Early voting data for LA runoff: hope for campbell?

[Matty]

[Young Conservative]

No, this is absolutely abysmal for Cambell. A lot of Democrats in Louisiana no longer vote for Democrats. Compare 2014 to 2016 and you see how large a margin the Republican won then and can use it to predict the margin for 2016, which based on this, will almost certainly be bigger.

[Heisenberg]

It's more Republican than 2014 (a red apples to green apples comparison, two federal races, but different years and circumstances). Statewide, Democrats still have a comfortable registration "advantage," but many are Blue Dog Dixiecrats who no longer vote for Democrats at the federal level.

[Xing]

Probably means a 15-20 point win for Kennedy.

[Miles]

I'm feeling pessimistic. Would be disappointed but not surprised if its 60/40 for Kennedy.

[MT Treasurer]

My prediction is still 58/42 Kennedy, because Democrats tend to do better than expected in LA runoffs for some reason.

[Heisenberg]

I'm feeling pessimistic. Would be disappointed but not surprised if its 60/40 for Kennedy.

Miles, is Black turnout usually higher on runoff day or in midterms? It is down this year compared to two years ago.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for LA Senate runoff:

62.3% R
37.7% D

[Miles]

I'm feeling pessimistic. Would be disappointed but not surprised if its 60/40 for Kennedy.

Miles, is Black turnout usually higher on runoff day or in midterms? It is down this year compared to two years ago.

Earlier is usually better. The numbers we're seeing are on par with 2010.

[Pandaguineapig]

I could see Kennedy getting over 60%. Black Turnout is abysmal and more than likely to get worse on election day

[zorkpolitics]

So far Kennedy 63% Campbell 37% with 85% in

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at the establishment hacks who said that the money for recounts should have gone to this race instead. The Democrat could have had a billion dollars and still lost.