What's more likely to happen? Dems retake the House in 2018 or Trump reelection?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'd say a Trump re-election is more likely, but if Trump is deeply unpopular, I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats retake the House.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I dont think Trump will be re-elected in 2020.

The amount of change he is promising will be difficult to successfully implement.

One thing that may happen will be the Democrats moving slightly to the right and then retake the Presidency.

For example, once Australia got immigration reform under control, the left side of politics went silent.

In other words, if Trump pulls the rabbit out of the hat with successful immigration and foreign trade reforms which have successful outcomes, the Democrats wont undo them.

[Bigby]

I lean towards Trump getting re-elected, but even if he does not, it is still far more likely than the Dems winning the House again. For one, gerrymandering. Second, they refuse to change from the Pelosian course that keeps them in their current rut.

[KingSweden]

I'll go with "neither", since I don't think either of these things will happen

[The_Doctor]

Structurally and geographically, the Democrats are locked into the minority unless they can break through in some of the areas that the Republicans dominate (white suburban areas, namely), on a consistent basis.

So I'll vote for Trump being likely to win re-election more than the Democrats retake the House.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Easily The Donald.

[Frodo]

I have grown wary of underestimating Donald Trump again after he won the GOP nomination and the White House this year.  So I think it more likely he can have a successful presidency and win re-election in 2020 than for Democrats to win back the House in 2018 given the unfavorable map and demographics we have had to contend with since 2010.  

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Even if the Trump presidency proves to be a disaster, I don't see the effects as being so obvious as to enable the Democrats to retake the gerrymandered House in 2018.

[DC Al Fine]

I lean towards Trump getting re-elected, but even if he does not, it is still far more likely than the Dems winning the House again. For one, gerrymandering. Second, they refuse to change from the Pelosian course that keeps them in their current rut.

On top of that, America is a sort of natural pro-GOP gerrymander all on it's own. You can't draw a reasonable district map in most major cities without some packed 70%+ D district.

[pbrower2a]

Donald Trump is going to get away with enough to allow Republicans to keep the House in 2018. 2020? It is more likely that the Republicans will win a rigged election than a fair one.

[ApatheticAustrian]

2018 gov races determine everything.

[pbrower2a]

2018 gov races determine everything.

Indeed. Scott (FL), Walker (WI), Snyder (MI), and McCrory (NC) may have given much technical aid to the Trump campaign. They may have delivered as many as seventy electoral votes.

McCrory was defeated... and Scott, Walker, and Snyder are up or retire in 2018. Scott, Snyder, and Walker have questionable support... and they may be reaching the end of mass support for the Republicans in governors' mansions.

In 2020 the Governor of North Carolina will be no help to Donald Trump. Will Michigan have a Republican Governor in 2020? Probably not. Michigan generally trades off Parties in governors after two four-year terms; nothing suggests otherwise.  Your guess is as good as mine on whether Republicans will continue in charge in Florida and Wisconsin. Opposition tends to catch up to aging administrations.

The Republican party is consummately ruthless, and that may save the 2020 election for it. It may be in deep trouble if it loses big in 2020, especially if it is tied to corruption and violations of human rights. Dirty regimes stop at nothing to maintain power.     

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's a list of what I see as the possible targets in a very good 2018 for the Dems in the House:
CA-10
CA-25
CA-49
FL-18
FL-29
IA-01
MN-02
NE-02
NY-19
PA-08
TX-23
VA-10

That's only 12 seats.  Of course there will also be a couple more that come into possible contention thanks to retirements and/or scandals, but it's still well short of the 24 the Dems need to retake the House.  We'd have to see not merely midterm losses for the Republicans, but an electoral disaster of the likes that hasn't happened since 1974. (2010 was bad but only looks worse than 1974 because of the temporary 2008 gains. )  Could it happen? Maybe, but I doubt it. It's extremely unlikely any fiasco/scandal Trump can get himself into and be unable to shift the blame in at least in part to the previous administration would be sufficient to generate that level of anger in just two years.