This model has predicted every Presidential election from 1980 to 2016

[Make My Bank Account Great Again]

[LLR]

What an asinine society we live in

[White Trash]

That's hilarious.

[Bigby]

I'm going to Party City instead of Nate Silver for 2020 predictions.

[Inmate Trump]

There are so many dumb people in the world.

[Pericles]

We'd better mass buy Halloween masks of the Democratic candidate in 2020 then.

[BaldEagle1991]

We'd better mass buy Halloween masks of the Democratic candidate in 2020 then.

I'd volunteer as tribute, to buy them all.

[JoshPA]

We'd better mass buy Halloween masks of the Democratic candidate in 2020 then.

but then you mess the model up and we wont know who will win

[Kingpoleon]

We'd better mass buy Halloween masks of the Democratic candidate in 2020 then.

but then you mess the model up and we wont know who will win

Don't you get it?

The (((international elite businessmen))) are rigging our elections! The (((people like them))) are probably working with Russia and Trump!

[SCNCmod]

Since Eisenhower (past 60 years)... A Better Predictor... Was the Democratic Candidate under 52.5 years old?

Every Democrat elected President was Under 53 ... Every Republican elected President was Over 53.

[publicunofficial]

Better model than the stupid "7 Keys to the White House" guy that pops up every 4 years.

[JustinTimeCuber]

Better model than the stupid "7 Keys to the White House" guy that pops up every 4 years.

It's basically a simple way of guessing kinda well that happened to go 9 for 9.

[SCNCmod]

Until this year... another predictor usually mentioned with the Halloween Mask predictor... was:
Whoever wins elementary school mock elections- wins the white house (however this year bucked that stat).

[SCNCmod]

The 6 usually mentioned are:

1)  The Redskins Rule

2)  Which Side Sells More Halloween Masks

3)  The Kid Vote

4)  How Vigo County, Indiana, Votes

5)  The Summer Olympics

6)  The Oscar Connection



 

[LONG LIVE KING DONALD I]

The 6 usually mentioned are:

1)  The Redskins Rule

2)  Which Side Sells More Halloween Masks

3)  The Kid Vote

4)  How Vigo County, Indiana, Votes

5)  The Summer Olympics

6)  The Oscar Connection



 

Just boil it down to "Who's more charismatic?"

Explained 2016, 12, 08, 04, 00, 96, 92, 84, 80 all quite well.

Only questionable one would be 88 because god knows both men were boring as sh!t.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Lichtman's test is the only one I trust to be honest since it's based on scientific research not arbitrary facts.

[Lachi]

It might have shown trump ahead, but in the end, the percentage was WAY out

[cwt]

can't be a correlation... unless the mask sales are tabulated on a state by state level and then the corresponding electoral college votes are determined...

if it just aggregated total mask sales nationwide then it got it wrong as Clinton got more votes.

It's a correlation between mask sales and electoral college votes.

[SCNCmod]

Just boil it down to "Who's more charismatic?"

Very Much Agree....In General, who has the most.... combination of:  Likability/ Charm/ Charisma.

I also think you can add... Who seems less partisan (regardless of how partisan they actually are or their policies)

Reagan
HW Bush (In General...came across as having more Likability & Charm ... than Dukakis)
Clinton
W. Bush
Obama
Trump

[bouncycorn]

Wow! Crazy.. May be a deeper indicator of political subconscious orientation!

[impactreps]

http://corp.7-eleven.com/news/11-07-2012-obama-takes-7-election-victory-cup

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http://www.ocregister.com/articles/candidates-732581-race-leads.html

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It looks like 7/11 is a more accurate model of the popular vote. But we don't have enough data yet to make a conclusive decision.