Eternal Sunshine of the Democratic Mind

[Maxwell]

Interesting poll results - Hoping for a Warren-Harris knock out of Booker.

[MAINEiac4434]

#FeelTheHarris

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I love and hate how my favorite (in my lifetime) President and my favorite (present) Congressman are locked in a primary fight. I think I'd symbolically vote for Amash simply as a "keep your promises" symbol to Trump, though I'd be fine supporting either one as the nominee.

I think I'd prefer Trump overall because he's tougher on the illegal immigration related problems, but he's also taken some steps that while constitutional and perhaps presently necessary (like the travel ban) that still aren't really conducive to the broader vision of limited government.

Glad to see that only Amash is running though. I think Rubio and Cruz will tag team Trump if they get the chance, but they're such cowards that it'll take extreme circumstances to get them in. Amash is giving up a House seat and is taking a beating, but at least he's doing it. Also, I'm glad Kasich isn't running. He'd be in the same boat as Amash, only with ten more points. He's probably going to run in real life (at least of today) and I can't think of a bigger waste of space on a potential debate stage. It'd be like if Bob Dole primaries Dubya in 2004.

[The Other Castro]

Interesting poll results - Hoping for a Warren-Harris knock out of Booker.

Good things come to those who wait...or not. Stay tuned!

[The Other Castro]

Amy

January 27th, 2020

“It’s over, isn’t it?”

“Yes, Senator.”

Amy had been closely following the precinct by precinct results as they came in, but was now losing interest. It was clear she was going to lose, and lose big. The rules of the Iowa caucus made it hard for lower level candidates to perform well due to the thresholds required to win state delegate equivalents. Her polling average was at least something, but after the 15% viability threshold took its toll in the various precincts, her final result had dwindled to just over 2%. That would have been fine for Andrew Cuomo, who had abandoned Iowa weeks ago to put everything in New Hampshire, but not for Amy Klobuchar. As a Senator from the Midwest, she believed that her regional advantage would give her a boost in the first nominating contest. She had been mistaken. Amy stood by some staffer's desk where a CNN livestream was being played, and saw that the full results had been tallied.

Democratic Candidates: Delegates / Votes

Cory Booker: 21 / 33.2%

Elizabeth Warren: 14 / 31.7%

Kamala Harris: 10 /  23.2%

Martin O’Malley: 2 / 5.4%

Kirsten Gillibrand: 2 / 3.6%

Amy Klobuchar: 1 / 2.3%

Andrew Cuomo: 0 / 0.4%

Uncommitted: 0 / 0.2%

Amy also saw that Donald Trump had defeated Justin Amash by 78.6% to 21.3%, but CNN did not display the delegate counts. Perhaps they had put too much time into delegate research for the Democrats that they didn’t feel the need to do so for Republicans. Typical CNN. Amy caught a minute of Amash giving a “victory” speech with some of his endorsers from the Freedom Caucus before they switched the feed to Booker taking the stage at his own party.

Cory Booker was the big winner of the night, not just because of the momentum this could bring him but also the delegate haul. The new rules surrounding the formerly named Superdelegates had awarded him, as the winner of the state, an extra 7 delegates to what would have been just 14. There would be other, bigger states down the line where that would play a critical role, but not for Amy. It was somewhat of a paradox, in that so many women had been encouraged to run in the primaries, but the presence of such a large number may have split the vote and allowed Booker to take the first win. That, and the pundits were already talking about how Harris had gained votes at the expense of Warren and Booker, but had disproportionately benefited more from Warren defectors. Whether that was true or not, it was a narrative that Amy predicted would get a lot of airtime in the future.

“We are also learning now that former Governor Martin O’Malley will be giving a speech to his supporters tonight. Sources close to the campaign have confirmed that he will announce that he is dropping out of the race. Governor O’Malley also withdrew four years earlier after a disappointing finish in this very same contest, and it appears that history will be repeating itself.”

Amy turned away from CNN. O’Malley did better than her, but just like her it wasn’t enough. They had put everything into Iowa, but all the positive advertising in the world couldn’t beat the media’s insatiable hunger for a three person race. Well, perhaps they would get what they wanted after all. O’Malley saw the writing on the wall, and now so did she. Amy walked around the room of solemn faces, and found her campaign chairman.

“Let’s gather the staff.”

[America Needs R'hllor]

Go Harris! Disappointing that Booker won and sad to see O'Malley (who's pretty entertaining here) go, but I'm not forgeting a certain picture of Booker that might leak soon...

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

lol cnn sucks! cnn sucks!

(No seriously though, kickass update)

[Maxwell]

[Beet]

Congratulations, Senator Booker!

[MAINEiac4434]

Good job Kamala!

Booker's victory strikes me as similar to Hillary's 2016 Iowa win. Extremely close, but one the opponent really should be taking.

I now expect Liz to dominate in NH, then Nevada and SC to be Harris-Booker contests.

[Faust]

Booker should probably avoid New Hampshire, contest Nevada, and win South Carolina.   

[The Other Castro]

Kirsten

January 30th, 2020

The clock was ticking, and Kirsten knew the race was slipping away from her. Iowa had been a disappointment, and she couldn’t afford to wait it out until more favorable contests. It was do or die for her in the Granite State. From what she had heard, Andrew Cuomo’s campaign had a similar mindset regarding New Hampshire. Both candidates went into the debate that night knowing it may very well be their last.

“Senator Gillibrand, you have frequently criticized President Trump’s profanity-laced language as both a candidate and as President, but at the same time you have used similar expletives in recent weeks. Do you think you would be a better role model for America’s children than Trump?”

“Is she f**ing serious?” Kirsten Gillibrand thought to herself before answering. “Dana, I think my extensive work in Congress fighting for women and children on a daily basis can speak for itself. I can’t imagine people calling Donald Trump a role model for anyone while keeping a straight face. This is exactly why we need a change, a new face for leadership in this country. What we have right now, that’s not leadership, far from it. How can we expect America to be respected when we don’t even have respectable leaders in the White House?”

“Governor Cuomo, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Edward O’Callaghan has announced an investigation of potential corruption relating to some associates of yours. Do you think it is appropriate to stay in the race with a situation like this running in the background?"

“Excuse me but let’s get the facts straight on this before the American people are misled on the issue. There is no investigation of any kind going on related to me or any of my work as Governor. This is a sham hit job being run through the Trump campaign to take down who it knows would be its toughest competitor in November. Other candidates up here are fine men and women, and excellent politicians supporting good causes, but I have gotten things done. I have led the way for the most progressive of causes in the country as Governor of New York. Compare that to Trump, who most of the way through his first term has no accomplishments whatsoever. His only accomplishment is costing the American people their jobs and ruining the economic recovery that was starting before he took office. We need someone that can actually accomplish their campaign promises, and unlike the President I have always kept my word."

“Senator Harris, Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election in part by making large gains in the midwest, winning states that President Obama won with Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa. Do you think you, as a Western Democrat, would be the best choice to win back these states in the general election?”

“Well, I don’t think it’s that simple. This is a false choice that’s being presented, that we need a specific someone that can win back these parts of the country. For one thing, the country is an ever shifting place and nobody has any idea how certain states will vote until election day. For another, I’m not running to be President of the Midwest, just as I’m not running to be President of the West. I’m not writing off any states, because I’m running to be President of every state, of the United States. When we run a cookie cutter through the country we further the divide that’s harming society, turning red states against blue states and urban areas against rural areas. When we win back the White House, we’ll have the chance to end this divide and unite everyone.”

[The Other Castro]

Andrew

February 4th, 2020

"So what should we do with it?"

"I don’t care, destroy it, delete it, whatever. It doesn’t matter now. This was all a big waste."

Andrew Cuomo thought he had been so clever during the campaign. He had a leg up on the other candidates, in that there were lengths he was willing to go to that others couldn’t stomach. But now, with this disappointing performance in New Hampshire, there was nothing left for Andrew to do but drop out. With the end of his campaign came the end of his blackmail operations, and now nobody would ever know about Cory and Lindsey. That was fine by Andrew. His goal had never been to destroy his competitors, only to win.

He returned his gaze to the television screen, where Congressman Amash was vowing to stay in the race despite his 60 point loss. The image then changed back to the Democratic side, where one half displayed the results of the primary while the other was showing the end of Elizabeth Warren’s victory speech.

Democratic Candidates: Delegates / Votes

Elizabeth Warren: 18 (9+9) / 37.8%

Cory Booker: 6 / 24.3%

Kamala Harris: 6 / 24.0%

Andrew Cuomo: 2 / 6.7%

Kirsten Gillibrand: 1 / 5.6%

Others: 0 / 1.6%


Total Delegates:
Elizabeth Warren - 32
Cory Booker - 27
Kamala Harris - 16
Kirsten Gillibrand - 3
Andrew Cuomo - 2
Uncommitted - 3

83 delegates allocated, 2242/4483 needed for a majority.

"Governor, we should hold off on the suspension speech until tomorrow. We just got word from the Gillibrand campaign that the Senator will be withdrawing in an hour."

So that was that. With him and Gillibrand leaving, the race was now down to three. The narratives and comparisons had already taken shape. Warren was a Sanders redux, Booker was a Clinton redux, and Harris was trying to scope out the middle ground in a primary rehashing that nobody wanted to go through again. Andrew knew that that balance wouldn’t last for long, and it was only a matter of time before one of the wings collapsed in favor of the other.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Awh, I wanted to see the chaos ensuing Great update though!
Also, Lindsey?!

[The Other Castro]

Awh, I wanted to see the chaos ensuing Great update though!
Also, Lindsey?!

Thanks! Sorry for sporadic updates, busy times.

[The Other Castro]

Of course Warren is winning in NH, haha...

Btw: How did you create this image? (where Warren is projected to win NH)

I started with a picture of a projection for Sanders winning NH, and used Photoshop to replace him with a good picture of Warren (and replaced relevant text using similar fonts). Also, I hope you saw my post on the 2018 NH Governor race.

[Mr. Morden]

Well done on this timeline.  It definitely shows that you're already paying attention to the race as it's unfolding IRL in 2017, since 1) you actually picked a realistic field of candidates running, based on the clues we've gotten so far, and 2) you've picked up on the types of things the candidates talk about, such as O'Malley's "fascist" talk about Trump.

[The Other Castro]

Well done on this timeline.  It definitely shows that you're already paying attention to the race as it's unfolding IRL in 2017, since 1) you actually picked a realistic field of candidates running, based on the clues we've gotten so far, and 2) you've picked up on the types of things the candidates talk about, such as O'Malley's "fascist" talk about Trump.

Thank you! I've been trying to keep it pretty realistic, and your work on the 2020 Board has been a big help for this.

[The Other Castro]

Elizabeth

February 22nd, 2020

Elizabeth wasn't surprised by the result, but she was still disappointed nonetheless. What did she expect, with Harris running around Nevada, and Governor Sisolak and Senator Cortez Masto right behind her? It had become clear that Harris was favored in Nevada in the last days before the vote, so Booker had withdrawn to South Carolina while Elizabeth stopped by some of her more favorable Super Tuesday states in Colorado and Oklahoma.

The lines had been drawn, and the factions were falling behind their respective candidates. For Elizabeth, this meant that most of the former Sanders campaign had joined her corner. She didn’t have all of his supporters, but she had a majority of them. Cory Booker was her mirror image, in that he had the support of many former Clinton people behind him, as well as a large number of her supporters. But Kamala Harris was tricky. She was building her base out of factions within each of their factions, and combining that with something neither candidate had: The support of Obamaworld.

This made Kamala a pain for both Elizabeth and Cory, but most recently Elizabeth. Kamala Harris had arguably cost Elizabeth the Iowa Caucus, weakened her margin in New Hampshire, and had now pushed her into third in Nevada. Elizabeth hadn’t expected Kamala to last this long or perform as well as she had, and her victory in Nevada tonight brought the delegate count to a dead heat.   

Democratic Candidates: Delegates / Votes

Kamala Harris: 24 (14+10) / 38.4%

Cory Booker: 11 / 31.6%

Elizabeth Warren: 10 / 28.1%

Others: 0 / 1.9%


Total Delegates:
Elizabeth Warren - 42
Kamala Harris - 40
Cory Booker - 38
Uncommitted - 8

128 delegates allocated, 2242/4483 needed for a majority.

Elizabeth still had a slim delegate lead, but that would almost definitely disappear after South Carolina where she was polling in a distant third. Nationally, she and Booker were still deadlocked in the mid to low 30s, with Harris regularly polling just a few points behind them both. However, perceptions were everything. Booker was going to win South Carolina, but Harris leading Elizabeth by a large enough margin might push her all the way to third in the delegate count. To have that happen right before Super Tuesday, where many of the states were already difficult for her due to their Southern location, would put Elizabeth’s nomination path in jeopardy. She needed to remain a credible challenger to Booker, or her supporters might break off even further to Harris.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cory Booker and Lindsey Graham? Whoa man.

[The Other Castro]

Cory

February 22nd, 2020

“Thank you, South Carolina! Just two weeks ago, they said it couldn’t be done. That a young Mayor from one of the poorest cities in New Jersey, a Senator with a new approach couldn’t win. But we saw the people of Iowa proudly proclaim loud and clear that our time is here. Tonight, the people of South Carolina have announced that they agree! In the weeks ahead, I intend to speak with your voice, as a messenger of the people asking for much needed change, and with a determination that can win this nomination and take back the White House from Donald Trump! We have a lot of states voting on Tuesday, and there is no greater message to send to Trump than a rejection of his agenda as we stand together united under one banner. Let’s show him that the power of love is stronger than the fires of hate.”

Now if only Nevadans had thought the same, Cory would be feeling a lot better. After he won Iowa, the hard part was supposed to have been over. Elizabeth Warren certainly couldn’t win Nevada or South Carolina if she couldn’t even take Iowa, but Kamala Harris had messed that up for him. His victory tonight gave him a small delegate lead going forward, though it should have been bigger.

Democratic Candidates: Delegates / Votes

Cory Booker: 30 (24+6) / 45.1%

Kamala Harris: 17 / 32.5%

Elizabeth Warren: 12 / 21.7%

Others: 0 / 0.7%


Total Delegates:
Cory Booker - 68
Kamala Harris - 57
Elizabeth Warren - 54
Uncommitted - 8

187 delegates allocated, 2242/4483 needed for a majority.

For Cory’s reward, he was stuck in South Carolina giving a victory speech while Warren and Harris were already off campaigning in Super Tuesday states. March 3rd was right around the corner, and he was counting on some big victories to seal his status as the front-runner. This three-way race had gone on for long enough, and this was his opportunity to knock someone out of contention.

He figured Warren would take Vermont, Oklahoma, and Massachusetts, while he would walk away with Alabama and Georgia. Minnesota and Colorado had switched from caucuses to primaries and he had a chance there, or at least his advisers had told him so. The tricky states would be Virginia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, in which he was favored but not by much. His biggest worry, however, was Texas. His lead had once been solid in the delegate-rich state, but was now locked in a tie with Harris. An extended-three way could only bring trouble, and Cory would much rather build a solid lead on Tuesday.

After he had left the stage, Cory’s iPhone started to buzz. He recognized the number and quickly found a private room. Cory quickly and politely ended the call just as quickly as it had begun, reminding his caller once again that he was married now and had a son on the way. Cory’s presidential campaign had led to a lot of changes in his life, and his personal affairs were no exception. He wanted to be president, and that part of his life was long gone.

[BuckeyeNut]

Minnesota seems like a State that would be very amenable to Warren.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

What are the Super Tuesday states?

[The Other Castro]

What are the Super Tuesday states?

AL, CO, GA, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, VA, VT, and the American Samoa Caucuses.

[Da2017]

I'm rooting for Harris. I'm interested in seeing how the rest plays out.