2016 election results, no Electoral College majority
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2016 election results, no Electoral College majority
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Author Topic: 2016 election results, no Electoral College majority  (Read 973 times)
Lincoln Republican
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« on: December 10, 2016, 01:40:13 PM »

This is the 2016 election result.

How does the House of Representatives vote to decide the election?

Please discuss.



Donald Trump/Mike Pence          268
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine            226
Evan McMullin/Mindy Finn            44
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Mike67
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« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2016, 01:44:23 PM »

I think the House would have voted for Donald Trump in that scenario. It could have been really close however.
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Bigby
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« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2016, 02:18:54 PM »

How does Trump not crater if the entire GOP West votes for McMuffin?
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2016, 03:49:15 PM »

How does Trump not crater if the entire GOP West votes for McMuffin?

That's not the scenario and that's not the question.

That's why this is in the What-IF section.

In the What-IF section, anything is possible.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2016, 05:03:11 PM »

Chaos. Assuming Clinton still wins the popular vote by a fair margin, the House probably elects Trump and millions protest (or riot), seeing as it would make the results seem mmuch less legitimate. Or the House elects McMullin as a compromise choice.
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Mike67
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« Reply #5 on: December 10, 2016, 06:00:48 PM »

Chaos. Assuming Clinton still wins the popular vote by a fair margin, the House probably elects Trump and millions protest (or riot), seeing as it would make the results seem mmuch less legitimate. Or the House elects McMullin as a compromise choice.

Or Mike Pence
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #6 on: December 10, 2016, 06:27:47 PM »

Chaos. Assuming Clinton still wins the popular vote by a fair margin, the House probably elects Trump and millions protest (or riot), seeing as it would make the results seem mmuch less legitimate. Or the House elects McMullin as a compromise choice.

Or Mike Pence
The only person liberals hate more than Donald Trump is Mike Pence.

Bernie would have a better chance of being the compromise candidate.
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Vosem
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2016, 06:36:20 PM »
« Edited: December 10, 2016, 06:39:43 PM by Vosem »

Even with the real-life House results, there are too many anti-Trump conservatives in the House for him to actually triumph in a House vote. If most of the west voted against Trump outright, he would have no chance. Assuming Republicans still hold the Senate (looking at eastern results that seems certain), Pence is elected Vice President and then becomes Acting President when the House fails to elect anyone. The House loses its mandate when it goes on recess, which it eventually would, so Pence loses the "Acting" a couple months into his term.

Effectively, Mike Pence becomes President. He would have to appoint a VP, who would be subject to Senate confirmation (so, not Trump). I don't know who that person might be.

Chaos. Assuming Clinton still wins the popular vote by a fair margin, the House probably elects Trump and millions protest (or riot), seeing as it would make the results seem mmuch less legitimate. Or the House elects McMullin as a compromise choice.

Or Mike Pence
The only person liberals hate more than Donald Trump is Mike Pence.

Bernie would have a better chance of being the compromise candidate.

There's no compromise. The House gets to vote between the top three finishers in the Electoral College (Trump, Clinton, and McMullin in this scenario) and no one else. Keep in mind that delegations vote, not House members, and an absolute majority rather than a plurality of the delegation is necessary to get that delegation's vote. Utah has 1 vote (presumably for McMullin), California has 1 vote (presumably for Clinton), Alabama has 1 vote (presumably for Trump). That's how this works.

If the House doesn't elect anyone, the Senate elects a VP; they pick from the top two finishers (so, just Pence and Kaine; Finn would not be an option). Pence would almost certainly win and then become President when that position is vacant. He doesn't need a single Democratic vote. Also, keep in mind Democrats+anti-Trump Republicans is enough to block a Trump majority of delegations, but it isn't a majority of delegations on its own (due to states where Trump has exactly 50% of the delegation, like Idaho or Maine); Democrats cannot strategically back McMullin to prevent a Pence Presidency. Of course, in the event that McMullin sweeps most of the west, maybe people like Zinke or Cheney could be persuaded to back him, and then he wins, but that's a bit of a far-out scenario.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2016, 02:05:52 PM »

Even with the real-life House results, there are too many anti-Trump conservatives in the House for him to actually triumph in a House vote. If most of the west voted against Trump outright, he would have no chance. Assuming Republicans still hold the Senate (looking at eastern results that seems certain), Pence is elected Vice President and then becomes Acting President when the House fails to elect anyone. The House loses its mandate when it goes on recess, which it eventually would, so Pence loses the "Acting" a couple months into his term.

Effectively, Mike Pence becomes President. He would have to appoint a VP, who would be subject to Senate confirmation (so, not Trump). I don't know who that person might be.

Or in other words- absolute chaos Wink
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