How exactly can Kanye West win the Democratic nomination?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm asking for an actual path to victory for him, not just "But Trump" or "muh black vote/muh Millennials". There's many issues those don't cover:

-Trump didn't just go from being an eccentric reality TV host to a presidential candidate in one swoop. He had been an activist in some right wing causes since Obama's first term, first when he started the Birther crap, and had spoken before CPAC and some anti-immigration groups. Kanye West better become an activist pretty fast to start a following.

-For that matter everything I've ever heard from him in regards to politics is barely coherent. Trump says stupid stuff, but it's the stuff his base wants to hear. Kanye West's political talk sounds like some sage troll on an internet message board. This is a guy whose most profound political statement is "George Bush doesn't care about black people."

-The nomination systems are very different. Superdelegates, PR apportionment and the many different demographic groups in the Democratic primary mean that Trump would've likely not won the nomination based on the same rules. Kanye already has almost all superdelegates out of reach, can't pull off things like winning all of South Carolina's delegates with one third of the vote like Trump did, and is going to have to have crossfactional appeal to many different types of Democratic voters.

-Also remember that Trump was facing the most pathetic batch of candidates in decades, and used this to his advantage by lifting himself by ravaging them at the debates. If Sanders runs again, he'll be against an already proven heavyweight campaigner who won't play Jeb to his Trump at the debates. Same with Biden if all his hinting is true. Even if a Jeb equivalent ends up in the running, I don't forsee Kanye West becoming an attack dog able to cannibalize him like Trump did. More than likely he'll end looking Marco Rubio trying to dispense with this fiction on the receiving end of attacks

-And for that matter assuming the black vote will vote in bloc for him like they did for Obama and Hillary is ridiculous. It didn't happen with Al Sharpton in 2004 and didn't happen to that level for any black candidates in the past. Even Obama had to work on consolidating the black vote before the primaries started. Something tells me that the 65+ black demographic that voted ~95% for Hillary in some states isn't going to be rushing toward Kanye West to that degree. And those are the key drivers of the black vote, not black Millennials. All of this too is even assuming that no other black candidate runs even with buzz about people like Corey Booker and Kamala Harris.

-And obviously, the black vote is not going to win him Iowa or New Hampshire. He could win every single black voter in those states and still fail to break the 15% threshold easily.

-Now as for other Millennials, most don't give a sh!t about him. Most of his fans are Millennials does not mean the inverse of most Millennials are his fans to be true.

-If Sanders runs again, a Millennial powerhouse with a huge following already will be running. I know Atlas is full of socially inept nerds who tend to regard fellow Millennials with disdain and think they value celebrity above everything, but the reason this 70something white haired guy got such a following is he spoke to the issues Millennials care about. So did Obama too to a large extent in 2008, I know this because I was one of his textbook young cult followers. Kanye West is known for his activism that appeals to Millennials on...uh...

-The sort of people who ARE likely to think "OMG CELEBRITY!" and vote based on that, especially amongst Millennials, aren't likely to vote in the first place.

-And of course there's the fact that Trump could very well inspire a backlash against celebrity candidates, especially amongst Democrats. I can already see the talking points people make about how we shouldn't stoop to their level and nominate a celebrity joke like the Republicans did.

It was in the middle but bears repeating...how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire? Actually the question could easily be how does he break 15% and win delegates from Iowa or New Hampshire because faced with all the above and the demographics of those states (clearly not places where muh blacks and muh Millennials can carry someone to victory), even that is unlikely.

[White Trash]

I rarely agree with you, but this is a very solid assessment. The logic behind Kanye possibly taking the nomination doesn't really add up when given any examination. First off, the Black vote isn't a given to a candidate because their Black. In order to win the Black vote in droves (especially in the South) you need the backing of church leadership, which is something I have serious doubts that a man who claims to be the second coming Christ will be able to gain.

Obama was able to get church leadership consolidated around him, thus netting him the southern Black vote.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

He can't win.

He won't try.

He's nuts.

He's a jerk.

I can't believe this is being taken seriously by serious folks.

If he is nominated, he'll only carry DC, and even there, the Republican may get 30%.

[Figueira]

I agree that it is very unlikely that he will win the nomination for the reasons stated here by BRTD, but I don't think that Democrats should just say "Nope, Kanye can't win, let's ignore him!" If he runs we may need to actually work to beat him.

[Xing]

I'll sum it up in one word: anger. If anger boils over on the left, they'll want a way of giving the middle finger to the DNC first, then the right. It's not just black millennials. I could see lots of young people going for him if he talks a tough enough talk.

Granted, that wouldn't be enough for him to beat another candidate one-on-one, but Democrats will probably be lining up to take on Trump, so the establishment/not green tea party vote could get split between a ton of candidates, which might make Kanye's base the biggest. I could also see Kanye as having the most enthusiastic supporters, which would help him in caucuses (assuming that those still exist in 2020). Yes, Democratic super delegates would rather sell their soul to the devil than get behind Kanye, but they'd need to get behind one other candidate en masse, rather than being split among several.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it would be foolish not to take his bid at least somewhat seriously, and try to get behind someone else before it's too late. Never underestimate the ability of people to make irrational decisions when they're angry. Case in point, the 2016 election.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Um, Trump won because this Republican field was SO deep that they split the vote, not the other way around.  This is just like when people say that the SEC isn't great because we have teams with more losses than some from other conferences; but, we really have so many great teams that we beat up on each other (and therefore wind up with more losses).

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'll sum it up in one word: anger. If anger boils over on the left, they'll want a way of giving the middle finger to the DNC first, then the right. It's not just black millennials. I could see lots of young people going for him if he talks a tough enough talk.

Granted, that wouldn't be enough for him to beat another candidate one-on-one, but Democrats will probably be lining up to take on Trump, so the establishment/not green tea party vote could get split between a ton of candidates, which might make Kanye's base the biggest. I could also see Kanye as having the most enthusiastic supporters, which would help him in caucuses (assuming that those still exist in 2020). Yes, Democratic super delegates would rather sell their soul to the devil than get behind Kanye, but they'd need to get behind one other candidate en masse, rather than being split among several.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it would be foolish not to take his bid at least somewhat seriously, and try to get behind someone else before it's too late. Never underestimate the ability of people to make irrational decisions when they're angry. Case in point, the 2016 election.

Well I'd say that the main beneficiary of anger against Trump likely wouldn't be a guy who admitted he didn't vote and said he would've voted for Trump if he did.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Um, Trump won because this Republican field was SO deep that they split the vote, not the other way around.  This is just like when people say that the SEC isn't great because we have teams with more losses than some from other conferences; but, we really have so many great teams that we beat up on each other (and therefore wind up with more losses).

Total myth, the SEC is overrated and the 2014 bowl season proves it

[LLR]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

[they don't love you like i love you]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

What Democrats have to be concerned about is Kanye West being a guy who gets to "hang around" in the Jesse Jackson/Al Sharpton mode.  Jackson and Sharpton are guys who can't shut up, take blatantly hostile positions and postures toward white voters, and loudly demand "a seat at the table" and threaten to claim victimstance if their "demands" are denied.

Jackson and Sharpton are obstacles for the Democrats to overcome, even now.  I have often wonder if either of these guys are GOP plants; they hinder the Democrats more than help them.  They are shakedown artists and blackmailers, and the Democratic Party loses standing with ordinary voters when they give in and treat Al Sharpton as if he's worthy of the Presidency.  Jackson's one thing; Sharpton's a scam artist who needed to be told to leave and not come back by the Democrats years ago.  Perhaps with Kanye West (if he's really "running"), the Democrats can finally get it right on blackmailers and shakedown artists.

[LLR]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

I'm indicating that it would be difficult for him to build a winning coalition and that we have no idea. Anyway, my actual thoughts.

-Among the first four states, NH and SC are the only ones he has a chance of. He could possibly win Southern NH by enough to cancel out the northern parts of the state, and get a small plurality there. Then, momentum would get him a decent-sized SC win. This leads to this sort of map:

Kirsten Gilibrand
Kamala Harris
Kanye West
Sherrod Brown

So Kanye wins on a black-young coalition by being Bernie with appeal to African-Americans, I guess.

[Wells]

His chances fell from 0.001% to 0% after he said he was a Trump supporter. So no, he doesn't.

[progressive85]

Kanye West isn't going to run.  I don't even think he'd win over anyone in the African-American community.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm trying to imagine what kind of people would even sign on to manage his campaign.  Would he even be able to hire people who know the system well enough to deal with ballot access issues in the primaries?

Also, it would be fun to see him up on the debate stage with all the "normal" candidates, but I don't really see that ever happening.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

I'm indicating that it would be difficult for him to build a winning coalition and that we have no idea. Anyway, my actual thoughts.

-Among the first four states, NH and SC are the only ones he has a chance of. He could possibly win Southern NH by enough to cancel out the northern parts of the state, and get a small plurality there. Then, momentum would get him a decent-sized SC win. This leads to this sort of map:

Kirsten Gilibrand
Kamala Harris
Kanye West
Sherrod Brown

So Kanye wins on a black-young coalition by being Bernie with appeal to African-Americans, I guess.

Oh yeah I can totally see Kanye West winning the Dakotas, Montana, Maine, Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas.

And why would he be appealing in the white flight Boston exurbia region that is southern NH?

[they don't love you like i love you]

So far the reasonings given are:

-Variations on "But Trump" or "blacks and Millennials"
-Speculation that people will be so angry at Trump they'll respond by nominating a guy who effectively endorsed Trump.
-A primary map that indicates that Kanye West is going to be particularly strong amongst rural Great Plains voters.

So...anything else?

[Eraserhead]

1. He gleefully admitted that he couldn't even be bothered to vote in 2016.
2. If he had actually bothered, he says he would have voted for Trump.

Campaign over.

Hopefully.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm trying to imagine what kind of people would even sign on to manage his campaign.  Would he even be able to hire people who know the system well enough to deal with ballot access issues in the primaries?

Also, it would be fun to see him up on the debate stage with all the "normal" candidates, but I don't really see that ever happening.

This reminded me of another point: fundraising. Obama in 2008 and Sanders were able to effectively raise a large war chest on tons of small donations because people believed in their messages. Is Kanye West going to be able to do this? I guess he could self fund, but how much of his money would be willing to sink into a vanity campaign?

[Crumpets]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

I'm indicating that it would be difficult for him to build a winning coalition and that we have no idea. Anyway, my actual thoughts.

-Among the first four states, NH and SC are the only ones he has a chance of. He could possibly win Southern NH by enough to cancel out the northern parts of the state, and get a small plurality there. Then, momentum would get him a decent-sized SC win. This leads to this sort of map:

Kirsten Gilibrand
Kamala Harris
Kanye West
Sherrod Brown

So Kanye wins on a black-young coalition by being Bernie with appeal to African-Americans, I guess.

Oh yeah I can totally see Kanye West winning the Dakotas, Montana, Maine, Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas.

And why would he be appealing in the white flight Boston exurbia region that is southern NH?

#Dakotans4Kanye

Also no way the Northwest votes for Kanye after he appropriated our name.

[BaldEagle1991]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

I'm indicating that it would be difficult for him to build a winning coalition and that we have no idea. Anyway, my actual thoughts.

-Among the first four states, NH and SC are the only ones he has a chance of. He could possibly win Southern NH by enough to cancel out the northern parts of the state, and get a small plurality there. Then, momentum would get him a decent-sized SC win. This leads to this sort of map:

Kirsten Gilibrand
Kamala Harris
Kanye West
Sherrod Brown

So Kanye wins on a black-young coalition by being Bernie with appeal to African-Americans, I guess.

Oh yeah I can totally see Kanye West winning the Dakotas, Montana, Maine, Wyoming, Nebraska and Kansas.

And why would he be appealing in the white flight Boston exurbia region that is southern NH?

#Dakotans4Kanye

Also no way the Northwest votes for Kanye after he appropriated our name.

I'm gonna assume by the time the primaries hit the NW, he'll be the presumptive nominee, and all of them would be walkways.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I'll sum it up in one word: anger. If anger boils over on the left, they'll want a way of giving the middle finger to the DNC first, then the right. It's not just black millennials. I could see lots of young people going for him if he talks a tough enough talk.

Granted, that wouldn't be enough for him to beat another candidate one-on-one, but Democrats will probably be lining up to take on Trump, so the establishment/not green tea party vote could get split between a ton of candidates, which might make Kanye's base the biggest. I could also see Kanye as having the most enthusiastic supporters, which would help him in caucuses (assuming that those still exist in 2020). Yes, Democratic super delegates would rather sell their soul to the devil than get behind Kanye, but they'd need to get behind one other candidate en masse, rather than being split among several.

I'm not saying it's likely, but it would be foolish not to take his bid at least somewhat seriously, and try to get behind someone else before it's too late. Never underestimate the ability of people to make irrational decisions when they're angry. Case in point, the 2016 election.

Well I'd say that the main beneficiary of anger against Trump likely wouldn't be a guy who admitted he didn't vote and said he would've voted for Trump if he did.

anger is rarely logical

you wouldn't have expected the main beneficiary of anger against (((globalism))) or w/e to be the billionaire who owes nine digits to the bank of china and goldman sachs and has been bailed out twice by a saudi prince, and yet…

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

Winning Iowa or New Hampshire isn't necessarily needed.

Hillary won IA by 4 "delegate-equivalents", but the media narrative was all about a bunch of coin tosses that may or may not have determined the winner, how much the state hated Hillary, how weak she was, and about how it was really a tie - so it doesn't really count as a win. She then proceeded to get squashed in New Hampshire. But no worry - she had the minority vote. NV gave her a mild scare because of negative momentum post-NH, but after that she was able to run through the south, winning by landslides across the region. Bernie never recovered.

Bill Clinton lost both IA and NH in the 1992 primaries. But no worry, he had the south behind him, and won the nomination that way.

My point: IA and NH are overrated in the democratic primaries.

[Stranger in a strange land]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

Winning Iowa or New Hampshire isn't necessarily needed.

Hillary won IA by 4 "delegate-equivalents", but the media narrative was all about a bunch of coin tosses that may or may not have determined the winner, how much the state hated Hillary, how weak she was, and about how it was really a tie - so it doesn't really count as a win. She then proceeded to get squashed in New Hampshire. But no worry - she had the minority vote. NV gave her a mild scare because of negative momentum post-NH, but after that she was able to run through the south, winning by landslides across the region. Bernie never recovered.

Bill Clinton lost both IA and NH in the 1992 primaries. But no worry, he had the south behind him, and won the nomination that way.

My point: IA and NH are overrated in the democratic primaries.

I know most of you think Kanye is going to win SC by getting 90%+ of the Black vote in SC, and then ride that wave to the nomination, but I just don't see that happening: Kanye likely won't even be the only Black candidate running, and I have a hard time seeing him getting the Black Church Establishment behind him even if he is. This is the real key to winning the Southern Black Vote, not being Black: look at Al Sharpton's 2004 performance.

[Figueira]

He could somehow win black voters and urban white voters? But if you'd asked the same thing about Donald Trump in late 2012, what would any of us had said?

It all depends on context

So you are literally just saying "but Trump" and "blacks/Millennials", without addressing any of the counterpoints to that.

Also how does he win Iowa or New Hampshire that way?

I'm indicating that it would be difficult for him to build a winning coalition and that we have no idea. Anyway, my actual thoughts.

-Among the first four states, NH and SC are the only ones he has a chance of. He could possibly win Southern NH by enough to cancel out the northern parts of the state, and get a small plurality there. Then, momentum would get him a decent-sized SC win. This leads to this sort of map:

Kirsten Gilibrand
Kamala Harris
Kanye West
Sherrod Brown

So Kanye wins on a black-young coalition by being Bernie with appeal to African-Americans, I guess.

Why would he do better in southern than northern NH?