is Georgia polarizing on metro-outstate lines?

[freepcrusher]

I mean obviously race is the biggest factor but a secondary division seems to be the atlanta metro vs the rest of the state. Looking at old almanac of american politics - it seemed like the state's politics was more uniform than it is now. The democrats (John Flynt, Ed Jenkins) were basically all southern populists and the few republicans that existed ranged from chamber of commerce types (think johnny isakson) to ideology warriors (think ben blackburn).

But it seems there was no major disagreements within the state. Looking at the 1982 almanac of american politics it mentions that there was some thought that gingrich might be drawn out of office but that the dems in the legislature (they had around a 3-1 majority then) didn't care much for party labels.

Are we reaching a point where the atlanta metro becomes sort of a fifth column on the state?

[Inmate Trump]

GA will go Democrat in 2020 or 2024.

[Lachi]

GA will go Democrat in 2020 or 2024.

I'm going as far as to say that the next democrat to win will win GA at this point.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

It has always been that way in GA.  The only GA Governor from Atlanta, oddly enough, was Lester Maddox. 

What GA is becoming is more black.  GA now has the 2nd highest black percentage of the population of any state, with MD the third blackest (a bit of a surprise).  MS is tops, but the surprise is that SC and AL are behind GA.  Of course, most of this black growth is in metro Atlanta.  Check out the increase in the population in general, and in the percentage of the black population in Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, counties that were once the most Republican counties in GA at the Presidential level.

[Panda Express]

It has always been that way in GA.  The only GA Governor from Atlanta, oddly enough, was Lester Maddox. 

What GA is becoming is more black.  GA now has the 2nd highest black percentage of the population of any state, with MD the third blackest (a bit of a surprise).  MS is tops, but the surprise is that SC and AL are behind GA.  Of course, most of this black growth is in metro Atlanta.  Check out the increase in the population in general, and in the percentage of the black population in Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, counties that were once the most Republican counties in GA at the Presidential level.

No. Black turnout was DOWN compared to 2012 and Georgia still swung to Clinton. Gwinnett and Cobb voted for Romney and flipped to Hillary. That was due to Trump's weakness in the suburbs. It didn't matter this election but it might next election.

[ajc0918]

This is a pretty good article on Cobb County, GA flipping. It points out that the demographics of Cobb County are changing and it could effect Republicans statewide if they lose their grip. In addition to Trump losing in Cobb, the article talks about changes in downballot races:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Source: http://www.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/trump-cobb-defeat-creates-headaches-for-gop/c7aLYup4hHBpHu7biI1ypJ/

[ajc0918]

Take a look at how the 3 Atlanta metro counties that Hillary flipped have changed over the last 4 elections. Gwinnett and Henry show a huge trend that will probably continue to be favorable for Democrats.

Democrat % of vote:

Gwinnett County, GA
2004: 33.44%
2008: 44.35%
2012: 44.56%
2016: 50.20%

Henry County, GA
2004: 32.84%
2008: 45.85%
2012: 47.81%
2016: 50.38%

Cobb County, GA
2004: 37.12%
2008: 44.67%
2012: 42.83%
2016: 47.93%

Edit: I'll also look at Fayette County, GA which is in the southern part of the metro. Trump won this county by a decent margin but it is also gradually shifting toward the democrats.

Fayette County, GA
2004: 28.29%
2008: 34.17%
2012: 33.61%
2016: 37.85%

[Nym90]

The fact that Florida was called for Trump before Georgia was certainly qualified as one of the big surprises of election night.

I imagine the fact that Clinton was winning the Atlanta suburbs is what gave the networks pause as normally that would mean a Dem victory statewide. They had to at least wait to  be sure that Trump was getting enough votes downstate to make up for it.

[Gass3268]

It has always been that way in GA.  The only GA Governor from Atlanta, oddly enough, was Lester Maddox. 

What GA is becoming is more black.  GA now has the 2nd highest black percentage of the population of any state, with MD the third blackest (a bit of a surprise).  MS is tops, but the surprise is that SC and AL are behind GA.  Of course, most of this black growth is in metro Atlanta.  Check out the increase in the population in general, and in the percentage of the black population in Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, counties that were once the most Republican counties in GA at the Presidential level.

Also whites in the Atlanta area are slightly more willing to vote for Democrats than other Southern states. From 2010 census data you can actually a draw a clean majority white district centered in North DeKalb County, North-Central Fulton County, and Western Gwinnett County.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Forsyth County, which is pretty much Atlas's archetype of Exurban Sprawl McMansion Hell swung to Hillary by quite a bit, which surprised me.

Looking at the Georgia Swing Map, it looks like there were a fair number of rural whites (in GEORGIA) who voted for the Kenyan Marxist Muslim but not for Crooked Hillary. Overall, downstate rural GA swung pretty hard against her, and the decline in Black Turnout explains some but not all of this. For example, Brantley County, GA is 94% white, voted 82% for Romney in 2012 and 88% for Trump in 2016.

The challenge for Democrats is finding a candidate who doesn't cause a total collapse in the rural white vote, motivates Blacks to turn out, and is still able to do reasonably well in the suburbs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's not impossible for GA to flip, but seeing as flipping Cobb and Gwinnett wasn't enough, it's difficult to see the democratic path to victory.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

It has always been that way in GA.  The only GA Governor from Atlanta, oddly enough, was Lester Maddox. 

What GA is becoming is more black.  GA now has the 2nd highest black percentage of the population of any state, with MD the third blackest (a bit of a surprise).  MS is tops, but the surprise is that SC and AL are behind GA.  Of course, most of this black growth is in metro Atlanta.  Check out the increase in the population in general, and in the percentage of the black population in Gwinnett and Cobb Counties, counties that were once the most Republican counties in GA at the Presidential level.

Also whites in the Atlanta area are slightly more willing to vote for Democrats than other Southern states. From 2010 census data you can actually a draw a clean majority white district centered in North DeKalb County, North-Central Fulton County, and Western Gwinnett County.

I thought I said that Cobb and Gwinnett were moving to the Dems.  They WERE Republican, that's not the way it is not.  And both areas have become less white/more black, and some Hispanics have moved into these areas as well.

[Nyvin]

It's not impossible for GA to flip, but seeing as flipping Cobb and Gwinnett wasn't enough, it's difficult to see the democratic path to victory.

Improving the margins in all the metro counties....?

200k more votes is not difficult to see.

[Mike67]

Metro Atlanta is 100% different politically than the rest of the State of Georgia

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Forsyth County, which is pretty much Atlas's archetype of Exurban Sprawl McMansion Hell swung to Hillary by quite a bit, which surprised me.

Aside from politics, that type of community is paradise, not Hell.

[pppolitics]

Aside from politics, that type of community is paradise, not Hell.

Why do you have toiletPat as your username?

[hopper]

Take a look at how the 3 Atlanta metro counties that Hillary flipped have changed over the last 4 elections. Gwinnett and Henry show a huge trend that will probably continue to be favorable for Democrats.

Democrat % of vote:

Gwinnett County, GA
2004: 33.44%
2008: 44.35%
2012: 44.56%
2016: 50.20%

Henry County, GA
2004: 32.84%
2008: 45.85%
2012: 47.81%
2016: 50.38%

Cobb County, GA
2004: 37.12%
2008: 44.67%
2012: 42.83%
2016: 47.93%

Edit: I'll also look at Fayette County, GA which is in the southern part of the metro. Trump won this county by a decent margin but it is also gradually shifting toward the democrats.

Fayette County, GA
2004: 28.29%
2008: 34.17%
2012: 33.61%
2016: 37.85%

Lets see GA Demograhics:

Gwinnett County:

2010: 44% White, 2015: 40% White
         24%  Black            28% Black
         20%  Latino           21% Latino
         11%  Asian            12% Asian
           3% Other              3% Other

Cobb County:

2010:  56% White  2015:  53% White
          25%  Black             28% Black
          12%  Latino            13% Latino
            5%  Asian               5% Asian
             2% Other               3% Other

Henry County:

2010:   53% White  2015:   47% White
            37% Black              42% Black
              6% Latino               7% Latino
              3% Asian                3% Asian
              2% Other                2% Other

Fayette County:

2010:    68% White             64% White
             20% Black             23% Black
               6% Latino              7% Latino
               4% Asian               5% Asian
               2% Other               2% Other
 

[Figueira]

Is outstate really getting more Republican, or was black turnout just down this year?

[freepcrusher]

the governors race this year seemed to only accelerate this shift.

[lfromnj]

Is outstate really getting more Republican, or was black turnout just down this year?

its getting more republican due to blacks leaving the southwest district which is basically the black belt district + columbus.

[Del Tachi]

It's not impossible for GA to flip, but seeing as flipping Cobb and Gwinnett wasn't enough, it's difficult to see the democratic path to victory.

Improving the margins in all the metro counties....?

200k more votes is not difficult to see.

Especially with Metro Atlanta still growing close to 2% a year

The margins don't even have to become any more favorable to Democrats (although they probably will) if ATL keeps growing relative to out-state