Eternal Sunshine of the Democratic Mind

[The Other Castro]

Kamala (Part 2/3)

November 7th, 2018

Maine:
The open Governor race in 2018 was more than just a pickup opportunity for Democrats, but also an experiment in new electoral systems in the United States. With a new ranked voting system in place, Mainers did not have to fear spoiled ballots in voting for Independent candidates. Testing out the new mechanism were former Democratic Senate President Justin Alfond, Republican Party Chairman Rick Bennett, and Independent businessman Shawn Moody. Perhaps because of the ranked voting, Moody outperformed his polling average on election night enough to force a second round. After the first round votes were counted, Moody was eliminated due to his last place finish, and his votes were redistributed as per the rankings. Reaching the same conclusion as the first round, Alfond was elected Governor of Maine.

Round 1
Justin Alfond – 46%
Rick Bennett – 42%
Shawn Moody – 12%

Round 2
Justin Alfond – 53% (D+1)
Rick Bennett – 47%

Maryland:
Throughout the year, Maryland had appeared as a longshot for Democrats despite the state’s heavy lean towards them. Republican Governor Larry Hogan was very popular, and regularly averaged leads in the mid-teens over his Democratic opponent Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz. Though the race did somewhat tighten up near the end, it was largely ignored by the Democratic Governors Association in favor of more competitive races elsewhere, and the unlikely Governor Hogan was reelected.

Larry Hogan – 52%
Kevin Kamenetz – 44%

Massachusetts:
In a situation somewhat similar to the one in Maryland, Democrats saw unexpected difficulty in taking down a Republican in such a Democratic state. Governor Charlie Baker was also popular, and although he led Democrats in every poll, he rarely polled over 50% given the large number of undecided voters. Sensing an opportunity and determined to make the race competitive, Democrats rallied around Newton Mayor Setti Warren as soon as he jumped in. The race narrowed considerably in the final months as Warren even took the lead in some polls, but the close race was ultimately won by Governor Baker.

Charlie Baker – 50%
Setti Warren – 46%

Michigan:
Term-limited Governor Rick Snyder was leaving office with a poor job approval rating that was dropping lower by the day, and Democrats saw Michigan as a key battleground in their quest to regain power in the Midwest. Republicans were well equipped with Attorney General Bill Schuette as their nominee, but Democrats had a winning candidate themselves in former Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer. With disapproval of Snyder running rampant, and the Flint water crisis still fresh in the minds of voters, Whitmer defeated Schuette by a larger margin than expected.

Gretchen Whitmer – 51% (D+1)
Bill Schuette – 46%

Minnesota:
Chris Coleman – 49%
Matt Dean – 45%

Nebraska:
Pete Ricketts – 99%
Write-ins - 1%

Nevada:
The race for Governor in Nevada had been expected to not only be one of the most competitive elections that year, but to also have the most competitive primaries. As it turned out, both party’s primaries became dull affairs as Republicans Mark Amodei and Mark Hutchinson, and Democrat Stephen Cloobeck declined to run, leaving just Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt to face off against Democratic Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak. As Nevada political expert Jon Ralston provided commentary throughout the duration of the race, Sisolak earned healthy early voting numbers and was effectively tied with Laxalt heading into Election Day. Matching Cloobeck’s performance in the Senate race, Steve Sisolak became the first Democrat elected Governor of Nevada since 1994.

Steve Sisolak – 48% (D+1)
Adam Laxalt – 45%

New Hampshire:
Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu had been in office for less than two years, but was also running for reelection due to New Hampshire’s two year terms. In an attempt to elevate another Shaheen to higher office, Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen ran for and won the Democratic nomination. Sununu’s term had been unremarkable and he ran away from defending President Trump in an attempt to shield himself from Trump’s negative approvals. Like with former Senator Kelly Ayotte, this move doomed Sununu in The Granite State and granted Shaheen a slim plurality. The only thing that went wrong for Shaheen was when a wild, deranged man with the lettering of “Tennessee Volunteer” on his shirt attempted to attack Shaheen during her victory speech. The police tazed the man repeatedly as he confusingly yelled at her to stop climbing, kicked him repeatedly for good measure, and then removed him from the building.

Stefany Shaheen – 48% (D+1)
Chris Sununu – 46%

New Mexico:
New Mexico had been Republican since 2010 even as Obama and Clinton carried the state comfortably, but Democrats hoped that a midterm during a Republican administration would change that. Fortunately for them, Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham entered the race and quickly locked up the nomination to face Republican Lt. Governor John Sanchez. With the Democratic lean of the state finally catching up the Governorship, New Mexico flipped in one of the more confident pickups of the night.

Michelle Lujan Grisham – 53% (D+1)
John Sanchez – 47%

New York:
Andrew Cuomo – 58%
Marcus Malinaro – 39%

Ohio:
Ohio had its fair share of intraparty fighting, as seen in the Kasich/Trump proxy Chairman battle early in 2017, and later in the 2018 Republican primary for Governor. In this instance, Trump’s preferences won out as Secretary of State Jon Husted emerged victorious from the crowded primary to face Democratic Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni. Similar to previous elections, the Democratic candidate ran a surprisingly lackluster campaign in this potentially winnable state, and Ohio’s Republican status was locked for the next four years.

Jon Husted - 51%
Joe Schiavoni - 45%

[The Other Castro]

Kamala (Part 3/3)

November 7th, 2018

Oklahoma:
Todd Lamb – 55%
Scott Inman – 41%

Oregon:
Kate Brown – 53%
Knute Buehler – 42%

Pennsylvania:
Tom Wolf – 53%
Scott Wagner – 47%

Rhode Island:
In a shocking turn of events, Governor Gina Raimondo was defeated in the Democratic primary by one of her 2014 competitors Clay Pell, and decided against running as an Independent. Also running again was the 2014 Republican nominee for Governor Allan Fung, who had been leading in hypothetical match-ups against Raimondo before she lost the primary. Despite his death in 2016, a large write-in movement took place supporting Robert J. Healy of the Moderate Party. Its disproportionate impact was enough to make the race somewhat close, but still a clear win for Clay Pell nonetheless.

Clay Pell - 49%
Allan Fung - 43%
Robert J. Healy - 8%

South Carolina:
Henry McMaster – 54%
Bakari Sellers – 46%

South Dakota:
When Republican Congresswoman Kristi Noem announced that she would run for Governor, the race appeared all but decided. Though Democrats had former Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, it was the entrance of Independent Mayor of Sioux Falls Mike Huether that shook up the race. Sensing the inevitable loss and hoping to replicate the 2010 success in Alaska, Sandlin dropped out and joined forces with Mike Huether as his running mate. Though this move gave the race some outside attention and placed it occasionally on the cusp of competitiveness, Noem ended up winning the election by a margin standard for a Republican candidate in the state.

Kristi Noem – 58%
Mike Huether - 41%

Tennessee:
Diane Black – 61%
Karl Dean – 38%

Texas:
Greg Abbott – 57%
Annise Parker – 41%

Vermont:
The night was not without its occasional disappointments for Democrats, as they failed to gain the governorship in the heavily Democratic state that produced Bernie Sanders. Trying their luck with the other main candidate from 2016, Democrats nominated former State Senator Matt Dunne. The race drifted under the radar for most of the year, and ended similar to the outcome of the 2016 election.

Phil Scott - 50%
Matt Dunne - 46%

Wisconsin:
Like with Michigan, Wisconsin was a very important state for Democrats in reestablishing their presence in the Midwest. However, some warnings signs of weakness in the Wisconsin Democratic Party came up almost immediately after the 2016 elections as Democrats failed to field a candidate for an election to the Supreme Court. Though they nominated what was considered a competent competitor in State Senator Kathleen Vinehout, Democratic GOTV operations were noticeably lacking throughout the year. It didn't have the same ring to it as "three times in four years", but Governor Scott Walker could afterwards say he had been elected "four times in eight years".

Scott Walker - 51%
Kathleen Vinehout - 48%

Wyoming:
Cynthia Lummis – 63%
Ryan Greene – 31%
 
They had gained a dozen seats in the House, had a reasonable showing in the Senate, and won a whole slew of gubernatorial elections, but there was one goal that towered above it all. Democrats needed to win back the White House. The only problem now was determining the best candidate for the task of taking down Trump. In Kamala’s opinion, they needed someone fresh to Washington politics but still experienced. Someone young and approachable but highly competent and fierce. Let’s just say Kamala had someone in mind. While she had not yet picked out an exact date, the plan was to announce her candidacy during the first week of March.

Looking into the tough months ahead, Kamala was not discouraged about having to fight her fellow Democrats. That’s what their party and democracy was all about, and she thought many of her future potential competitors had their own problems anyway. Elizabeth was all banks this and Wall Street that, but wouldn’t be able to handle the other topics when it came up. Cory had already angered progressive groups early in the speculation phase of the race, and was still trying to recover. Kirsten was too at risk of being seen as a Clinton clone. And Andrew Cuomo was…well…Andrew Cuomo. She was a new face with good ideas, and ready for the wars to come.

[wjx987]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LMAO

In all seriousness though, love the update, and love this TL. Keep it up!

[MAINEiac4434]

God this is so great. Love the fourth-wall-breaking.

[Blackacre]

Wisconsin:
Like with Michigan, Wisconsin was a very important state for Democrats in reestablishing their presence in the Midwest. However, some warnings signs of weakness in the Wisconsin Democratic Party came up almost immediately after the 2016 elections as Democrats failed to field a candidate for an election to the Supreme Court. Though they nominated what was considered a competent competitor in State Senator Kathleen Vinehout, Democratic GOTV operations were noticeably lacking throughout the year. It didn't have the same ring to it as "three times in four years", but Governor Scott Walker could afterwards say he had been elected "four times in eight years".

Scott Walker - 51%
Kathleen Vinehout - 48%

NNNOOOOOOOOO

[Maxwell]

lol this is great, keep up the good work!

[America Needs R'hllor]

Loving it! I like how the field of candidates is slowly being built up.

[The Other Castro]

Thanks for the support guys! It helps keep me motivated. The pre-campaign is next.

[The Other Castro]

John

January 8th, 2019

It was an interesting day for John Hickenlooper. The end of an era, and perhaps the start of something new. He recalled his interactions with his successor earlier that morning.

“Congratulations, Governor Perlmutter,” John had said. “You’ll have my full support any time you need it.”

“Thank you very much, Governor Hickenlooper. You’ll have mine as well,” the new Governor of Colorado had replied with a hinting smile.     

It looked like the secret was out of the bag. John had a staffer file the paperwork the day before, so it was only a matter of time before the filing went through and his plans went public. He viewed his own position as very advantageous. He was a swing state Governor with executive experience, which was something that the Senators likely running couldn’t claim. He had served his state faithfully for the entirety of both of his terms, and wouldn’t be abandoning Colorado to run for President. The only problem was that people didn’t know who he was. The public knew about politicians like Warren, Booker, and Cuomo, but the name Hickenlooper barely registered.

John’s team decided that becoming the first campaign to file exploratory committee papers would be the best move. The publicity would get his name out there, and he wouldn’t have to commit to anything big just yet in case some unexpected heavyweights entered the ring. The last thing John Hickenlooper wanted was going toe to toe with someone like Joe Biden. He refreshed the FEC page again on his laptop, and this time a new document appeared. He opened it, and his future stared back at him in daunting letters:

Hickenlooper for America

[MAINEiac4434]

Can't support Hickenlooper. Name's too big to fit comfortably on a lawn sign.

Great job!

[Leinad]

Brilliant timeline, and an even better title!

[Oppo]

Keep on the good work!

[Pericles]

Can't support Hickenlooper. Name's too big to fit comfortably on a lawn sign.

Great job!

What about shortening it for the sign? Hinck 2020?

[Pericles]

Keep on the good work!

[MAINEiac4434]

Can't support Hickenlooper. Name's too big to fit comfortably on a lawn sign.

Great job!

What about shortening it for the sign? Hinck 2020?

LOOP 2020

[GoTfan]

Hinckenlooper's way to centrist for me.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hinckenlooper's way to centrist for me.

You don't #FeelTheHick?

No, I agree. He's pretty much the prototypical New Democrat.

[The Other Castro]

Joe

January 26th, 2019

As Joe Biden got off the phone with his son Hunter, he reflected on the events of the past month. The big names had made their entrances and exits, with Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton bowing out, and Donald Trump officially kicking off his re-election campaign. None of this was surprising to him or most Americans, but it had turned the media attention onto whether Joe himself would run again or pass like the other Democrats of his generation.

The former Vice President was happy with his new job and his new lifestyle, but it would be a lie to say he didn’t still have visions of himself in the Oval Office. His decision not to run in 2016 still haunted him, and he couldn’t help but feel partially responsible for Donald Trump’s victory.

Joe always imagined that he would become President someday, but he knew now that that day would not come. After 44 years in public office, his time running in elections was over. Joe began making the arrangements.

Three days later...

“...and while I will not be a candidate in this race, I can assure you that I will be here fighting for the American people every step of the way alongside our party’s nominee. Thank you all again for your encouragement and support over the past few months.”

Right before Joe wrapped up his speech, he added, “You guys happy I didn’t keep you waiting this time?” The crowd laughed. Joe missed that sound.

[Kingpoleon]

... I find California unrealistic. May I suggest you change it to Chiang, and 68-32?

[The Other Castro]

... I find California unrealistic. May I suggest you change it to Chiang, and 68-32?

Newsom beating Chiang for Governor?

[Kingpoleon]

... I find California unrealistic. May I suggest you change it to Chiang, and 68-32?

Newsom beating Chiang for Governor?

Yes. Certainly more realistic than Faulconer barely getting 38% of the vote.

[The Other Castro]

... I find California unrealistic. May I suggest you change it to Chiang, and 68-32?

Newsom beating Chiang for Governor?

Yes. Certainly more realistic than Faulconer barely getting 38% of the vote.

Well, I disagree and in the interest of the TL I'm not going to change things once posted that later don't seem to make sense.

[Blackacre]

... I find California unrealistic. May I suggest you change it to Chiang, and 68-32?

Newsom beating Chiang for Governor?

Yes. Certainly more realistic than Faulconer barely getting 38% of the vote.

Well, I disagree and in the interest of the TL I'm not going to change things once posted that later don't seem to make sense.

Fair enough, it takes a horrible TL writer to pull a stunt like that.

....

What? The joke is that I did that a few times for my 2018

[Kingpoleon]

I apologize. Rereading that, I can see that what I posted may have been seen as rude. I did not intend it that way, and I hope you can forgive me for my lack of delicate speech.

[The Other Castro]

I apologize. Rereading that, I can see that what I posted may have been seen as rude. I did not intend it that way, and I hope you can forgive me for my lack of delicate speech.

Don't worry, I didn't take it that way and I will always value input for this timeline. I try to keep things accurate and interesting to the best of my ability through judgement and research, but given my lack of omniscience there will inevitably be some things I get wrong.