ND-SEN: Cramer likely to run

[RogueBeaver]

Whether or not Heitkamp joins the Cabinet.

[Heisenberg]

So Cory Gardner is NRSC Chairman? I would have preferred Tillis; politically I like Gardner better but Tillis is clearly the better strategist/campaigner, as he was triaged IIRC yet still won, while Gardner won by what appeared to be an underwhelming margin. But I wish Gardner well and I know he'll still do a great job.

[jamestroll]

It will be interesting to see how this race pans out if Heitkamp decides to run for re-election and not go into Trumps cabinet. Only thing working in Heitkamp's favor is that  it is a small state were campaigning can make a huge difference and Hillary Clinton will not be in the White House.

I know its controversial on this site, but I advise against making hasty predictions 23 months before the election.

[mds32]

If Cramer runs I think he makes this a toss-up reason being he will have been a for 3-terms once this election occurs and will have served in Congress as long as Heitkemp. It'll be a tossup, whether she wants to go another round of attempting win in a state the President-elect defeated her party's candidate 62-27 is her business. If I were her I'd probably take the cabinet position.

[jamestroll]

I know its controversial on this site, but I advise against making hasty predictions 23 months before the election.

Dude, you say this in every thread. lol

Anyway, while I think that this race will be much more competitive than IN or MO (lol), it is worth noting that Cramer won his last election (this year) with 69% of the vote!

No I do not.

And what evidence do you have that McCaskill will lose by a 2 to 1 margin and Donnelly will lose by a 3 to 2 margin? We really have no idea yet.

If Cramer runs I do think ND is lean R. I am not rating any non entrenched incumbent race as likely or safe at this point.

[Xing]

He'll be trouble for Heitkamp, unless he runs a lousy campaign, of course. I still see Heitkamp as the most vulnerable Democrat, and if she tries to pull a Pryor/Landrieu and distance herself from the Democrats to the point of arguing that she's effectively not a Democrat, she'll probably only hurt herself more.

[jamestroll]

I know its controversial on this site, but I advise against making hasty predictions 23 months before the election.

Dude, you say this in every thread. lol

Anyway, while I think that this race will be much more competitive than IN or MO (lol), it is worth noting that Cramer won his last election (this year) with 69% of the vote!

No I do not.

And what evidence do you have that McCaskill will lose by a 2 to 1 margin and Donnelly will lose by a 3 to 2 margin? We really have no idea yet.

If Cramer runs I do think ND is lean R. I am not rating any non entrenched incumbent race as likely or safe at this point.

Okay.... so where did I say that McCaskill will lose "2 to 1" or that Donnelly will lose "by a 3 to 2 margin"? You're creating ridiculous strawmen. I think MO is Likely R and IN is Lean R, but all the other Romney state Democrats are in Tossup races, even ND.

Even many Republicans from Missouri think McCaskill is vastly underestimated. And she is not trying to distance herself from being a Democrat. Counterintuitively, that would hurt her if she did. It is too early in the game to rate any incumbent as a likely loss. Dynamics are going to be a little different from 2010 and 2014.

Heitkamp may have a difficult time defeating Cramer. She still won as Romney carried the state very easily, so I am not counting her out at this point. She will need to run an excellent, flawless campaign. In a state the size of North Dakota, its not impossible.

[Heisenberg]

I know its controversial on this site, but I advise against making hasty predictions 23 months before the election.

Dude, you say this in every thread. lol

Anyway, while I think that this race will be much more competitive than IN or MO (lol), it is worth noting that Cramer won his last election (this year) with 69% of the vote!

No I do not.

And what evidence do you have that McCaskill will lose by a 2 to 1 margin and Donnelly will lose by a 3 to 2 margin? We really have no idea yet.

If Cramer runs I do think ND is lean R. I am not rating any non entrenched incumbent race as likely or safe at this point.

Okay.... so where did I say that McCaskill will lose "2 to 1" or that Donnelly will lose "by a 3 to 2 margin"? You're creating ridiculous strawmen. I think MO is Likely R and IN is Lean R, but all the other Romney state Democrats are in Tossup races, even ND.

Even many Republicans from Missouri think McCaskill is vastly underestimated. And she is not trying to distance herself from being a Democrat. Counterintuitively, that would hurt her if she did. It is too early in the game to rate any incumbent as a likely loss. Dynamics are going to be a little different from 2010 and 2014.

Heitkamp may have a difficult time defeating Cramer. She still won as Romney carried the state very easily, so I am not counting her out at this point. She will need to run an excellent, flawless campaign. In a state the size of North Dakota, its not impossible.

Won by 0.9%. But she still outperformed Mittens by double digits, while Cramer did really really well this year.
At this point, all I can say is

[Vosem]

Literally hate this guy (tried to pull for Trump in a Cruz-favoring state during a Cruz peak in the polls). Obviously I don't live in North Dakota, but if I did I'd back close to anyone against him in a Republican primary, and I'd vote for a reasonable conservative Democrat like Heitkamp against him in a heartbeat.

[moderatevoter]

So Cory Gardner is NRSC Chairman? I would have preferred Tillis; politically I like Gardner better but Tillis is clearly the better strategist/campaigner, as he was triaged IIRC yet still won, while Gardner won by what appeared to be an underwhelming margin. But I wish Gardner well and I know he'll still do a great job.

No? Tillis was never triaged. National Republican groups, like the NRSC, dropped $6M in the last few weeks to put Tillis over the top.

North Carolina, especially in a midterm, is much more favorable for Republicans than Colorado. The fact that race was tight says a lot about Tillis as a candidate and his campaign.

[Vega]

George B. Sinner should run for his House seat.

[Heisenberg]

Literally hate this guy (tried to pull for Trump in a Cruz-favoring state during a Cruz peak in the polls). Obviously I don't live in North Dakota, but if I did I'd back close to anyone against him in a Republican primary, and I'd vote for a reasonable conservative Democrat like Heitkamp against him in a heartbeat.

You'd probably like Rick Becker: He's a hardline fiscal libertarian who is pro choice and pro drugs. Sounds like your kind of guy.

North Dakota Republicans have also been known for dumping the GOP Convention's endorsed candidate for someone else in the primary: Of course Cramer did that in 2012, and of course we all remember when Doug Burgum pulled the upset in the primary. So Becker might run and upset Cramer, but I think that would piss away the seat and I would vote for Heitkamp in that case.

[Heisenberg]

So Cory Gardner is NRSC Chairman? I would have preferred Tillis; politically I like Gardner better but Tillis is clearly the better strategist/campaigner, as he was triaged IIRC yet still won, while Gardner won by what appeared to be an underwhelming margin. But I wish Gardner well and I know he'll still do a great job.

No? Tillis was never triaged. National Republican groups, like the NRSC, dropped $6M in the last few weeks to put Tillis over the top.

North Carolina, especially in a midterm, is much more favorable for Republicans than Colorado. The fact that race was tight says a lot about Tillis as a candidate and his campaign.

Never mind, my apologies. I just remember most people, going into election night, viewed Hagan as the favorite and seem to recall many describing Tillis's win as an upset. Plus I thought I read somewhere that he stopped getting NRSC cash in August. I was mistaken, then.

Rob Portman would have been better than Tillis and Garnder combined, IMO.

[Figueira]

Yeah, this is the one I'm most pessimistic about. I have it as Lean R for now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So Cory Gardner is NRSC Chairman? I would have preferred Tillis; politically I like Gardner better but Tillis is clearly the better strategist/campaigner, as he was triaged IIRC yet still won, while Gardner won by what appeared to be an underwhelming margin. But I wish Gardner well and I know he'll still do a great job.

No? Tillis was never triaged. National Republican groups, like the NRSC, dropped $6M in the last few weeks to put Tillis over the top.

North Carolina, especially in a midterm, is much more favorable for Republicans than Colorado. The fact that race was tight says a lot about Tillis as a candidate and his campaign.

Never mind, my apologies. I just remember most people, going into election night, viewed Hagan as the favorite and seem to recall many describing Tillis's win as an upset. Plus I thought I read somewhere that he stopped getting NRSC cash in August. I was mistaken, then.

Rob Portman would have been better than Tillis and Garnder combined, IMO.

Hagan had about an eight point lead a month out. Tillis tightened the race after that, but Hagan maintained about a one point lead in election day, and so people predicted that she had run out the clock and would barely survive.

Ultimately, Tillis is lucky the election was held when it was. Had it been held even half a week earlier, Hagan would have won.

[moderatevoter]

So Cory Gardner is NRSC Chairman? I would have preferred Tillis; politically I like Gardner better but Tillis is clearly the better strategist/campaigner, as he was triaged IIRC yet still won, while Gardner won by what appeared to be an underwhelming margin. But I wish Gardner well and I know he'll still do a great job.

No? Tillis was never triaged. National Republican groups, like the NRSC, dropped $6M in the last few weeks to put Tillis over the top.

North Carolina, especially in a midterm, is much more favorable for Republicans than Colorado. The fact that race was tight says a lot about Tillis as a candidate and his campaign.

Never mind, my apologies. I just remember most people, going into election night, viewed Hagan as the favorite and seem to recall many describing Tillis's win as an upset. Plus I thought I read somewhere that he stopped getting NRSC cash in August. I was mistaken, then.

Rob Portman would have been better than Tillis and Garnder combined, IMO.

Hagan had about an eight point lead a month out. Tillis tightened the race after that, but Hagan maintained about a one point lead in election day, and so people predicted that she had run out the clock and would barely survive.

Ultimately, Tillis is lucky the election was held when it was. Had it been held even half a week earlier, Hagan would have won.

The trajectory of that race sort of matches this year's presidential race. Tillis's numbers bobbed up and down, especially when the controversial legislature was in session, but Hagan's numbers rarely exceeded 46-47%.

[SATW]

Cramer would make an excellent Senator. Has my support 100%.

[MT Treasurer]

and I'd vote for a reasonable conservative Democrat like Heitkamp against him in a heartbeat.

Except that Heitkamp is not a conservative Democrat.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

and I'd vote for a reasonable conservative Democrat like Heitkamp against him in a heartbeat.

Except that Heitkamp is not a conservative Democrat.

I was disappointed at her refusal to sign on to an attempted late term abortion ban a while back, something she said she would support in her campaign, but I do need to take a more through look at her political views before deciding whether I can endorse her.

[Vosem]

So... is there any Democrat in ND who could make a special election against Cramer competitive?

Joel Heitkamp, perhaps?

[RFayette]

Cramer would make an excellent Senator. Has my support 100%.

[Heisenberg]

So... is there any Democrat in ND who could make a special election against Cramer competitive?

Many Democrats who represented R-leaning districts in the legislature were defeated. Though I think a handful survived. Maybe one of those? Or Earl Pomeroy?

[krazen1211]

Great news! All aboard the Trump train!

Link

Trump reportedly will name US Sen Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) as Agriculture Secretary. Under ND law, a special election will be held for seat.

[Kingpoleon]

So Cory Gardner is NRSC Chairman? I would have preferred Tillis; politically I like Gardner better but Tillis is clearly the better strategist/campaigner, as he was triaged IIRC yet still won, while Gardner won by what appeared to be an underwhelming margin. But I wish Gardner well and I know he'll still do a great job.

Gardner was R+2.5 in the RCP average, and he won by 2.0.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would make a guess that she has polling against Cramer and if she says yes to being in Trump's cabinet, that will likely indicate what those polls are showing.