Romney/Clinton and Obama12/Trump CDs

[nclib]

These appear to be the ones that are confirmed:

Romney/Clinton R->D

AZ-2 (McSally - R)
CA-25 (Knight - R)
CA-39 (Royce - R)
CA-45 (Walters - R)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher - R)
CA-49 (Issa - R)
IL-6 (Roskam - R)
KS-3 (Yoder - R)
TX-7 (Culberson - R)
TX-23 (Hurd - R)
TX-32 (Sessions - R)
VA-10 (Comstock - R)


Obama 12/Trump D->R

IL-12 (Bost - R)
IL-17 (Bustos - D)
IA-1 (Blum - R)
IA-2 (Loebsack - D)
IA-3 (D. Young - R)
MN-1 (Walz - D)
MN-2 (Lewis - R)
MN-8 (Nolan - D)
ME-2 (Poliquin - R)
NV-3 (Rosen - D)
NJ-3 (MacArthur - R)
NY-2 (P. King - R)
NY-3 (Suozzi - D)

[JerryArkansas]

You forgot NY 1, 18, 19 and 21.

[nclib]

I hadn't seen them listed.

[Vosem]

John Delaney's district is amazingly Obama/Trump

[/]

McSally is an R.

[JerryArkansas]

I hadn't seen them listed.

The county map for 18 19 and 21 give it away that Trump won them.  The first was calculated somewhere on here to be a Trump district as well.

[Heisenberg]

Erik Paulsen (R-MN-03) is in an Romney/Clinton district, I think. PA-17 (Cartwright) is Obama/Trump.

[publicunofficial]

Erik Paulsen (R-MN-03) is in an Romney/Clinton district, I think. PA-17 (Cartwright) is Obama/Trump.

Obama carried MN-03 in 2012, by a thin margin.

[Mr.Phips]

John Delaney's district is amazingly Obama/Trump

No way. 

[Coolface Sock #42069]

IL-6 went to Clinton... ouch. This should be double-digit Republican territory. Really epitomizes the Trump implosion in the suburbs this year.

[nclib]

Final:

Romney/Clinton R->D

AZ-2 (McSally - R)
CA-25 (Knight - R)
CA-39 (Royce - R)
CA-45 (Walters - R)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher - R)
CA-49 (Issa - R)
IL-6 (Roskam - R)
KS-3 (Yoder - R)
NJ-7 (Lance - R)
PA-6 (Costello - R)
PA-7 (Meehan - R)
TX-7 (Culberson - R)
TX-23 (Hurd - R)
TX-32 (Sessions - R)
VA-10 (Comstock - R)


Obama 12/Trump D->R

IL-12 (Bost - R)
IL-17 (Bustos - D)
IA-1 (Blum - R)
IA-2 (Loebsack - D)
IA-3 (D. Young - R)
ME-2 (Poliquin - R)
MN-1 (Walz - D)
MN-2 (Lewis - R)
MN-8 (Nolan - D)
NV-3 (Rosen - D)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter - D)
NJ-2 (LoBiondo - R)
NJ-3 (MacArthur - R)
NY-1 (Zeldin - R)
NY-2 (P. King - R)
NY-11 (Donovan - R)
NY-18 (S. P. Maloney - D)
NY-19 (Faso - R)
NY-21 (Stefanik - R)
PA-17 (Cartwright - D)
WI-3 (Kind - D)

[nclib]

Final:

Romney/Clinton R->D

AZ-2 (McSally - R)
CA-25 (Knight - R)
CA-39 (Royce - R)
CA-45 (Walters - R)
CA-48 (Rohrabacher - R)
CA-49 (Issa - R)
IL-6 (Roskam - R)
KS-3 (Yoder - R)
NJ-7 (Lance - R)
PA-6 (Costello - R)
PA-7 (Meehan - R)
TX-7 (Culberson - R)
TX-23 (Hurd - R)
TX-32 (Sessions - R)
VA-10 (Comstock - R)


Obama 12/Trump D->R

IL-12 (Bost - R)
IL-17 (Bustos - D)
IA-1 (Blum - R)
IA-2 (Loebsack - D)
IA-3 (D. Young - R)
ME-2 (Poliquin - R)
MN-1 (Walz - D)
MN-2 (Lewis - R)
MN-8 (Nolan - D)
NV-3 (Rosen - D)
NH-1 (Shea-Porter - D)
NJ-2 (LoBiondo - R)
NJ-3 (MacArthur - R)
NY-1 (Zeldin - R)
NY-2 (P. King - R)
NY-11 (Donovan - R)
NY-18 (S. P. Maloney - D)
NY-19 (Faso - R)
NY-21 (Stefanik - R)
PA-17 (Cartwright - D)
WI-3 (Kind - D)

So 15 Romney/Clinton CDs and 21 Obama/Romney CDs. Net loss of 6, which isn't terrible considering how much better in EVs and a bit better in the PV Trump did.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Did Obama really win NY-11 in 2012?  I thought that was a Safe R district and was treated as such even in the 2015 special election?

[Heisenberg]

Did Obama really win NY-11 in 2012?  I thought that was a Safe R district and was treated as such even in the 2015 special election?

Yeah. Obama won it by 5, IIRC. He won Staten Island by a few points and the Brooklyn portion by more (it's quite significantly to the left of Staten Island). It's probably largely a result of Hurricane Sandy "rally around the President" more than ideological support for him, though. Look at the other districts in the NYC metro where Obama did significantly better than Clinton. NYC is basically one of the only major metros in the country that swung to Trump.

How did Trump do in the Brooklyn part of NY-11? I thought it was considered a decent political match to Staten Island?

[Mr.Phips]

Did Obama really win NY-11 in 2012?  I thought that was a Safe R district and was treated as such even in the 2015 special election?

Yeah. Obama won it by 5, IIRC. He won Staten Island by a few points and the Brooklyn portion by more (it's quite significantly to the left of Staten Island). It's probably largely a result of Hurricane Sandy "rally around the President" more than ideological support for him, though. Look at the other districts in the NYC metro where Obama did significantly better than Clinton. NYC is basically one of the only major metros in the country that swung to Trump.

How did Trump do in the Brooklyn part of NY-11? I thought it was considered a decent political match to Staten Island?

Trump likely lost it by a decent margin.  Bay Ridge, Bensonhurst, and Dyker Heights are substantially less white than Staten Island.