OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[windjammer]

Well,
If OH republicans, despite their big bench,  nominate him, they would definitely screw the race.

[windjammer]

He would've been a stronger candidate, but playing the long game may be smarter because I don't see Brown running in 2024 regardless, and an open seat would be much easier.

Brown's gonna keep running until he loses which would probably take a pretty Republican year with an A-list candidate at the very least. 

You think he would have won with Clinton president?

[windjammer]

Mandel has always been totally crazy. Am I the only one not surprised?

[windjammer]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

I think it's fair to say Brown was in trouble in 2018 no matter what, given how strong the GOP has become in Ohio, but he is a relatively good fit for the state, and Mandel is trying for a rematch.  Also early polling is a bit unreliable, if the current margin (Mandel +8 or so) continues into 2018 I will change the rating of the race, but until then it remains Tossup.

Right now this race is solidly lean D.  ND, IN, MT, MO, and probably WV are all far more vulnerable (not that I expect Republicans to even win the majority of those seats, atm they're looking at picking up MO and maybe IN).  One cycle does not a permanent realignment make.  The idea that Republicans suddenly have a real shot at unseating entrenched incumbents with candidates like Lou Barletta, Kid Rock (LOL), and Josh Mandel in what is likely to be a Democratic wave midterm because "muh 2016" is laughable at best.  We have no real indication yet that 2016 wasn't just a fluke under what – and I think we can all agree on this – were incredibly unique circumstances.  And even if it did mark the beginning of a realignment, Brown, Casey, and Stabenow aren't gonna lose in 2018 (especially not the latter two).

But there is a poll showing Kid Rock leading by 9!!!!