OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mandel is hot water for using public money to advertise a new program on TV, that in reality was closer to a self-promotional spot.

Are we sure the blue avatars that claim to really like this over-sized hemroid aren't just sock accounts Mandel created?  I have a hard time believing anyone could genuinely like that pre-pubescent humanoid weasel.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I heard that in 2012, this senate race had the most outside spending of any in the country, most of it being spent on opposing Sherrod Brown.  It obviously wasn't enough to unseat Brown, but it's pretty clear that this was a high priority seat for Republicans and business interests to win.  I'm sure with Trump winning the state by so much, the money spent there will only go up, so could that be enough to unseat Brown?

Nope.  Not if Mandel is the Republican nominee, at least   This race is probably solidly lean-D at worst given that 2018 is likely to be a good Democratic year (at the very least), Brown is a strong and fairly well-liked incumbent whose brand is a great fit for Ohio, and that Mandel is an absolutely horrible candidate (if any politician in America could make Ted Cruz seem likable by comparison, then surely that politician is Josh Mandel).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Josh Mandel has a shot now that the Trump swept Ohio. Brown is certainly far from being safe. Mandel could capitalize on Brown being a dinosaur of DC and he could win on that sentiment.

Keep dreaming

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Don't discount the dweeby sophomores, they make good politicians you know.

You realize Mandel is about as popular as testicular cancer, right?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I would wager that attacking Brown for not supporting the Muslim ban and being "pro-abortion/illegal immigrants/gun control" would all go down better than attacking him on healthcare, given that the free market solution for healthcare is going down like a lead Zeppelin and obamacare becomes less of a live wire of an issue.

I think Sherrod will manage it. Mandel seems like a relic of the Tea Party era.

Brown's not gonna lose to Mandel, period.  Even in a Hillary midterm, he'd have probably beaten Mandel.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So not only is Brown going to face the same opponent as 2012, but he'll also be using the same attacks from 2012 (Obamacare!)?

You can't just assume trends + midterm turnout will bail you out.

im expecting Sherrod Brown to win, but lets not act like he's invincible.

He might as well be if he's running against Josh Mandel

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

I don't know if I agree with that, yes he's very conservative, but he's not conservative in an unlikeable way and he's easily the best known congressman in the state. While Brown is probably too left for the state and Jordan is probably too right, they are similarities to how they go about being on their ideological sides.

Jordan would be a horrible candidate and is a pretty obnoxious guy to boot.  He's easily one of the more unlikable politicians in Ohio on either side (up there with Josh Mandel).  I'd also argue that Tim Ryan probably has higher name recognition in Ohio and that Ryan, Stivers, Tiberi, and Beatty all have better fundraising connections than Jordan (part of this is b/c Jordan is by all account such an insufferable pr!ck that it's often almost impossible to work with him, to the point that he came very close to having his seat eliminated in the last round of redistricting b/c he'd managed to piss off so many folks in the OH GOP).  

There's essentially no meaningful similarity between Brown and Jordan's brands either.  Jordan's brand is essentially "I'm a proudly right-wing on everything and I'll act like a caveman whenever I d*** well please because f*** those liberal wimps and RINO squishes who are always being so PC.  I'd gladly take permanent minority status over any form of compromise every day of the week."  He's like a cross between Jim DeMint and Krazen  He also doesn't have much of a geographic base in the state either.

Sherrod Brown's brand is that essentially that he's a highly principled, fiercely pro-union economic populist who has always looked out for Ohio's working class and won't throw blue-colar Ohioans under the bus.  He is pretty also well-respected (even a number of Republicans here at least consider him a  decent enough guy) and doesn't really come across as a partisan hack or a far-left bomb-thrower.

TL;DR: Jordan would struggle in a statewide primary because even some of the tea-partiers (to the extent that's even still a thing) can't stand him (to say nothing of everyone else in Ohio) and it's not impossible to see him losing the Republican primary in his own district to an A-list challenger (although I doubt that he'll face one before the next re-districting).  Brown is a well-respected and pretty well-liked Senator with a solid base among blue-collar Ohioans.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. 

You think he would have won with Clinton president?

Against Mandel?  Definitely.

Against Tiberi?  Probably a narrow loss for Brown (2-3%), but it'd be really close either way.  It'd be one of the marquee races of the cycle.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Some Team Kasich people want Vance to run, which IMO is quite stupid because a bloody pro/anti-Trump primary could severely damage whoever won (probably Mandel). Better idea would be Vance for Mandel's current job.

Vance would get slaughtered no matter what he ran for, tbh

vance is no where near ready to run for senate. Only thing i could see him possibly winning would be an Auditor's GOP primary, and even thats a stretch at this juncture

Not a chance (although I'd love for him to be the nominee as we'd get a near-automatic pickup).  Vance would be seen by pretty much everyone outside the professional talking heads as as some random Silicon Valley elitist who left OH the first chance he got and didn't come back until he decided to take a stab at carpetbagging.  He's no more from Ohio than John Kerry was from Colorado.  He's not from here anymore.  On top of that, Vance has no name recognition, no political base, and his book would be easy to portray as taking a massive s*** all over rural Ohio.  Folks don't like having their dirty laundry aired in public.  And his campaign would almost certainly be seen by most Ohioans as "Hey dumb hicks, it's me, random West Coast Rich Dude!  I wrote a book about how your lives suck b/c you're too lazy to work hard and act responsibly; liberal media types love it!  Vote for me!  Did I mention that I wrote a book?"

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey.

Both Austria and Duffey would be complete ass-pulls as candidates. Why on Earth even bring them up?

Both are very moderate, even more so than Portman, Kasich, and Tiberi. They're the only ones I can see even getting within 5% now.

Implying there are actual moderates in the OH Republican Party.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Saying Duffey isn't a moderate is interesting. ACU gives him a 56% in 2016, which is the same they have as the ratings of Frank LoBiondo, Adam Kinzinger, and Charlie Dent, all three of whom are undoubtedly moderates.

I'm pretty sure LoBiondo and especially Kinzinger are not moderates by any reasonable definition, but thanks for playing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The OH GOP is a joke. They need to get behind Mandel or put up a real challenger. I am a strong backer of Mandel, but if they really don't want him then put up a challenger.

Yeah it's the gop's fault some no name banker decides to jump in.

Mandel will win, the party won't play favorites and Sherrod will still be tilt leader

Brown will kick Ted Cruz Jr's a** and it'll so much fun to watch.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

At least we have this going for us.

The only Ohio polls out so far are Gravis and PPD. Both are bunk. That said, Brown needs to be on his A game, and as of now, he is.

Brown's only setting is A-game mode

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't think some of our non-Ohio blue avatars understand just how widely and intensely hated Mandel is by...well...pretty much everyone in Ohio

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This Mandel tweet speaks for itself.

Yikes

Mandel's siding with the Pizzagate, Seth Rich, "date rape does not exist" guy.

Yep, he's siding with the alt-right against the ADL.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

Right now this race is solidly lean D.  ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN).  One cycle does not a permanent realignment make.  The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best.  We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances.  And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

Right now this race is solidly lean D.  ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN).  One cycle does not a permanent realignment make.  The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best.  We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances.  And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two).

But there is a poll showing Kid Rock leading by 9!!!!

Not a credible one

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

When I think of what Mandel would be like as a Senator I just keep remembering that time Tom Cotton held up the appointment of a woman dying of cancer because she was Obama's friend.  I imagine he'll be a lot like that.

This.

Fortunately, Ohio isn't Arkansas, and Mandel is running against a strong incumbent he's already lost to once.

From what I've heard of Mandel, he's basically a worse Tom Cotton.

He's sooooooooooo much worse than that, take it from an Ohioan

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

*shrug*

The question is whether or not they dislike his opponents in each round worse.

Also, Larkin's long surpassed his quota of WORST CANDIDATE EVER!!!!!! editorials.

Even in 2012, I knew more than a few folks who voted straight-ticket Republican...except in the Senate race where they voted for Brown instead of Mandel (obviously this is anecdotal, but still).  Even folks who disagree with him generally consider him a decent guy (aside from your fire-breathing partisans and whacktivists).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Mandel is so awful that the Columbus Dispatch endorsed Sherrod Brown in 2012 (and not one of those reluctant half-endorsements either IIRC). 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Solid Lean D

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I still think its Tilt D. It would be tilt R with any of the other statewide republicans

Husted maybe, but otherwise, I don't think so. He's beat DeWine before and would do so again, while Taylor and Yost would be even less of a challenge. Kasich, as you've said, would have some trouble making it through his own party's primary. Portman vs Brown would be a bloodbath, but that obviously isn't happening, and Voinovich is dead, bless his soul.

Brown has to be in top form, but Republicans underestimate his campaign prowess at their own peril.

Underestimating him would be foolish yes, and frankly I hope Republicans overestimate him and put more resources than Necessary to beat him. He's a very good possible Presidential Nom and should be nipped in the bud now before he has a chance to run.

The wife beating allegations would probably sink a presidential nod. Which is why i think he'd never actual run

You mean the completely baseless lie Mandel's campaign literally made up in 2012?  You do realize that the woman Mandel's campaign claimed he did that to has consistently maintained that no such thing actually occurred, endorsed Brown in 2012, repeatedly spoke out condemning this disgusting smear campaign (and even hosted a frigging fundraiser for Brown in 2012 as well as appearing in an ad for his campaign in 2006), and that this desperate lie by Mandel's campaign was even publicaly condemned by some of the county chairs in the Ohio Republican Party, right?  This nonsense is about as credible as pizzagate.

I mean its not that nonsense and it wasn't made up by Mandel. She specifically made those allegations during their divorce. While it may have been she made false allegations or they've made up, they were made.

And she's said repeatedly that it never happened and that her claims were words said in anger during a divorce.  She's consistently said that ever since the first time an amoral Republican tried to make an issue of it back when Brown was running for the House.  Then as now, pretty much everyone roundly condemned this exceptionally disgusting smear attempt.  Mandel has falsely accused Brown of beating his current wife as well, offering such damning evidence as "Hey, I heard you beat beat your wife" and "You can probably read about that all over the internet" (yes, those are direct quotes from Mandel).  I get that you may really not like Brown, but spreading blatantly false allegations of domestic abuse is about as low as it gets.  Even for a political smear campaign, that's incredibly sleezy and says a lot about those who are willing to sink to such depths.  Pretty disgusting, to say the least.