnesota lost twice to Arlan Strangeland before unseating him in 1990. I'm sure there are others.

Not all rematches are doomed for failure. Also, Hagedorn would havve won his rematch against Walz if the National Republican Party actually helped him.

Yes, clearly Mandel has to win this time. Just like Allen, Feingold, Raese, McMahon, Foley, Sheheen, Rossi... wait, these people won after running in an election they previously lost, right!?

So you don't think Kander is very likely to beat Blunt in 2022 either?

Blunt will be 72 in 2022, and I think he sees the writing on the wall. I doubt he goes for a third term. I actually think Republicans are better off if Blunt retires, and then someone like Wagner, Greitens, Schmitt, or Smith takes the seat. Any of those four can beat Kander, but probably not Blunt.

[Heisenberg]

No, I don't. I think if Kander is smart he'll run against Greitens or for an open seat.

Eh, maybe. But I think this whole "OMG rematches never work!!" narrative is a bit overblown. If 2018 is a good year for the GOP, Mandel will beat Brown. He could even do it in a neutral year.

I also think Tiberi is overhyped, but maybe that's just me. 

At this point he's probably waiting for Brady to retire/be termed out as Ways & Means Chairman so he can take the spot.
I don't think Tiberi is running anymore, he tied himself to the Kasich team in Ohio, and the Kasich camp has taken massive damage this past year, I'd be surprised if he'd give up his seat to most likely lose to mandel

[Heisenberg]

Mandel lost by over double the margin Romney lost in Ohio, and Brown won in 2006-a midterm-by 15%.

Not all midterms are equal. 2006 was a massive democratic wave.

Yes, and 2018 looks similar so far, with an unpopular Republican President, or at least far different from 2010 and 2014, which were Republican waves with an unpopular Democrat president(that is no longer the case). So I am right in using 2006 as an analogy.

Republicans almost have nowhere to go but up. So many targets.

[Heisenberg]

Heisenberg in the US Senate you may be right but in the House no.

I actually think Democrats will retake control of the House in 2018. Not a significant majority but a working majority unlike the class of 2006 or 2008.

Anyway Brown is beatable but I do not think Mandel can do it. Rematches rarely work out. Find a different candidate and Brown could be in trouble quickly. But we can not assume Brown will be booted out just because Ohio voted for Trump. It may be easier for a Democrat to win without the socialist Kenyan born Muslim in office

Sorry for not clarifying. I thought the context made that pretty obvious. I don't know which party controls the House yet but I am almost certain it will be by less than 10 seats. By "working majority" I assume you're referring to the Blue Dog/New Democrat/"Mainline"/Progressive intra-party battles that went on in the 2006-10 years? Because if Democrats do regain the House it will almost certainly be with a smaller majority than those years.

Maybe these aren't the best, but there have been plenty of House rematches (1992/94/96, and 2004/06/08/10 cycles) that were successful. Of course, some were massive waves and others not, but still. As a Republican I'd obviously prefer my party keep the House next term. But unless Ellison becomes the face of the Democrats I won't be that disappointed.

[Heisenberg]

Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot.

Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created?  I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like this pre-pubescent humanoid weasel.

I'd prefer a different challenger, but I just really dislike Brown (and other solid progressives from swing/lean R states). Whoever his R opponent is has my support.

[Heisenberg]

I'm surprised by the people on here who support Mandel and those who don't. It's most likely he won't receive a primary challenge.

The guy has a big war chest I hear. Also, the Kasich wings seems to be losing steam, the longtime Ohio Republican Chairman (Borges) was suddenly ousted, with even Mary Taylor opposing him. It looks like Mandel has shored up lots of support among all the wings of the Republican primary electorate, but there's still plenty of time I guess.

[Heisenberg]

If Josh Mandel is all we can get​ we deserve to lose. I think Tiberi still has a shot against him in the primary, just because Mandel already lost once.

Tiberi is a pretty weak candidate, someone like Jim Jordan or John Husted would mop the floor with mandel but they aren't running. Renacci could actually make noise in that primary too but at this stage, it's going to be mandel.

Jordan is very well-known nationally, but he'd be a poor GE candidate, I think. Moderate suburbanites will probably vote for Brown, though I don't think they'll care too much for either.

[Heisenberg]

I'm feeling really terrible about this race now. I wish Mandel would drop out and Renacci (whose Governor bid isn't going anywhere) switches to this one.

[Heisenberg]

Renacci could probably beat Mandel in a primary, but honestly, if Gibbons somehow beats Mandel, he'd do a lot better in the general. Renacci would probably do about the same, if not somewhat worse.

Gibbons's advantage seems to be simply that he is not Mandel. He's very closely tied to Kasich, which, after the primary season, seems to be a major DISadvantage (especially in the primaries, but still in the general as well, the GOP base won't be fired up, and it won't do anything with regards to crossover appeal).

[Heisenberg]

So it looks like it'll be Renacci vs Gibbons in the GOP primary.

Huh?

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http://www.newarkadvocate.com/story/news/2018/01/08/candidate-governor-touts-business-experience-attacks-career-politicians/1008053001/

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http://wksu.org/post/mandel-out-senate-race-turns-other-republicans#stream/0

Unless you know something I don't, it doesn't sound like Renacci will jump in.

[Heisenberg]

Is the district that he represents the same area Brown (and Sutton) did?

Yes, it does have parts of that old district. For the 2010 redistricting, OH-13 and OH-16 were mostly combined into one seat, with Renacci beating Sutton. Fun fact: It also made Renacci the only member of Congress to defeat two incumbents in consecutive House elections.