OH-WPA Research (R): Mandel +1
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  OH-WPA Research (R): Mandel +1
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Author Topic: OH-WPA Research (R): Mandel +1  (Read 1640 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: December 07, 2016, 09:25:40 PM »

40% Josh Mandel (R)
39% Sherrod Brown (D, inc.)

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/806623233915179012

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/sen.-sherrod-brown-draws-first-potential-challenger/article/2609094?custom_click=rss

The survey, with margin of error of 4 percentage points, was conducted Nov. 29 to Dec. 1.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2016, 09:30:12 PM »

Interesting.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2016, 09:50:17 PM »

What'd we learn from 2016, again? That polls 2 years out from election day are highly accurate?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2016, 10:03:54 PM »

Very promising.
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Vosem
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« Reply #4 on: December 07, 2016, 10:04:24 PM »

This is about as meaningful as numbers I pull out of my ass, but WOO-HOO LET'S GO MANDEL
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: December 07, 2016, 10:15:35 PM »
« Edited: December 07, 2016, 10:21:43 PM by Silent Cal »

What'd we learn from 2016, again? That polls 2 years out from election day are highly accurate?
I suppose, but 2016 was unique...we will see if 2018 mirrors 2016 or mirrors past elections. Honestly, 2018 is just a shot in the dark until Nov 6, 2018 (election night)
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2016, 10:16:59 PM »

What'd we learn from 2016, again? That polls 2 years out from election day are highly accurate?
I suppose, but 2016 was unique...we will see if 2018 mirrors 2016 or mirrors past elections. Honestly, 2018 is just a shot in the dark until Nov 12, 2018 (election night)

Nov 6, 2018. The rule is first tuesday after the first monday of November.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2016, 10:22:01 PM »

What'd we learn from 2016, again? That polls 2 years out from election day are highly accurate?
I suppose, but 2016 was unique...we will see if 2018 mirrors 2016 or mirrors past elections. Honestly, 2018 is just a shot in the dark until Nov 12, 2018 (election night)

Nov 6, 2018. The rule is first tuesday after the first monday of November.
Whoops I thought thats what I looked up. I guess not. I fixed it.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2016, 12:40:53 AM »

Right, since early polls for the Ohio race this year proved to be super accurate. It's way too soon to be looking at polls for 2018 races.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #9 on: December 08, 2016, 08:52:27 AM »

An early poll, not to mention an R poll. I'd wait to see if mandel won the R nom for the seat.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2016, 01:38:58 PM »

Yup, guess it is time to give up on retaining Ohio due to Trump winning the state and this poll 23 months before the election. Brown should write his concession now.
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Figueira
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« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2016, 01:56:41 PM »

If Ohio is truly a toss up, I'd venture to say that the 4 Romney seats are gone (Manchin is unique enough that he isn't quite gone if he remains a Dem and runs, but that part is also uncertain) and Casey could have some problems in PA.

Senate races don't operate on a linear spectrum like that, and it's way too early to make definitive 2018 predictions.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #12 on: December 08, 2016, 04:02:41 PM »

If Ohio is truly a toss up, I'd venture to say that the 4 Romney seats are gone (Manchin is unique enough that he isn't quite gone if he remains a Dem and runs, but that part is also uncertain) and Casey could have some problems in PA.

We don't have enough data. For all we know Donelly is 1000 points ahead of generic R
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #13 on: December 08, 2016, 04:13:47 PM »

Yup, guess it is time to give up on retaining Ohio due to Trump winning the state and this poll 23 months before the election. Brown should write his concession now.
You need to stop commenting on races for a bit  if you're going to wildly unrealistic on races
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #14 on: December 08, 2016, 04:36:15 PM »

Yup, guess it is time to give up on retaining Ohio due to Trump winning the state and this poll 23 months before the election. Brown should write his concession now.
You need to stop commenting on races for a bit  if you're going to wildly unrealistic on races

No, I was being facetious. Making fun for smug overconfidence from GOP forum members and pessimism from many Democratic forum members. 

It is way to early to make confident predictions on these Senate Races. Especially in Midwestern States, you know the states that have the most swings. Even in this polarized era. Brown, McCaskill, and Donnelly could all win handily or be blanched for all we know.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: December 08, 2016, 04:41:27 PM »

FWIW, I would endorse Brown if this is the matchup.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #16 on: December 08, 2016, 09:14:59 PM »

If Ohio is truly a toss up, I'd venture to say that the 4 Romney seats are gone (Manchin is unique enough that he isn't quite gone if he remains a Dem and runs, but that part is also uncertain) and Casey could have some problems in PA.

We don't have enough data. For all we know Donelly is 1000 points ahead of generic R

lol

Sorry, I underestimated. He could be ∞ points ahead.
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