Your completely subjective odds for the Democratic nomination in 2020

[Crumpets]

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

Warren-35%
Booker-25%
Harris-18%
Castro-8%
Newsom-7%
Gillibrand-4%
Biden-3%

Warren's in the best position to unite both wings of the Party. The animosity between the Sanders wing and the Hillary wing of the Party will not be mended by 2020; in fact I predict that it'll worsen.

[BaldEagle1991]

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%

That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

[Maxwell]

Booker - 25%
Harris - 20%
Sanders - 15%
Warren - 10%
Biden - 10%
Kanye - 5%
Franken - 3%
Gillibrand - 2%
Brown - 2%
Field - 8%
Gabbard - 0%
De Blasio - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Villarigosa - 0%
Edwards - 0%

Just by the odds, I think Booker is the most likely nominee, with Harris and Sanders not too far behind. Biden's early eagerness puts him higher than I would've normal put him, on par with Warren. I'm not going to under-estimate Kanye West, so I put him at 5%, ahead of Franken (bless his heart, one of my favorites), Gillibrand (meh, but her kind of candidacy does have precedent for winning the nomination), and Brown (not likely to run, but if he did he would be a formidable candidate).

Never gonna be the nominee - Gabbard has too many skeletons in her closet and would basically cede refugee and foreign policy to Donald Trump, De Blasio is too dumb, Cuomo is way to right-wing in the bad kind of a way locally and overall (also corrupt), Villarigosa is even dumber than De Blasio, and Edwards is way too right-wing in a mildly acceptable way if we're talking about Louisiana politics but completely unacceptable when it comes to national politics.

[Figueira]

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%

That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

I think Kanye has a shot but this isn't the main reason why.

[Devout Centrist]

Manchin - 65%
Edwards - 33%
Other - 1.9%
BRTD - .1%

[Crumpets]

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%

That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

I think Kanye has a shot but this isn't the main reason why.

Ultimately, I think Kanye has a better chance as an independent than as a Democrat, since he seems to have even less party loyalty than Trump, and the Democrats still have their superdelegates. If he makes the general, it almost certainly won't be as a Democrat, but I gave him a non-zero chance 1) to rub it in and 2) because Trump.

[Figueira]

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%

That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

I think Kanye has a shot but this isn't the main reason why.

Ultimately, I think Kanye has a better chance as an independent than as a Democrat, since he seems to have even less party loyalty than Trump, and the Democrats still have their superdelegates. If he makes the general, it almost certainly won't be as a Democrat, but I gave him a non-zero chance 1) to rub it in and 2) because Trump.

I think he could be a major force if he taps into the Sanders base, adding 1998-2002ers and some extra black voters, with chaos in the rest of the field. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.

[Crumpets]

Just to go back to and see how wrong we all are four years from now.

Here's mine:

Warren - 19%
Harris - 13%
Gabbard - 12%
Biden - 10%
Booker - 8%
Castro - 6%
Klobuchar - 5%
Brown - 5%
Gillibrand - 4%
Sanders - 3%
Franken - 2%
De Blasio - 1%
Duckworth - 1%
Bullock - 0.5%
Edwards - 0.5%
Kanye - 0.00000000000000001%
Manchin - 0%
Cuomo - 0%
Clinton - 0%
Kaine - 0%
Other/Field - 10%

That's hilarious. However don't underestimate it, Kanye could tap into the African American voter base pretty well.

I think Kanye has a shot but this isn't the main reason why.

Ultimately, I think Kanye has a better chance as an independent than as a Democrat, since he seems to have even less party loyalty than Trump, and the Democrats still have their superdelegates. If he makes the general, it almost certainly won't be as a Democrat, but I gave him a non-zero chance 1) to rub it in and 2) because Trump.

I think he could be a major force if he taps into the Sanders base, adding 1998-2002ers and some extra black voters, with chaos in the rest of the field. I don't think it's likely, but it's possible.

Wow, it's weird to think that there'll be voters in 2020 born after 9/11.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

What's Kanye's message gonna be though?

[Crumpets]

What's Kanye's message gonna be though?

"Time to take it too far now - Kanye 2020"

[Maxwell]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

[Suburbia]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

I'm gonna write a fairly lengthy post about the fracture between the Berniecrats and the Hillary coalition this weekend, but I don't think any kind of centrist will make it though the primary. If they do, it will come at a political cost for the general election.

[Maxwell]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

are all italians feisty you god damn racist

Cuomo isn't a centrist, he's a whatever will keep him in power - taking lefty stands to keep the base placated, in the background making sure that Republicans control the State Senate so that nothing ever actually gets done.  He's kind of just an asshole.

[Suburbia]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

I'm gonna write a fairly lengthy post about the fracture between the Berniecrats and the Hillary coalition this weekend, but I don't think any kind of centrist will make it though the primary. If they do, it will come at a political cost for the general election.

Have a leftist on the top of the ticket, you need a centrist VP. You can't have Marx 2.0.

[Suburbia]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

are all italians feisty you god damn racist

Cuomo isn't a centrist, he's a whatever will keep him in power - taking lefty stands to keep the base placated, in the background making sure that Republicans control the State Senate so that nothing ever actually gets done.  He's kind of just an asshole.

Most Italians are feisty, I live around them. When you drive, they say you drive fast, because it is slowing up the road.

Who in your opinion is a true centrist in the Democratic Party?

[Suburbia]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

who's mans is this

I live near NY. I see Cuomo on TV. He's feisty. He's not a person to mess around with. De Blasio knows this as well. When America gets to be introduced by him, they'll like him, Sandra Lee, and the Cuomo family. He's from Queens. Just like Trump.

[Cashew]

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

He's a saboteur in the state senate, no way progressives will tolerate him.

Who in your opinion is a true centrist in the Democratic Party?

John Bel Edwards.

[Suburbia]

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

He's a saboteur in the state senate, no way progressives will tolerate him.

Who in your opinion is a true centrist in the Democratic Party?

John Bel Edwards.

He has the money. Plus, his girlfriend is Sandra Lee. If they get married before 2020, she'll be well known anyway.

[Suburbia]

Booker - 20%
Sanders - 20%
Harris - 20%
Biden - 20%
Others - 20%

I voted for Clinton, but Cuomo, De Blasio, or Booker are the 2020 favorites. Dark horse: Van Jones.

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

"Donald Trump hates Black People"

Cuomo is a classical liberal centrist. The party better get with the program. Cuomo isn't Zell Miller for God's sake. Cuomo is the nominee, he likely beats Trump. He is an Italian. He's feisty. Trump will meet his match. Period.

I'm gonna write a fairly lengthy post about the fracture between the Berniecrats and the Hillary coalition this weekend, but I don't think any kind of centrist will make it though the primary. If they do, it will come at a political cost for the general election.

Have a leftist on the top of the ticket, you need a centrist VP. You can't have Marx 2.0.

Many of the big money Democratic donors will not be interested in funding anybody who is of Warren's ideology or to her left. These big money donors will pour millions to crush any leftist insurgency and the Bernie wing will retaliate accordingly. This cycle will play out similar to 2012 with the republicans except this time the fracture we saw with the democrats in 2016 will pale in comparison to what's about to happen.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Castro-35%
Warren-30%
Booker-15%
Biden-10%
Harris-5%
Cuomo-5%

I'm on the Castro bandwagon I think he get the old Clinton guard behind him and do slightly better with millennial than Hillary as Warren I think is getting anointed too much like Hillary in 07 or Jeb

[Maxwell]

Castro probably needs a real job before running for President.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Castro probably needs a real job before running for President.

His opponent would be the Donald the "experience" argument kinda falls flat