Why did Rubio collapse and Kasich surge after Super Tuesday?
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  Why did Rubio collapse and Kasich surge after Super Tuesday?
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Author Topic: Why did Rubio collapse and Kasich surge after Super Tuesday?  (Read 2471 times)
mencken
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« on: December 08, 2016, 06:10:07 PM »
« edited: December 08, 2016, 06:13:32 PM by mencken »

I thought it was a bit odd that this happened, given that Kasich was even less viable than Rubio at the time. Was this just due to moderate Republican voters casting protest votes for their preferred candidate after their most viable candidate ceased to be viable?

Geography alone does not explain this. Compare Tennessee (Rubio 21%, Kasich 5%) and Kentucky (Rubio 16%, Kasich 14%) or Alabama (Rubio 19%, Kasich 4%) and Mississippi (Kasich 9%, Rubio 5%)
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2016, 06:35:24 PM »

Rubio did poorly, and Kasich well, in the final debate held after Super Tuesday; the terrain generally moved to areas more favorable to Kasich (like Michigan, where some polls had him ahead, and Ohio), while Rubio flailed in his home state, which reflected poorly on him. Keep in mind that conventional wisdom until well into April was that the race was headed to a convention, so people didn't mind as much voting for a candidate who hadn't done well until then.
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White Trash
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« Reply #2 on: December 08, 2016, 07:42:39 PM »

I think Rubio losing being unable to take Virginia (which seemed perfect for him) really turned a lot of voters off.
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Mike67
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2016, 08:38:12 PM »

At times in the GOP Primaries and Debates Marco Rubio looked like a completely lost puppet of Jeb Bush.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2016, 01:04:43 AM »

Rubio's and Kasich's bases were actually different groups of voters.  I would argue that most of Rubio's support funneled to Cruz in early-to-mid-March.  Then, once a lot of the conservative Rubio supporters left for Cruz, his more moderate supporters left to support the actual moderate option (once it was clear that Rubio's appeal to all Republicans strategy wouldn't work).
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Eharding
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« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2017, 02:50:03 PM »

Rubio's and Kasich's bases were actually different groups of voters.  I would argue that most of Rubio's support funneled to Cruz in early-to-mid-March.  Then, once a lot of the conservative Rubio supporters left for Cruz, his more moderate supporters left to support the actual moderate option (once it was clear that Rubio's appeal to all Republicans strategy wouldn't work).

-You can see this in North Carolina's and WI's primary.
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Deblano
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« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2017, 03:54:30 PM »

I'd say that the incident where he repeated himself during the NH debate ("let's dispel with this fiction that Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing") really damaged him and made him look like an empty suit
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uti2
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« Reply #7 on: January 16, 2017, 07:18:15 PM »

I'd say that the incident where he repeated himself during the NH debate ("let's dispel with this fiction that Obama doesn't know what he's doing. He knows exactly what he's doing") really damaged him and made him look like an empty suit

He was doing that the entire campaign trail, Christie observed him carefully and just called him out on it, rubio thought he was doing the right thing repeating himself at the time because he had been prepared and rehearsed to do a select response to an expected question.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yrID5W0y3kw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZVbhWty_X8


You can see Christie shows some begrudging respect for Cruz. But Rubio didn't just repeat it once, he did it multiple times, not only in the debate, but also in media appearances the next day as well.

This was long documented in the media:

http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10658566/marco-rubio-new-hampshire

Basically, the guy was so used to do doing this on the campaign trail that he was shook up when finally attacked on it and questioned aggressively.

Of course, if rubio had been less scripted and rehearsed in the first place, would he have done is well? Debatable. It's a double-edged sword after all, you get media soundbites with one method, but not with the other.

The point is that it was an inherent pattern characteristic to his campaigning strategy, it wasn't some impromptu remark.
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Eharding
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2017, 11:41:26 PM »

After his disastrous performance in NH, Rubio recovered strongly by the time South Carolina came around and had by far his best performance relative to Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday. It's just that his best performance still was pretty bad, with him winning only Minnesota. After Super Tuesday, everyone saw he was unable to win his home state (assuming it was more favorable to him than Georgia, but less favorable to him than Virginia), and, so, was unable to be a viable contender. Kasich, meanwhile, was visibly competitive in his home state, and ended up winning it. That's why Kasich surged and Rubio collapsed after Super Tuesday.
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blacknwhiterose
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2017, 05:32:31 PM »

Short answer... because Rubio sucks and you can only fool people for so long. 

Boom!  End of thread.
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