OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[Vosem]

YESSS! Let's go!

Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this!

[Vosem]

YESSS! Let's go!

Will almost certainly volunteer, make calls, etc. Very pumped for this!

I thought your Mandel love was sarcastic?

I mean, it's exaggerated a little, but Mandel is honestly among my favorite Ohio Republicans; I'll definitely be supporting him in a primary against Tiberi or whoever

[Vosem]

What Republicans in Ohio don't like Mandel? And, yeah, I'm a big fan; the guy is a real economic conservative who understands the threat posed by Iran (and, by extension, Russia); he's sure to get my vote in 2018, even as I probably vote Democratic for the House to protest Trump.

"In 2012, Mandel broke with Mitt Romney on foreign policy concerning the status of U.S. military forces in Europe, advocating for their withdrawal in opposing the rehashing of past military conflicts." -Wikipedia

Sounds promising, and, given that Brown is a major Russophobe, there's nothing Ohio has to lose from electing Mandel (admittedly, a very weak candidate relative to Brown).

I would've agreed with that too prior to the Crimea intervention -- while I haven't spoken to him in a while, I'm familiar with his worldview, and I'm virtually certain that as a Senator, Mandel would favor maintaining our European military presence nowadays. He wouldn't be a vocal Trump critic like McCain or Graham, but I could see him finding a natural ally in Tom Cotton, for instance. Mandel is very instinctively hawkish.

Bleh, Mandel.

Kasich is the best candidate but I doubt he goes for it.  Endorsing Tiberi. 

Jon Husted would be a good candidate as well.

Kasich's too interested in primarying Trump, and with the coupe in the Ohio GOP ousting the Kasich wing, it's fairly unlikely Tiberi runs now. Husted's running for Governor.

Husted's running for Governor?  Is DeWine out?  Mary Taylor?

Husted, DeWine, Taylor, and Renacci all seem to be gearing up to run. DeWine is the best-funded and has the best name recognition in the field, although Renacci is capable of self-funding. I'd definitely prefer DeWine to any of the other three, as an aside, and a Renacci nomination could get me to vote for the Democrat, depending on who they nominate.

[Vosem]

Trump heavily over-performed in the industrial Midwest last year, and that will revert to at least a tangible degree or more, which will affect Republicans accordingly. Can Mandel buck that trend AND make inroads from his 2012 showing?

The answer should be clear.

Thing is that, if we're comparing this to 2012, these are areas Mandel performed really poorly in; if he can make some consistent improvements in areas that Trump won by a lot (not necessarily even to the point of winning them outright), he's made up a great deal of the distance between him and Brown. He also doesn't really have much further to fall in Hamilton/Franklin Counties. "Midwestern rural areas" are also some of the places Trump is (at least, according to polling) holding up best, and it's exactly where Mandel hopes to make easy gains.

You have to remember that in 2012 Obama was pretty popular in Ohio and Kasich was pretty much at the bottom of a trough in approvals -- hated. Something that reversed itself astonishingly quickly. But even if Trump's approval patterns stay right about where they are now, Mandel still probably improves on his 2012 performance, to something like a 1-3 point defeat.