Will Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio challenge President Trump in 2020?

[Mike67]

Do y'all think Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio will challenge President Donald Trump for the GOP Nomination in 2020? I could see Ted Cruz challenging President Trump for the GOP Nomination in 2020 even if President Trump has a good first term in Office. I think Marco Rubio could challenge President Trump in 2020 but probably wont and he'll wait for 2024.I think Ted Cruz will still have a bitterness left toward President Trump from the 2016 GOP Primaries. I think President Trump would beat him once again easily for the GOP Nomination in 2020.

[BaldEagle1991]

They could if Donald Trump becomes unpopular, but Trump will win against those guys.

[Suburbia]

Cruz, maybe, if Trump does not enact a conservative agenda, could run by summer 2019. That is if Cruz is reelected in 2018. I still think that Trump may want to find a primary challenger against Cruz.

Rubio, probably not. If Trump loses in 2020, Rubio runs in 2024, unless he runs for governor in 2022 if a Florida Democrat wins in 2018.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Won't happen.

The last President to successfully challenge an incumbent President for his party's nomination was William Jennings Bryan in 1896.

The last President to dislodge a sitting President of his own party AND get elected was (perhaps) James Buchanan in 1856.

The important caveat in Ronald Reagan's nearly successful challenge in 1976 was that Ford was unelected; he was appointed VP and moved up.  Trump, on the other hand, has won popular support and has a base that Ford never had.  It's not certain that Reagan would have beaten Carter, either.

Ted Kennedy was the last man to challenge the renomination of a President of his own party in any kind of credible way, and he set the party back even further.  Most Democrats believe, and rightly so, that if Kennedy hadn't run in 1980, Carter would likely have been reelected, although it would have been tough.

Cruz does not have the kind of personal popularity that a Ronald Reagan or a Ted Kennedy have.  He's got a following, and he's got lot of folks in his own party that loathe him in a personal level.  If anyone's going to break the string on this one, it'll have to be someone a lot more likeable than Ted Cruz.

[Mike67]

They could if Donald Trump becomes unpopular, but Trump will win against those guys.

Having a Primary Challenger or Challengers might be pretty damaging to President Trump if he has a hard battle in the 2020 GOP Primaries.

[BaldEagle1991]

They could if Donald Trump becomes unpopular, but Trump will win against those guys.

Having a Primary Challenger or Challengers might be pretty damaging to President Trump if he has a hard battle in the 2020 GOP Primaries.

Yeah but the power of the incumbency might help in such a primary.

[Mike67]

They could if Donald Trump becomes unpopular, but Trump will win against those guys.

Having a Primary Challenger or Challengers might be pretty damaging to President Trump if he has a hard battle in the 2020 GOP Primaries.

Yeah but the power of the incumbency might help in such a primary.

Great point BaldEagle. I keep thinking about Lyndon Johnson losing to Eugene McCarthy in the 1968 New Hampshire Primary and Harry Truman losing to Estes Kefauver in the 1952 New Hampshire Primary as good examples of sitting Presidents walking into a tough challenge in the Primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

Probably not Cruz or Rubio, no.  Amash and McMullin seem more likely to run.

[LLR]

I wouldn't count out Lindsey Graham - not like he'd go anywhere, however.

[Xing]

Rubio definitely won't, and I doubt Cruz will either.

[Maxwell]

Former Senator Jeff Flake perhaps?

[Mike67]

Former Senator Jeff Flake perhaps?

Senator Mike Lee could be a distant possibility,he's a huge critic of President Trump. It would be funny to see Glenn Beck trying to glom on to Mike Lee(Glenn Beck and Mike Lee are friends) like he did to Ted Cruz.

[RINO Tom]

Former Senator Jeff Flake perhaps?

Keep dreamin'!

[7,052,770]

Cruz is going to get primaried out in 2018 if he even bothers to run for re-election. Trump has already promised to fund his primary challenger (Rick Perry maybe?), so it's over for him.

[Mike67]

Cruz is going to get primaried out in 2018 if he even bothers to run for re-election. Trump has already promised to fund his primary challenger (Rick Perry maybe?), so it's over for him.

I've read where Rick Perry is seriously thinking about running for Cruz's Senate seat.

[Vosem]

Doubt either of these guys will, but if Trump is reasonably unpopular it's easy to see a challenge come from somewhere else; Lindsey Graham especially would probably prefer to go out in a blaze of glory challenging the incumbent President than risk ignominious defeat in his own party primary. A libertarian-wing candidate -- either Amash or Paul the Younger -- is also possible.

Cruz is going to get primaried out in 2018 if he even bothers to run for re-election. Trump has already promised to fund his primary challenger (Rick Perry maybe?), so it's over for him.

I've read where Rick Perry is seriously thinking about running for Cruz's Senate seat.

Essentially all polls of Texas that have been conducted show Cruz is still broadly popular with Texas Republicans and leading all potential primary challengers. A Cruz v. Perry race would also be especially hilarious when you consider that Cruz is one of the best debaters in the Republican Party and Perry is one of the worst. Perry would go down in flames, imo -- the man Cruz should actually fear (who I still think Cruz would beat, but who would actually have a chance at toppling Cruz) is Congressman Michael McCaul.

[Volrath50]

Does anyone know how feasible it would be for a President Trump who, after hypothetically losing a primary challenge to, say, Cruz, to then run for re-election as an Independent?

[Mike67]

Does anyone know how feasible it would be for a President Trump who, after hypothetically losing a primary challenge to, say, Cruz, to then run for re-election as an Independent?

I think President Trump could do it even though it's never been done before

[Vosem]

Does anyone know how feasible it would be for a President Trump who, after hypothetically losing a primary challenge to, say, Cruz, to then run for re-election as an Independent?

To make it on the ballot in all 50 states you have to start by March at the latest -- a time when the primaries are still ongoing. To make it on in the vast majority (but not all) states, you have to start by May. Evan McMullin decided to launch a national campaign in August and made it on the ballot in 11 states.

So, this has a bit of a problem: if Cruz barely edges Trump out after a months-long fight, it will be too late for Trump to make it on the ballot in many, many states. If Cruz destroys Trump so thoroughly that Trump is eliminated from contention quickly, his third-party effort could still make it on the ballot basically everywhere -- but would it be worth it in that case?